Rep. Raúl Grijalva to stay in Arizona during his cancer treatment, widening GOP majority in DC

U.S. Rep. Raúl Grijalva, D-Ariz., will remain in Arizona while he undergoes treatment for cancer, temporarily widening the Republicans’ narrow House majority for votes that occur during that time.

Grijalva, who has represented the Tucson area in Congress since 2003, announced his diagnosis April 2. Jason Johnson, a spokesperson for Grijalva’s office, said he does not currently have a timeline for the congressman's return.

Grijalva has not disclosed additional details of his medical situation, such as the type of cancer or stage of his illness.

Because Republicans control the House, Grijalva’s absence likely won’t shift the chamber’s overall balance of power, said Norman Ornstein, a political scientist and scholar with the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank based in D.C. But it will give the Republicans greater breathing room as the GOP majority is hanging by a thread.

“You’ve got somebody breathing down your neck, but a little bit further away,” he said.

In 2022, Republicans won control of the 435-member House, 222-213. Their majority has shrunk since then as several Republicans have announced their resignations, and the party lost a special election to replace the embattled Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., whom the House voted to expel after a series of scandals.

The upcoming resignation of Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., will shrink the GOP majority further, to 217-213. At that margin, in a party-line vote, Republican-led legislation would fail if just two GOP members vote with the Democrats.

Grijalva’s absence effectively will widen that margin by one more vote, Ornstein said.

Even under typical circumstances, where the party in power has a larger majority, Ornstein said, “Losing a member is difficult. It can be difficult on committees, it can be difficult for constituents, although staff can carry on a lot of that work.”

“But given the precariousness of the Republican majority, it’s not anything Democrats wanted to see, outside of just the sadness that Raúl is facing cancer.”

It also could influence the unlikely scenario that control of the House flips to Democrats even before the November elections, Ornstein said.

“It’s at least possible that a half-dozen of them could end up seriously ill and hospitalized for a period of days and weeks,” he speculated, noting that many House Republicans say they have not been vaccinated for COVID-19. “It’s also possible that they’ll have more resignations. It’s a very unhappy group."

The narrowness of the Republicans’ majority has given more leverage to the GOP members willing to break ranks with their own party. Last year, eight Republican members, including two from Arizona, voted with the Democrats to oust Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., as House speaker — a move sufficient to paralyze the House for weeks as the GOP scrambled to agree on a new leader.

Grijalva, 76, represents Arizona’s 7th Congressional District, which stretches along the state's border with Mexico. The district includes parts of Yuma, Tucson and Nogales and some of the Phoenix area. His current term ends in 2025.

Grijalva has said his congressional office and constituent services will remain open while he undergoes treatment.

Laura Gersony covers national politics for the Arizona Republic. Contact her at lgersony@gannett.com or 480-372-0389.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Grijalva to stay in AZ during cancer treatment, widening GOP majority