20 Tough Questions about the Auto Industry in 2018

01) Is our fearless leader really going to turn back fuel-economy regulations?

Fuel-economy requirements through the 2021 model year were set five years ago and are as impervious to change as German dietary preferences. Model years 2022 through 2025, on the other hand, are at risk. The Environmental Protection Agency pulled its final decision for that period ahead by more than a year during President Obama’s last months in office, but, in March, President Trump ordered the EPA to review the regulation and potentially cut back from the 54.5-mpg fleet-­average goal set for 2025. Despite the EPA concluding in January that current rules would become permanent, the agency also has the authority to, well, backtrack. Those opposed to rolling back regulations will point to the EPA’s 1217-page technical report from July 2016, which determined that automakers would have no trouble complying, but the EPA could just as easily write a 1218-page document that explains otherwise. A final rule could be published in the federal register and amend U.S. code as soon as the fall of 2018.

But Americans, and in this case, specifically Californians, live to challenge laws and overturn them. Since the Clean Air Act of 1970, California has set stricter vehicle standards than the EPA through a legal waiver. The California Air Resources Board enforces these standards, which 13 other states follow. No administration has ever loosened California’s bear grip on emissions. Automakers that don’t want to be banished from the country’s largest auto market dare not challenge the standards. Since a 2007 Supreme Court ruling that found carbon dioxide to be a pollutant that endangers human health, the EPA is supposed to be a hard-ass on our tailpipes no matter what. Environmental lawyers are locked and loaded for what could be an onslaught of litigation fighting any changes.

02) Which electrification strategy is winning out?

By our count, there are 81 different models on the market for 2018 offering some degree of electrification. Not surprisingly, traditional hybrids are the most common, but plug-ins—particularly among luxury brands—are closing the gap as carmakers seek to deemphasize internal combustion for the benefit of their shareholders’ consciences.

03) How much do cars contribute to global warming, anyway?

For comparative purposes, greenhouse gases are all normalized to CO2 equivalents, or CO2e. In 2015, the U.S. (excluding territories) generated 6540 million metric tons of CO2e.

04) Have we hit peak supercar?

Supercars are still a tiny part of the global car business, but the segment is growing, offering more choice than just whether you want a red or yellow Italian Stallion. New players have entered the market—McLaren is the most obvious—and the number of models and total sales has also expanded. If there’s a ceiling to what the ultrarich are prepared to pay, carmakers have yet to hit it. Both the Aston Martin Valkyrie and forthcoming Formula 1–inspired Mercedes-AMG Project One sold out practically as soon as they were announced, despite price tags above $2.5 million. And things are set to get busier. Aston wants to make a less expensive mid-engined car, and Chevrolet’s decision to make the next Corvette mid-engined could democratize the whole game.

05) What is stopping the feds from regulating phone use in cars?

They’re trying, but the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, created during the era of rotary phones, has no legal authority over any handheld device. Nor does any other federal law or agency regulate how manufacturers of consumer electronics design their user interfaces or functionality, let alone what the devices can do in a car. Not that legal authority would automatically lead to a fix; preventing drivers from being distracted by their smartphones would mean either blocking all smartphone use in a vehicle or identifying which phone is the ­driver’s and forcing only that one into a silent mode. The former is politically unfeasible, while the latter involves many significant technical hurdles.

Still, in November, NHTSA issued guidelines to the consumer electronics industry, just as it did in 2013 for factory infotainment systems. Android Auto and Apple CarPlay follow much of the agency’s wish list—limiting text, graphics, and videos; simplifying menus; and enabling control of the phone through the car’s system—to reduce a driver’s temptation to thumb the phone. NHTSA wants phones, as well as aftermarket stereo head units and GPS devices, to automatically lock out certain functions depending on the car’s selected gear and speed. It also wants detection technologies that reliably identify driver and passenger phones without such tech being “overly annoying” to users. The agency will score one major victory with the fall release of Apple’s newest iPhone operating system, which includes a Do Not Disturb While Driving mode that blocks all incoming notifications—although the feature only works if the user enables it.

And NHTSA’s guidelines are voluntary, meaning that the states are the front line in this battle. Forty-seven of them already ban texting while driving, while 14 ban any handheld use. But, according to NHTSA, the number of nonfatal distraction-related crashes involving cellphones increased 41 percent between 2007 and 2014, when many of these laws were enacted.

06) Will car buying ever be as easy as upgrading a cellphone?

A few automakers hope so. In California, Hyundai sells the Ioniq Electric like a cellphone subscription. You choose from one of three monthly prices with all fees and options baked in. While this deal is technically a lease, none of the varying finance charges or dealer add-ons that inevitably inflate a manufacturer’s advertised number apply. And Toyota is one year into a pilot fixed-price program called Lexus Plus, currently running at 11 of Lexus’s 238 dealerships scattered across the country. Some experts see the model gaining traction with younger generations, who may not be as keen to negotiate, but no such sweeping change is on the immediate horizon. If you’re in the market now or will be soon, better hone your haggle game.

07) Will the 12-volt electrical architecture go away?

As automakers lean on power-hungry hardware such as electric compressors, the humble 12-volt battery will die hard—just not for another 20 years or so. Raj Rajkumar, an IEEE fellow and a professor of electrical and computer engineering at Carnegie Mellon, says cars will likely use 48-volt subsystems in addition to the 12-volt—as the Bentley Bentayga does—in a transitional phase. But once the switch is made, 48-volt wiring harnesses will be thinner and lighter than the 12-volt apparatus.

08) Are touchscreens really an improvement?

To designers trying to squeeze more functionality into cars, touchscreens, which can pack hundreds of functions into a single interface, remain a godsend. To a driver trying to locate a seldom-used control while wearing polarized sunglasses and heading toward the setting sun, the benefits seem less obvious. Automakers are throwing resources at developing their user interfaces, but it’s fair to say that none has managed to come close to the intuitive simplicity of a decent tablet or smartphone.

The touchscreen of a $100,000 car often lacks the smarts of a $400 iPad, requiring several separate inputs to do something that used to be possible with one button, such as changing a radio station. More manufacturers are following Tesla’s lead and abolishing even conventional ventilation controls, with cars like the next Audi A6 becoming screen-only. But Honda, which committed so thoroughly to screen-based systems that it put two in some cars, has recently begun adding old-fashioned volume knobs back into certain vehicles. We’re betting that within a decade, some bright spark will be marketing a dial that adjusts the temperature as a radical innovation.