How far will the fallout from the end of Tammy Murphy's Senate campaign reach? | Stile

The stunning collapse of Tammy Murphy’s campaign for the U.S. Senate will reverberate for years. Here is a look at some of the fallout from Sunday’s announcement:

Candidate quality matters

The New Jersey first lady's candidacy relied on the power of social media to reach voters and promote her image as a new-era, progressive Democrat while also counting on the old-school party machines to deliver the vote. And, of course, her ability to raise money.

Yet, in the end, Murphy’s inexperience shone through through the careful packaging. Perhaps one of the more telling moments was her response to questions about abolishing the filibuster, the tradition in the U.S. Senate that allows the minority party to stall or kill legislation.

In recent years, abolishing or reforming the practice has been a top priority of Senate Democrats, who view it as the biggest impediment to implementing their agenda, but when, in late January, New York magazine asked what her position was, Murphy replied, “I don’t know. I haven’t given it a lot of thought other than I hate it when I watch it.”

Her campaign walked that back with Business Insider, declaring that she was, in fact, in favor of ending the practice. Yet, in another interview with New Jersey Monitor, Murphy called the filibuster a “very useful piece of the puzzle” of Senate deliberation as long as the practice isn’t abused with frivolous debate.

Her chief opponent, Rep. Andy Kim, D-Burlington, seized on her zigzagging and said it risked further inflaming suspicions that Murphy, once a Republican, remained one at heart. Her Republican pedigree — she was registered with the party as late as 2014, a mark of Cain in a Democratic primary where hard-core partisans dominate the turnout — was taken as a sign by many in the Democrats' rank and file that she was not a candidate prepared for a high-stakes battle.

End of the line?

Kim, who says he didn’t get his phone calls returned from county bosses after he entered the race, cast himself as a buck-the-establishment outsider and portrayed Murphy as a byproduct of corroded machine politics. County chairmen in some of the largest Democratic counties certainly helped him make the case when they swiftly gave her their endorsements to Murphy. Those blessings, in turn, came with the county line on the June 4 ballot — a move that virtually assured her victory.

Kim challenged the constitutionality of the party line in federal court in a case that could be resolved as early as this week. The focus on the line and its inherent unfairness and anti-Democratic nature led to an unexpected wave of officials calling for the line to be abolished or reformed, including candidates for governor in 2025.

Looming over the issue is the U.S. district judge presiding over Kim’s lawsuit, Zahid N. Quraishi, who held a nine-hour hearing on the suit this month and could very well strike down the county line ballot format and order county clerks to scramble and replace it with a block design, in which candidates for the same office are grouped together, in time for the June 4 primary.

Now that Murphy is out of the contest, Quraishi may not feel the urgency to take such a drastic step. And in a dose of irony, Kim has also agreed to replace Murphy on the line in Democratic-rich counties that swiftly embraced her candidacy in November.

Kim, who is now the undisputed front-runner for the nomination, says he agreed to take that step because he didn’t want to cede that competitive advantage to the two remaining candidates, Patricia Campos-Medina and Lawrence Hamm, until the court case is resolved. But his decision at least temporarily to embrace the practice should also prompt Quraishi to hit the pause button.

Will the machine double down?

Despite the growing chorus of officials calling for reforming the ballot, do not expect the influential party leaders to let the line go quietly into the dustbin of New Jersey history.

That was the underlying message communicated by the confrontation at the Camden County Democratic Committee convention earlier this month when Campos-Medina was refused entry. Blocking her at the door were five burly goons who looked like they had just stepped off the set of “On The Waterfront.” They seemed unconcerned that they were denying access to a Latina woman, someone who is otherwise welcomed at a Democratic Party function.

And the message was this: “We couldn't care less about your calls for reform. We’ve swatted away you progressive pests in the past and we’ll do it again. This is the way we do things here and will always continue to do things unless you got a court order telling us to stop it. Now get lost.”

That defiance — in the house built by the power broker George E. Norcross III — is not entirely surprising, but there is a sense that a rising tide of change is seeping under the clubhouse door.

Attorney General Matthew Platkin’s motives

Nobody was closer or more loyal to the Murphys than New Jersey Attorney General Matthew Platkin. Gov. Phil Murphy, rewarding that loyalty, nominated Platkin to serve as attorney general and made his confirmation a priority despite steep resistance in the state Senate. So it came as a shock to see Platkin issue a late-hour letter to Quraishi declaring that he would not exercise his obligation to defend the law sustaining the line because he deemed it to be unconstitutional.

Platkin's poking his nose into the case clearly annoyed Quraishi, who labeled it lobbying from the “cheap seats.”

Still, the letter contributed to a growing gloom over the Murphy candidacy and a sense among many New Jersey Democrats that the line, and the county boss system, are on the way out. And Platkin's statement was seen as shocking — a Shakespearean act of betrayal. Without the county line, Murphy’s chances of winning had clearly become slim, and here was a Murphy loyalist pulling the rug out from under her.

“Et tu, Matthew?” the governor might say.

Platkin, realizing that the Murphys' influence is on the wane, may be looking over the horizon and aligning with the progressive wing of the state Democratic Party in preparation for his own run for governor — or a higher-profile job with a second Biden administration?

Fallout on Gov. Phil Murphy’s lame-duck term

County party leaders, who pledged their fealty to Murphy, are not happy with the outcome. Instead of a glide to a predictable victory, Murphy’s fumbled effort has put an unwanted spotlight on their power and methods. County leaders also came under a hail of criticism for their close ties to Murphy, including several who double as lobbyists with business interests before the governor's administration.

And to make matters worse, it was her husband’s attorney general who may have done them the most harm by refusing to defend the county line in court. Instead of clearing Murphy’s path to victory, Platkin put the governor and first lady in a state of siege. The spotlight was turned on them.

So, as you can imagine, Phil Murphy is the leader of an unhappy, possibly mutinous crew. Clearly, his political star has been dimmed — a short-timer who couldn’t muscle a Senate nomination for his wife.

But Murphy still has the power to dole out pork in the budget, sign coveted legislation and nominate judges and others sought by county leaders and legislators. He should be able to wield significant power. But machine-groomed lawmakers are not likely to champion any of Murphy’s final big-picture initiatives — unless there's a benefit to them, of course.

Charlie Stile: Tammy Murphy's campaign never caught fire. The line — and Trump — didn't help

Impact on 2025 NJ governor’s race

If the line is struck down, the 2025 race could be the first where candidates will no longer feel the pressure to kiss the ring of county bosses. Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, who has declared his candidacy, has already called for abolishing the line, and so has Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, another likely candidate.

But the fallen political stock value of the Murphys could complicate matters. While Rep. Josh Gottheimer, D-Wyckoff, another likely candidate, endorsed Murphy, so did Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-Montclair, who had forged close ties with the Murphys and appeared to have counted on their clout in what is already looking like a tight 2025 primary.

Charlie Stile is a veteran New Jersey political columnist. For unlimited access to his unique insights into New Jersey’s political power structure and his powerful watchdog work, please subscribe or activate your digital account today.

Email: stile@northjersey.com

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Tammy Murphy ends NJ Senate campaign: Here's the fallout