What to know about Trump's abortion announcement

Former President Donald Trump is trying to appease competing factions within the Republican Party with his announcement that abortion policies should be left to the states.

It’s part of an attempt by Trump to neutralize the issue ahead of a campaign in which President Joe Biden’s team is expected to spend millions reminding voters that Trump helped overturn Roe and of the consequences families have faced since.

Early returns show Trump maintains the support of his base, even those disappointed by the decision.

But the 4-minute video on Truth Social, which comes after months of uncertainty over exactly where Trump stood on one of the most divisive issues of the campaign, is notable for what was not said: Trump didn’t rule out signing a national abortion ban, though it is unlikely Congress would be able to pass one. He did not mention executive actions he could take without Congress that could curb access to abortion, even in blue states.

The former president has also been mum on how he will vote in Florida’s ballot initiative, which would guarantee abortion access up to when the baby is viable outside the womb, roughly 24 weeks into a pregnancy.

Here are six takeaways:

Abortion opponents wanted Trump to endorse national restrictions. He didn’t.

Anti-abortion advocates acknowledge Republicans are unlikely to have 60 votes in the Senate needed to enact federal restrictions on abortion in the near future. Still, some had hoped Trump would come out in favor a 15-week federal limit on abortion — and were dismayed that he didn’t.

Instead, Trump said abortion access is up to the states.

Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, one of the most politically powerful and well-funded anti-abortion groups, said her organization was “deeply disappointed” by Trump’s decision not to embrace a 15-week federal limit.

“Unborn children and their mothers deserve national protections and national advocacy from the brutality of the abortion industry,” she said. “Saying the issue is ‘back to the states’ cedes the national debate to the Democrats.”

Still, anti-abortion groups remain committed to helping Trump win in November.

During the GOP presidential primary, Dannenfelser’s organization promised to oppose any presidential candidate who “refuses to embrace” a 15-week limit on abortion and said that leaving abortion up to the states is a “morally indefensible position for a self-proclaimed pro-life presidential candidate to hold.” But with Trump now the presumptive Republican nominee, she said Monday her organization will “work tirelessly to defeat President Biden and extreme congressional Democrats.”

Other anti-abortion groups — including Students for Life, the Faith and Freedom Coalition, the Family Research Council, National Right to Life and CatholicVote — made or reiterated similar promises on Monday.

Independent pollsters said Trump’s decision to avoid taking a position on federal abortion restrictions is unlikely to hurt his standing with anti-abortion voters — though they also aren’t sure how it would help him at the ballot box, either.

“While his other issues stances, such as on immigration, are politically beneficial, abortion is one of the rare instances where his stance actually looks calculated,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Some of his religiously conservative backers may be slightly disappointed but there really is no risk that he's going to lose any of them because of this. At the same time, it's not clear whether it is enough to counter the losses Republicans have suffered since Dobbs.”

Restricting abortion at the state level is complicated.

Abortion is illegal in all but the narrowest of circumstances in roughly a quarter of the country, including essentially all of the southeastern United States. But the issue is far from settled.

There are regular battles over the scope of medical exemptions, with physicians fearful that an error in judgment could land them in prison. There are two abortion cases before the Supreme Court as conservatives have sought to use the judicial system to limit access to the abortion pill, mifepristone, nationwide and questioned whether a federal law designed to protect people during medical emergencies supersedes state anti-abortion statutes. And there are efforts underway to push legislators further and pass new laws that would ban the destruction of frozen embryos created during in vitro fertilization.

The country’s patchwork abortion access landscape has, so far, done little to curb the number of pregnancies that are terminated. The total number of abortions have increased since Roe was overturned, with many women traveling across state lines to access care.

Anti-abortion advocates are reading between the lines.

The easiest way for Trump to move the needle on abortion policy during a second term is through executive action — a topic he did not address Monday. Anti-abortion advocates told POLITICO they don’t view Trump’s declaration that abortion should be left to the states as an indication that he has ruled out using administrative levers to curb abortion during his second term, such as through enforcement of the federal Comstock Act, an 1873 long-dormant law that bans mail delivery of “lewd or lascivious material,” including contraceptives and drugs used for abortion.

