Will Rishi Sunak be prime minister at the next election – and who else could it be?

Rishi Sunak’s position as prime minister has come under threat in recent days from disgruntled Conservative MPs hoping to boost the party’s chances ahead of the next general election.

Several MPs are said to have been courting interest for a potential last-minute leadership race, with a group of back-bench Tories reportedly looking to replace Mr Sunak with the popular Penny Mordaunt before the next general election.

Leader of the House Ms Mordaunt has remained silent so far, but sources close to the MP for Portsmouth North have denied the rumours.

Recent polling has put Mr Sunak’s party as low as 24 per cent, while his tenure has been marred by several ministerial resignations in recent months.

The prime minister has so far resisted calls to announce the date of the next general election, with Labour activists dubbing him a ‘chicken’ at a recent protest outside of parliament.

It is against this backdrop that several Conservative MPs are said to be hoping Mr Sunak will resign rather than brave a severe general election defeat in the near future.

Should the prime minister be replaced, the party will see its sixth leader since 2010 – and third since the last election.

Here are some of the most likely candidates to replace Rishi Sunak if he resigns before the next general election:

Penny Mordaunt

Penny Mordaunt has served as the Conservative MP for Portsmouth North since 2010, and has been Leader of the House of Commons since 2022.

She raised her public profile significantly in May 2023 during her role in King Charles III’s coronation ceremony, where Ms Mordaunt carried and presented the bejewelled Sword of State to the King. The duty was carried out as part of her additional role as Lord President of the Privy council.

Ms Mordaunt has run for leader of the Conservative party twice, once in July 2022 and again in October 2022, after Liz Truss’ resignation. She was unable to secure sufficient parliamentary support either time.

Born in Torquay, Devon, Ms Mordaunt has strong links to the armed forces. Her father was a paratrooper, and from 2010-2015 she served as a navy reservist. Ms Mordaunt was also the first female Defence Minister during her brief three-month tenure in 2019.

For International Women’s Day 2024, Ms Mordaunt was recognised by The Independent as one of Britain’s most influential women.

Kemi Badenoch

Kemi Badenoch has served as MP for Saffron Walden since 2017, becoming Business Secretary in 2023 and Equalities Minister in 2022.

During her time as an MP, Ms Badenoch has regularly gained public attention for her outspokenness both in and out of parliament.

In 2021, the Equalities Minister came under pressure to resign from members of the government’s LGBT+ advisory panel over the failure to deliver on the 2019 manifesto pledge to ban conversion therapy.

Ms Badenoch has stressed her committment to banning the practice, but the plans have been repeatedly delayed, and still remain under consideration.

The London-born MP has degrees in both computer systems engineering and law, working in IT, banking and media before entering politics. Ms Badenoch has run for Conservative leader once following Boris Johnson’s resignation in 2022.

She has condemned the recent rumours of back-bench attempts to oust Mr Sunak, calling for the “small minority of MPs” to “stop it”.

Robert Jenrick

Becoming MP for Newark in 2014, Robert Jenrick has served as Health Minister, Housing Secretary and Immigration Minister during his ten years in parliament.

Mr Jenrick resigned from his most recent post as Immigration Minister in December 2023 over the government’s flagship Rwanda bill, claiming it “does not go far enough”.

He has since indicated strong intentions to become Tory leader in the future, saying in early 2024 that he was “not ruling it out”. He has not previously run in any Conservative leadership elections.

In 2021, Mr Jenrick was sacked as Housing Secretary following a string of controversies. In January 2020, he had unlawfully approved planning permission for £1bn luxury housing development put in by a Tory donor.

It was revealed Mr Jenrick had spoke to developer Richard Desmond at a fundraising dinner, after which the plans were expediated, with the minister helping Mr Desmond to avoid a local council levy of £30-50m. The scheme was scrapped following the revelations.

Mr Jenrick has strongly denied any wrong doing, saying in 2020: “I took that decision in good faith, with an open mind, and I’m confident that all the rules were followed in doing so.”

As Immigration Minister, Mr Jenrick came under heavy criticism in 2023 for requesting cartoon murals be painted over in a reception centre for unaccompanied child asylum-seekers. He said he did so as the cartoons were not “age appropriate”.

Grant Shapps

Grant Shapps has been MP for Welwyn Hatfield since 2005, serving in ten front bench roles during his political career. Five of these came between 2019-2023, with Mr Shapps now holding the position of Defence Secretary.

Some MPs have been calling for Mr Shapps to replace Mr Sunak, calling him the ‘unity candidate’ and a ‘safe, middle of the road’ choice, according to reports in the Express.

During the course of his long political career, Mr Shapps has been met with some controversies that have seen him lose favour with previous leaders.

In 2015, the MP was demoted in David Cameron’s cabinet following allegations he had edited his own Wikipedia page to paint himself in a more favourable light.

Mr Shapps has consistently denied being involved with the edits, with the Wikipedia Arbitration Committee finding no substantial evidence that the MP was linked to the account which had made the edits.

He ran for leader following Boris Johnson’s resignation in 2022. A source close to the MP has denied he is backing himself for an imminent leadership bid.

“He’s fully supportive of the PM and thinks it would be bonkers to destabilise the government and change leader and that everyone should pull together behind Rishi,” they said.

Tom Tugendhat

Tom Tugendhat has been the MP for Tonbridge and Malling since 2015 and became Security Minister in 2022.

Before joining parliament, Mr Tugendhat held roles as a journalist and in the British Army reserves, where he worked part-time as an officer, serving in the Iraq War and Afghanistan War.

His parliamentary career has often focused on foreign affairs, being elected as the youngest-ever chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee in 2017. He has been critical of the Russian state and president Vladimir Putin.

Mr Tugendhat belongs to the One Nation Conservatives group, estimated to include around 110 Conservative MPs. The group is seen as more socially liberal and centrist than other parts of the party.

Following Boris Johnson’s resignation in 2022, Mr Tugendhat was the first MP to launch his leadership bid, failing to gather enough support in the third round. He went on to back Liz Truss, citing his admiration of her “true Conservative principles”.

Suella Braverman

Suella Braverman has been the MP for Fareham since 2015. She served as Home Secretary from September to October 2022 (under Liz Truss), and October 2022 to November 2023 (under Rishi Sunak).

Ms Braverman has run for leader once, standing to replace Boris Johnson in 2022. She has recently declined she is intending to run for leader “anytime soon”, telling Sky News “there is not a leadership election at the moment”.

In October 2022, Ms Braverman resigned as Home Secretary after making an “honest mistake” in sharing an official document via her personal email, in breach of the ministerial code.

Controversially, she was reappointed to the role less than a week later after Mr Sunak became prime minister. Ms Braverman remained in the role for just over a year before her dismissal following an article she penned for The Times in which she criticised the Met Police’s handling of pro-Palestine protests in London.

Ms Braverman became a barrister in 2005, and contested her first parliamentary seat the same year, coming second in Leicester East. As an MP, Ms Braverman has been involved in a number of controversies, and is often accused of stoking ‘culture wars’ with her comments.

Politically, she is on the right of the party, drawing attention for her 2023 speech at the National Conservatism conference, where she rallied against immigration, trans rights and the ‘radical left’.