Fall TV Scoreboard: Our Guide to All the Hits and Flops

It’s been a strange fall TV season, to be sure. Ratings are down across the board for the broadcast networks (thanks a lot, Netflix), we’ve seen very few runaway hits, and we’re still waiting for our first official cancellation. Although that last one might just be a case of Hollywood doublespeak… but we’ll get to that in a minute.

Since there’s so little clarity with this fall’s crop of new shows, we thought we’d clear things up by dividing all the new shows into four broad categories. Then we’ll dive into how each show is doing in the ratings, and gauge its chances of surviving to see a Season 2. Read on as we try to make sense of a senseless TV season.

Certified Hits

Blindspot (NBC) — picked up for a full season
Dr. Ken (ABC) — picked up for a full season
Limitless (CBS) — picked up for a full season
Quantico (ABC) — picked up for a full season
Rosewood (Fox) — picked up for a full season
Supergirl (CBS)

One new show has definitely soared this fall: CBS’s Supergirl, which pulled in nearly 13 million viewers with last week’s debut, making it the fall’s most-watched freshman series. Its numbers did dip last night in Week 2, but with solid support from comic-book fans and critics alike, Season 2 is a lock for Kara Danvers and company. Ditto for Blindspot, which is trouncing fading veterans Castle and NCIS: L.A. among younger viewers. Sure, we could chalk up Blindspot’s success to a cushy timeslot following The Voice and a naked Jaimie Alexander — but even still, Jane Doe has more than enough tattoos left to decipher to justify a second season.

Related: ‘Blindspot’ Q&A: Creator Martin Gero on His Perfect Cast and All Those Tats

Critics took a scalpel to Ken Jeong’s ABC sitcom Dr. Ken, but ratings have been surprisingly healthy — 5.8 million viewers last week — following Last Man Standing on Friday nights. (Hey, critics never liked LMS, either, and it’s in Season 5!) Ken will survive to see next year, at least. Morris Chestnut’s Rosewood probably will, too, though that’s mostly thanks to the “halo effect” of airing before the mega-hit Empire on Wednesdays. CBS always spins procedurals into ratings gold, and Limitless has been a solid performer for them on Tuesdays, running neck-and-neck with NBC’s Chicago Fire. And Quantico looks like a multi-season winner for ABC: It’s on-brand with its sexy young FBI trainees, it has a breakout star in Priyanka Chopra, and it regularly outperforms its more established channel-mate Once Upon a Time on Sunday nights.

You’ll Get a Full Season, But…

Code Black (CBS)
Grandfathered (Fox) — picked up for a full season
The Grinder (Fox) — picked up for a full season
Life in Pieces (CBS) — picked up for a full season
The Muppets (ABC) — picked up for a full season
Scream Queens (Fox)

Just because a network orders a full season of episodes doesn’t mean that show is guaranteed a second season. Most of the shows in this category received that vote of confidence… but we see reasons for concern. Take Fox’s handsome-old-guys double-bill Grandfathered and The Grinder, for example: Both are critical favorites… but both also hover around 3 million total viewers. Fox’s whole schedule is in disarray, so these handsome devils might very well skate by for another year. But we wouldn’t be shocked if both are axed at year’s end. (If Fox picks one to keep, they’ll probably go with the slightly stronger-rated Grandfathered. Sorry, Rob Lowe.)

Video: ‘The Grinder’ Star Fred Savage Taste-Tests Halloween Treats

Scream Queens entered the season with plenty of hype, but its ratings have been, well, horrifying (2.6 million total viewers) — even among its target demo of younger viewers. If anyone else produced this show, we’d declare it one-and-done, but Fox wants to stay in the Ryan Murphy business, so they may give it another year, if only to keep him happy. The Muppets opened big for ABC (9 million viewers), but has tumbled into the 4-million range in recent weeks. Still, it pairs well with Fresh Off the Boat, and Disney/ABC loves synergy, so expect to see at least one more season of Miss Piggy yelling at poor Kermit.

Related: Why Isn’t ‘The Muppets’ More Successful?

The CBS medical drama Code Black pulls 6 million viewers a week, which would be a hit for any network… except CBS. Plus, it suffers from a terminal lack of buzz (admit it: You forgot it was even on the air, didn’t you?), so we can see CBS pulling the plug at season’s end. Life in Pieces is an interesting case: CBS’s single-camera family sitcom has performed okay so far on Mondays (8.5 million viewers)… but it airs after monster hit The Big Bang Theory, and loses half of Big Bang’s audience. The true test will come when Pieces has to stand on its own, probably around midseason; for now, we’re leaning towards CBS cutting its losses and starting fresh next season.

Never Mind the Euphemisms: It’s Canceled

Blood & Oil (ABC)
Minority Report (Fox)
The Player (NBC)
Truth Be Told (NBC)

Let’s cut through the showbiz mumbo-jumbo: “Having your episode order cut” is the new “canceled.” No, none of these shows are technically dead yet… but each has had their number of episodes reduced since they debuted, which all but guarantees they won’t be back for a second season. The axe will fall quietly, but rest assured, it will fall.

Related: ‘The Player’: This Is the Best of the Worst New Shows

And this is a motley lot plagued by bad ideas: Who wanted to see Minority Report turned into a muddled sci-fi cop show? Or another “racy” sitcom starring the likes of Mark-Paul Gosselaar (Truth Be Told)? Or a sluggish soap opera set in the North Dakota oil fields (Blood & Oil)? Not too many people, as it turns out. The Player at least had a glimmer of potential, with its endearingly goofy premise (rich people are wagering on crime!) and high-octane action set pieces. But it never got sampled opposite NFL football and ABC’s powerhouse How to Get Away With Murder. Lady Luck is a fickle mistress, indeed.

Still in Limbo

Best Time Ever With Neil Patrick Harris (NBC)
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (The CW)
Heroes Reborn (NBC)
Wicked City (ABC)

A handful of new shows are still straddling the line between renewal and cancellation… but none of them look particularly promising. ABC’s Wicked City is only in limbo because it just debuted (dismally); give the limp ‘80s slasher drama a few more weeks of bad ratings, and it’ll see its episode order slashed, too. Best Time Ever is a weird case; the Neil Patrick Harris variety hour did fine following The Voice, and has plummeted without that lead-in. But it always felt like a lark, anyway, so it wouldn’t surprise us if NBC just decided to bring it back as a series of holiday specials or summer filler. It’s certainly not the all-ages hit NBC was picturing when they gave it the greenlight, though.

Related: 5 Fall TV Stars Who Deserve Better

The revived Heroes is even weirder; the show was a pop-culture phenomenon during its original run, but we haven’t heard a peep about it since it returned. The numbers are mediocre, even by NBC standards (less than 4 million viewers last week), so we’re betting this resurrection ends after one season. And we finish up with Crazy Ex-Girlfriend: maybe the best new series of the fall, and definitely the most unique. It’s a musical rom-com with catchy original songs and a buoyant lead performance from newcomer Rachel Bloom. But the numbers don’t lie: a mere 670,000 total viewers last week. Ouch. That’s bad… even for The CW.

As much as we love it, Ex-Girlfriend feels destined to become one of those quirky one-season wonders we’ll always wish had stayed on the air longer. Although… with the way the TV business is changing, maybe it can. Maybe another outlet that’s willing to trade low ratings for high viewer loyalty will take a chance on this oddball. (It was originally developed for Showtime, and would’ve been a better fit on cable.) Maybe a network cancellation doesn’t necessarily mean the end of the road anymore. Netflix/Hulu/Amazon, are you listening?