“There’s a lot the president still can do — and must do and that we’ll be pushing him to do — because as Joe Biden has brilliantly, yet tragically, demonstrated in the past two years, abortion is very much a federal issue, even when you’re not talking about a federal prevention act,” said Kristan Hawkins, president of Students for Life Action.

Trump also did not say he’d veto anti-abortion legislation should it reach his desk, nor did he weigh in on whether he’d instruct the FDA to curb access to mifepristone, the commonly-used abortion pill.

Abortion opponents and conservative organizations, like the Heritage Project, hope Trump will revive restrictions on abortion pills and domestic and international clinics offering contraception, undo the expansion of HIPAA privacy rules to cover abortions, use the Federal Trade Commission to prosecute virtual clinics that prescribe abortion pills to people in states with restrictions, roll back policies to allow abortion pills to be available by mail and at retail pharmacies, and use the EPA to classify chemicals in abortion pills as “forever chemicals” subject to tighter regulation.

“The legal authority to protect this fundamental right to life has not only been restored to the states but also to policymakers at the federal level, where broad support exists to not force taxpayers to pay for abortion,” said Tony Perkins, chairman of the Family Research Council.

Trump spoke about IVF — and left other issues unresolved.

The former president opened his remarks by supporting IVF. Polls show the procedure is overwhelmingly popular and the GOP faced a wave of backlash earlier this year when an Alabama court ruled that frozen embryos are people, causing some clinics to temporarily suspend services.

Some Republicans, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, have struggled to square their support for IVF with the belief that life begins at conception. Trump’s remarks show he does not want that to be an issue for his campaign.

But the video leaves many questions unanswered, and Trump will likely be asked in the coming days whether he will vote in favor of Florida’s six-week abortion ban in November. He has called the measure, which Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis signed into law last year, a “terrible mistake.”

Trump also said he supports exceptions for rape and incest, which many states that restrict abortion do not have. Expect him and his campaign to be pressed on whether he’d like to see states amend their laws.

Democrats will keep tying Republicans to abortion, no matter the position they take.

For months, Democrats have pilloried Trump — and virtually every other Republican candidate — as extreme on abortion. Monday was no different.

In the wake of Trump’s announcement, the Biden campaign, national Democrats and abortion-rights advocates continued to highlight how Trump’s appointment of three conservative justices to the Supreme Court was key to overturning Roe, tied him to state-level abortion bans with no exceptions for rape and incest, and noted that as president he appointed anti-abortion officials throughout his administration.

Shortly after, the Biden campaign put out a new digital ad spotlighting “Amanda,” a Texas woman who suffered a miscarriage and nearly died after doctors refused to perform an abortion. “Trump did this,” the campaign said in a post to Biden’s account.

“Trump is scrambling. He's worried that since he's the one responsible for overturning Roe the voters will hold him accountable in 2024. Well, I have news for Donald. They will,” Biden said in a statement. “America was built on personal freedom and liberty. So, there is nothing more un-American than having our personal freedoms taken away. And that is what Donald Trump has done.”

Trump’s statement gives cover to Republicans down the ballot to punt on abortion.

Had Trump supported a 15-week federal limit on abortion as many thought he might, Republican candidates across the country would have likely been forced to stake out similar positions. The former president’s decision to leave it to the states gives down-ballot Republicans much more flexibility to punt on a national abortion ban as well, and allows blue-state Republicans in the House to deflect accusations that their re-election imperils abortion access in states like California or New York.

It’s a message swing state candidates like Kari Lake, the Republican contender for Senate in Arizona, have been telegraphing. Like Trump, Lake has said abortion should be left to the states to decide and that there is no role for the federal government in regulating abortion.

“I’m interested in, from a federal level, maybe offering baby bonuses and paid family leave, so that moms can take that time off that they need,” Lake told POLITICO earlier this year.