'People are fed up': Power shift coming if Tuesday's Shasta supervisors' results hold

A few months before Tuesday’s election, District 2 Supervisor Tim Garman predicted that change was coming to the Shasta County Board of Supervisors.

If the results hold, Garman’s forecast will have come true.

“People are fed up. People want to get back to some normal governance and they don’t want anymore of these sideshows,” Garman said Wednesday morning.

Over the past three-plus years, board of supervisors’ meetings have often been marred by rancor, public outbursts and political grandstanding, which at times has infamously brought national attention to the area.

Maybe the biggest surprise Tuesday was in District 4, where challenger Matt Plummer had a large lead over incumbent Patrick Jones with 100% of the precincts reporting. Plummer had 60.59% of the vote to Jones’ 39.41%.

Jones, District 1 Supervisor Kevin Crye and District 5 Supervisor Chris Kelstrom make up the board's far-right majority.

Crye on Wednesday was losing his battle to fend off a recall.

Read more: Race tightening: Supporters of Shasta Supervisor Crye recall not declaring victory

With 100% of precincts reporting, the recall leads with 53% of the vote, compared to 47% of "no" votes.

Elections officials had yet to count an estimated 30,000 ballots from around the county as of Wednesday afternoon. Of those, it is not known how many were cast by Redding voters who live in District 1. The district covers the downtown, portions of the north and south side of the city and portions of the Enterprise area.

Newcomer could win 4-way race outright: 'I did not see that happening'

Also headed for a big victory is Allen Long in District 2. The retired Redding Police lieutenant had collected 55.21% of the vote with 100% of the precincts reporting. The three other people in the race each have less than 20% of the vote, with Laura Hobbs leading the way with 16.86%.

If the results hold, Long will have won outright the seat that Garman will soon vacate. Garman now lives outside the district after district boundaries were redrawn following the 2020 census. Rather than move, he decided not to seek reelection.

“I endorsed Allen Long. I am very happy that he won outright,” Garman said. “I did not see that happening. I did think he would make a runoff, but with four people running, to win outright, hats off to Allen Long. He worked very hard.”

For his part, Long said he was feeling upbeat, but there are still votes to be counted.

“I am cautiously optimistic because I know with that many ballots outstanding, the numbers can change,” Long said. “I sure appreciate the trust and the lead and the votes so far.”

Jones on District 4 race: 'I just needed to engage my base more'

At a Wednesday afternoon media briefing, county Assistant Registrar of Voters Joanna Francescut said there are an estimated 30,165 ballots left in the county to be counted. Of those, 29,641 are vote-by-mail ballots. She did not have a breakdown by district.

The next count update is scheduled at 4:30 p.m. Friday, Francescut said.

Read more: KQMS radio says Shasta County officials behind election ad pulled from the air

Plummer was guarded in his comments Wednesday morning before the afternoon media briefing.

“I don’t know how many votes are left to be counted, so I don’t want to get ahead of things on that front. But it’s good to see the level of support that has come so far,” Plummer said.

Jones said he is not shocked by the results, given the low turnout so far and Plummer’s support from Bethel Church voters who live in the district. Plummer attends the Redding megachurch.

“They have good voter turnout. I got beat in a couple of (precincts) that had a heavy Bethel support,” Jones said.

Jones also said he could have done a better job of campaigning to his supporters about the sense of urgency with Tuesday’s election. No matter what happened, the race was not going to a November runoff.

“I didn’t make it known that this race would be over March 5. I just needed to engage my base more,” he said.

What appears headed for a runoff is the District 3 race, where incumbent Rickert has 44% of the vote with 100% of the precincts reporting. Rickert needed 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff.

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Which candidate she'll face in November is yet to be determined. Corkey Harmon held a 26-vote lead over Win Carpenter on Wednesday.

Garman on board chaos over past 2 years: 'They hurt their own movement'

Both Garman and District 3 Supervisor Mary Rickert, who was on Tuesday’s ballot, have often been in the minority on many key issues over the past year, such as whether to terminate a contract with Dominion Voting Systems and hiring a new public health officer and county counsel.

Garman, who supports the recall of Crye, said Shasta County voters started getting frustrated after the June 2022 primary and continued after Crye and Kelstrom won their seats in November 2022 — which created the board's far-right majority.

"Once Crye and Kelstrom were seated on the board, the craziness continued and they hurt themselves. They hurt their own movement," Garman said.

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Jones, however, is optimistic that Crye will survive the recall and Carpenter will beat Rickert in a runoff for the District 3 seat in November. Jones said he will not support Harmon if he faces Rickert in the runoff.

"Other than District 2 and District 4, everything looks pretty good. We still have a solid chance to keep the board conservative," Jones said.

David Benda covers business, development and anything else that comes up for the USA TODAY Network in Redding. He also writes the weekly "Buzz on the Street" column. He’s part of a team of dedicated reporters that investigate wrongdoing, cover breaking news and tell other stories about your community. Reach him on X, formerly Twitter @DavidBenda_RS or by phone at 1-530-338-8323. To support and sustain this work, please subscribe today.

This article originally appeared on Redding Record Searchlight: Shasta County Board of Supervisors could have big changes coming soon