Russia’s Kharkiv advance aims to stretch Ukraine’s forces thin
Semafor Signals
Insights from The New York Times, the Institute for the Study of War, and The Washington Post
The News
Russia’s offensive into Ukraine’s northeastern region of Kharkiv is driven less by a desire to seize territory than by a strategy to spread Kyiv’s forces thin, analysts said.
The Russian advance that began last week marks a new strategy, experts wrote in The New York Times, forcing Ukrainian troops to withdraw from several villages in recent days as they are outnumbered by Russian forces.
SIGNALS
Moscow wants to force Ukrainian troops into one area
Source: The New York Times
Russia’s strategy is to inundate one area with fighting and pull Ukraine’s troops into the same region, thereby leaving other parts of the front exposed, two military analysts wrote in The New York Times. It isn’t Moscow’s goal to take Kharkiv — rather, it wants “to menace it by advancing toward the city and threatening it with artillery,” Michael Kofman and Rob Lee noted. Russia doesn’t have the personnel to attack Kharkiv outright, but it aims to “create a dilemma” for Kyiv by drawing Ukraine’s better troops towards its second most populous city. Ultimately, Moscow is looking to control the region of Donetsk. By forcing Ukrainian redeployments to Kharkiv, Donetsk is left “even more vulnerable” they argued.
Shelling has prevented Ukraine from bolstering its defenses
Source: Institute for the Study of War
Ukrainian defense officials believe that Russia is trying to take the eastern towns of Lukyantsi and Vovchansk, areas that would give them good footing for a future advance on the city of Kharkiv, The Institute for the Study of War noted. Ukrainian troops have been able to fend off Russian forces from these areas through counterattacks and drone strikes, but Moscow’s near-constant shelling of the Kharkiv region has made it difficult for Ukraine to bolster its defenses near the Ukraine-Russia border, the ISW wrote. Russian troops have made “tactical advances” in the north of the region for the past week, it added, “and currently appear to be prioritizing the creation of a ‘buffer zone’ over a deep penetration into Kharkiv.”
Russian push caught Kyiv by surprise
Source: The Washington Post
Ukraine relies on Starlink, a satellite internet service owned by Elon Musk, to monitor for Russia’s movements. But on May 10, when Moscow began its new push towards Kharkiv, electronic jamming brought down the internet and Ukraine’s video feeds, The Washington Post reported. The attack left troops “completely blind,” a Ukrainian drone unit commander told the newspaper. “This was the biggest problem, we didn’t see how they were moving, we only worked through radio or through phones where they still worked,” he said. As a result, Russia was able to capture a stretch of territory near the two nations’ border.
