Inside Dems' thinking on saving Mike Johnson

Democrats are increasingly open to the idea of voting to protect Speaker Mike Johnson against an ouster attempt, putting him in a stronger than expected position even with a razor-thin majority.

More than two dozen Democrats told POLITICO they expect a swath of the party to step in and save the Republican speaker following his decision to buck conservative members of his party and support military aid to Ukraine.

“I don’t think we should penalize a speaker for doing the right thing,” said Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), a former majority leader.

For weeks, many in the party have signaled they would vote to sink a speaker-deposing motion if Johnson brought the long-awaited package up for a House vote. Many Democrats are loath to repeat the month of chaos last fall, after they unanimously joined with eight Republicans to terminate Kevin McCarthy's speakership.

And as the foreign aid package heads to President Joe Biden's desk, Democrats widely see protecting Johnson as outweighing any political benefits that would result from weeks of more House GOP pandemonium.

“We've seen what's happened with the first ouster, and now we have a second speaker. We’ve seen what's happening with the paralysis that this has caused, the inability to move the budget forward,” said Rep. Troy Carter (D-La.). “Democrats are being the adults at the party. We have a country to provide for. We have a world to keep safe.”

If Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) triggered the ouster vote, Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) predicted “the majority of Democrats will" back Johnson.

A GOP leader staying in power thanks to support from Democrats would have been unthinkable before last year. It's a sign of just how far conservative stonewalling has pushed the House, with both parties increasingly open to working across the aisle in split government — especially when the alternative is caving to a faction more inclined to tank legislation than compromise.

It will undoubtedly cause other headaches for Johnson, including hardliners possibly triggering multiple votes to terminate his speakership, but many Democrats said they're willing to keep backing him if he stays in their good graces.

“What I do in the future depends on what happens in the future. With the national security package, the speaker showed he was a leader worth saving,” Trump-district Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) said in a statement to POLITICO. “So if he keeps acting the same way, I’d keep voting the same way. I wouldn’t vote for him in an election for speaker, of course. But that’s a much different circumstance.”

To be clear, Democrats would likely vote to block a motion to oust Johnson, which would be more politically palatable for the caucus rather than a direct referendum on the speaker himself. And there's always room for last-minute hijinks, a lesson McCarthy learned when he trashed Democrats in a TV interview immediately after they helped him prevent a shutdown — inciting anger on the left at the exact point he needed help. But for now, the support Johnson needs from across the aisle is his to lose.

Purple-district Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.) declined to commit to a specific vote on the motion to vacate but said “the fact that Speaker Johnson found the courage to do the right thing — to do his job — and remain true to his word means a good deal to a legislator like me. Trust is foundational, and it's something we absolutely did not have with Speaker McCarthy. At the end of the day, I know that the constituents in my district want a functional Congress, not more political infighting.”

And while many Republicans don't trust current Democratic signaling — recalling September rumblings about Democrats considering lending a hand to McCarthy that didn't pan out — Johnson hasn’t generated the kind of ill will across the aisle that his predecessor did.

Though the Louisiana Republican is more ideologically conservative, he has earned begrudging plaudits from the opposing party. Unlike McCarthy, Democrats see him as an honest broker, particularly after he put a foreign aid package on the House floor that largely mirrored the original Senate-passed version that they wanted.

“I’m not inclined to reward extreme politicians who want to punish the speaker for working across the aisle and sending long-awaited aid to our allies, and I expect many of my colleagues feel the same way,” said Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.).

Greene has vowed she will force a vote, though she hasn't committed to a specific timeline, and two other conservatives have publicly endorsed the push. If it fails the first time, some Democrats privately believe his conference could give him a pass and not attempt to overthrow him again, especially if the anti-Johnson bloc is limited to Greene and her allies. Special elections in May and June may also weigh in his favor, increasing the GOP's margin in the House slightly, from its current minuscule one vote.

Centrist Democrats who helped Republicans advance and pass the foreign aid package have privately gamed out the so-called motion to vacate and what it would take to prevent the speaker’s defenestration. Mostly, Democrats are willing to help the speaker regardless of any sort of deal, but that hasn't stopped speculation over some sort of power-sharing agreement among the minority party.

"I would be one of the first to raise my hand and say that I want to be part of that conversation, to see if we can really govern together or be in a position where he's able to govern and bring those bipartisan bills. I have said, over and over, that bringing us bipartisan bills is such a huge part of this role as speaker right now, and that those bills will pass. We just need them," said Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio).

At the same time, many in the party are unlikely to get too far ahead of their leadership, who have been publicly circumspect on how they could handle the motion. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries didn’t bring up a motion to boot Johnson during a closed-door caucus meeting before the foreign aid vote Saturday and has indicated he still wants House Democrats to discuss the path forward if conservatives trigger the vote.

One moderate Republican was optimistic Tuesday that Johnson will be able to keep his job in the end.

"I know that so many of us are proud of Mike Johnson and we really stand with him, so he shouldn't be fearful," Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) said. "A good leader isn't fearful of what people think. They always are there to do the right thing, and he did that in this situation."

Jordain Carney contributed to this report.