Knoxville spring weather: Hot or cold? Rain or snow? What to expect in the forecast

After a winter that blanketed Knoxville in 10 inches of snow, what weather surprises could spring possibly bring?

Most of the continental U.S. is predicted to have above-average temperatures over the next few months, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Spring outlook. The entire country also has a lower-than-average flood risk, partly because of historically low winter snow cover across the Upper Great Plains and western U.S.

Aligning with the predictions, the Southeast, including Tennessee, has a chance of having slightly above-average temperatures and precipitation from April to June.

Here’s what experts forecast for Knoxville and East Tennessee.

What’s the 2024 spring outlook for Knoxville and East Tennessee?

Temperatures and precipitation are expected to be “somewhat above average this spring” in East Tennessee, NOAA meteorologist Anthony Artusa said in a statement to Knox News.

“The 2024 Spring Outlook for the Knoxville/East Tennessee area calls for about a 45% chance for warmer-than-normal temperatures and about a 40-45% chance for wetter-than-normal conditions,” Artusa said.

The average temperatures for April, May and June are between 60 and 75 degrees, according to NWS Morristown data. Average precipitation for each of those months is just over 4 inches.

The seasonal outlook does not specifically predict rain, snow, freezing rain or sleet, Artusa noted. “Precipitation” in this context means all liquid precipitation and applies to the whole season, not individual days.

Is more snow coming to Knoxville this year?

But could we get any more snow before the warm days reign?

“This late in the season, that's pretty unusual,” NWS Morristown meteorologist Lyle Wilson told Knox News on March 25. “Certainly, it's not impossible, and especially in the higher elevations in the mountains."

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Forecasts for snow, freezing rain and rain are best predicted around five days ahead of a system, Artusa said.

Does Knoxville get tornadoes in spring?

The warmer- and wetter-than-average spring does not necessarily mean an increased risk of severe storms or tornadoes, Wilson said. But we are headed into the peak season for severe weather.

The peak period for tornadoes in East Tennessee is in April, according to climate data. There’s a slightly higher occurrence of hail in May and the peak for damaging winds is in June.

How will spring affect drought conditions in East Tennessee?

Multiple wildfires raged across East Tennessee last year due to extreme drought conditions. Though parts of West Tennessee are dry, East Tennessee is not currently in a drought, according to the most recent drought report, released March 19.

Drought conditions in East Tennessee are not expected to worsen during spring. And conditions are expected to improve in the western part of the state.

“Right now, we're not in any drought. If we do indeed see above normal precipitation, that would, of course, lower the risk of anything, at least long-term in that period,” Wilson said.

What is the Farmers’ Almanac forecast for Knoxville?

The Farmers’ Almanac’s forecast mirrors NOAA’s spring outlook. The almanac is forecasting a warmer and wetter spring for the Knoxville area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in April with temperatures 3 degrees above average and precipitation 3 inches above average.

But just remember, climate outlooks are not absolutes, Wilson said. Spring, which ends June 19, still could bring some unexpected surprises.

Devarrick Turner is a trending news reporter. Email devarrick.turner@knoxnews.com. On X, formerly known as Twitter @dturner1208.

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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Knoxville weather: Spring 2024 forecast for East Tennessee