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(Bloomberg) -- Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world threatened by trade wars. Sign up here. It’s either going to be a boom fourth quarter for U.S. farmers, or that extra $12.5 billion in American agriculture purchases promised by China for this year isn’t happening.That’s what the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates on export numbers released on Thursday indicate.The agency is predicting a $3.9 billion bump for exports to China in the year ended Sept. 30, leaving a whopping amount of corn, pork, soy and other purchases to be made in the last three months of the year to reach the trade accord goal.China pledged to buy an additional $12.5 billion in U.S. agricultural goods this year on top of 2017 levels, which were already much larger than last year. The USDA forecasts, while lower than the market expects, likely mean it will be difficult for China to reach its commitments, said Dan Basse, president of consulting firm AgResource.“There’s still a lot of uncertainty out there in terms of ‘will the Chinese comply?’” Basse said in an interview Thursday at the USDA’s annual outlook forum, where the agency released the estimates.If the increase is only about $4 billion by September, it’s likely the U.S. “may have to act in terms of putting additional tariffs back on the Chinese and reinvigorating the trade war,” Basse said.To be fair, there’s some fine print here. First, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said at the forum that purchases are likely to be higher than those estimates, which were laid out by USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson.Second, the USDA figures don’t include shipments of commodities including ethanol and seafood, which are part of the trade deal. And lastly, the fourth quarter is typically when Chinese purchases pick up anyway due to the timing of grain and oilseeds harvests. Soybeans have historically made up a large bulk of Chinese purchases.It should also be noted that firm commitments for individual commodities weren’t publicly announced as part of the trade deal, so it’s yet to be seen how exactly the buying will come to fruition.USDA Forecasts for 2020 Agricultural Exports (Table)The USDA’s export numbers include the agency’s best forecast for the impact of the China deal and the spread of the deadly coronavirus, based on market prices and other factors, Johansson said.“It’s certainly feasible to get to the phase-one commitments in a number of different pathways,” he said, adding that be believed purchases would be weighted toward the fourth quarter. “Whether they do or they don’t will depend on a number of things.”For his part, Secretary Perdue said he expects China to “live up” to the deal, and purchases will start ramping up in the northern hemisphere Spring once disruptions from the coronavirus subside. And if China doesn’t follow through, the U.S. could retaliate with more tariffs, he said.The USDA outlook figures aren’t based on “the terms of the agreement that are yet to play out in the market place,” Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Censky said. “They are really trying to base on market signals and what’s really happening in the markets.”“We haven’t seen a big pickup of Chinese buying yet and so they are tempering things about what’s actually happening in the market place, that’s part of it,” he said. “The other part of it -- it doesn’t reflect the full calendar year of the deal.”(Updates with additional comments starting in 11th paragraph. In an earlier version of the story, USDA corrected to show the export estimate doesn’t exclude pet food in eighth paragraph)To contact the reporters on this story: Isis Almeida in Chicago at email@example.com;Mike Dorning in Washington at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: James Attwood at email@example.com, Millie MunshiFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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