NJ Underdog Turning the Tide In Battle for Sen. Menendez’s Seat

On Sunday, after publication of this story, Tammy Murphy announced she was ending her Senate campaign, making Rep. Andy Kim the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic primary.

Just three months ago, the Democratic U.S. Senate primary in New Jersey might have already been slipping away from Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ).

When New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy announced her candidacy to replace disgraced Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) in November, a David-versus-Goliath narrative about the race quickly took hold in the state’s political circles and in media coverage.

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Murphy, the wealthy and well-connected wife of two-term New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D), personified the state’s powerful party establishment. The governor has a record of pouring millions into his own campaigns, she had relationships with the state’s influential party bosses, and most of New Jersey’s top Democrats quickly pledged their allegiance to Murphy.

Despite impressive initial fundraising and polling numbers, Kim barely stood a chance—or so the conventional wisdom held.

With the June primary election drawing closer, Kim is now telling a different story. He is fighting Murphy on her turf—insider-dominated county party conventions—and coming away with endorsements. He has converted Murphy supporters into Kim supporters, like Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop.

This week, Fulop drew considerable attention for announcing he was switching from Murphy to Kim—and then dialing up his criticism of the First Lady’s campaign.

“I think win or lose, Tammy Murphy has done more for democracy in New Jersey than anybody,” Fulop told The Daily Beast, “because she’s brought to light the fact that we have a system that is tremendously flawed.”

The specific system in question is at the core of Kim’s campaign: the all-powerful “county line.” Under the long-running New Jersey electoral practice, 19 of the state’s 21 counties give preferential ballot placement in primaries to the candidates that are either endorsed at county-level conventions or by county chairs.

Predictably, Murphy has secured key endorsements from chairs in the most populous counties—Union, Bergen, Middlesex, Hudson, and Camden—meaning that Kim will have a weaker placement on the ballot in those vote-rich places. Kim, meanwhile, has largely won in smaller counties where delegates voted anonymously to endorse a candidate.

The potential disadvantage is very real: candidates running on the line have a staggering 38-point advantage, according to a 2023 study from Rutgers University.

Rather than accepting that disadvantage, Kim is pursuing an alternative route. He filed a lawsuit in February aimed at eliminating the line, which could make or break his campaign.

More broadly, though, this system—and Murphy’s eagerness to take advantage of it—have given Kim’s campaign a powerful and defining idea around which to organize: resisting an entrenched political structure that has long enabled insiders like Menendez to amass clout.

“I think what we have been able to get done in terms of shaking things up in Jersey politics is remarkable,” Kim told The Daily Beast in an interview. “And it’s a testament to the energy of the people who are just saying, ‘You know what, we don’t want to be told who to vote for. We want to make up our own choice.’”

The sentiment has driven grassroots energy behind Kim, but it’s also opened him to arguments from Murphy that he is focused on process over policy.

Murphy’s campaign spokesperson Alex Altman hit back at Kim’s system-oriented approach, arguing that the congressman has lost sight of the issues like “reproductive rights, affordability, gun violence, climate action, and defending our democracy” in his crusade against the county line. (Unlike Murphy, however, Kim has been voting in Congress for over five years and has touted his record on those issues.)

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“Unfortunately, Congressman Kim’s focus has been on personal attacks and process—and that does not help the real New Jerseyans struggling to make ends meet or protect their reproductive rights from being stripped away,” Altman said in a statement. “Tammy is the only candidate that has the strength and resolve to stand up to Trump and right-wing extremists and will fight everyday for New Jersey’s families and their values."

(Murphy’s campaign declined an interview request. Altman and Murphy responded to written questions from The Daily Beasts via email.)

As Senate Democrats defend their paper-thin majority this cycle in states like Montana, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, New Jersey’s safely blue Senate seat is not a concern.

In terms of policy, there is not much daylight between Kim and Murphy—both candidates are running as mainstream liberals and would likely provide a reliable vote to Democratic leadership, though Murphy was previously a Republican and Kim had an early record that reflected his swing district.

Against the backdrop of Menendez’s federal bribery charges, the race has captured national attention as a test of power in the perhaps the last state where party bosses still rule—as well as a glimpse at the energy behind grassroots activists. Fighting the process could have tremendous upside for Kim’s campaign, but he’s also making the case that the line empowers go-along-to-get-along politicians and gets in the way of innovative policy.

“It might be enough is enough time,” Hillside Mayor Dahlia Ventreese, a Kim supporter, told The Daily Beast. “And I think that people want more exciting candidates. And the line as it exists today, it makes it kind of boring.”

The fight against the line is currently playing out in a Trenton federal courthouse, where in a Monday hearing, Judge Zahid Quraishi expressed skepticism toward the county line process.

Democratic sources tapped into the New Jersey political world told The Daily Beast that Kim’s case stands a real shot at undoing what was—until recently—an intrinsic quirk of the state’s electoral system.

In the lawsuit targeting 19 county clerks, Kim and two congressional candidates argue that the state’s county line ballot design unconstitutionally benefits the candidates handpicked by county party leaders. The lawsuit’s detractors contend that if Kim’s effort succeeds, it could force a chaotic, last-minute ballot redesign just weeks before the June 4 Democratic primary.

Even Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-NJ)—who has not endorsed either candidate in the primary—said she’s comfortable with removing the line from New Jersey elections, but is worried about the timeline.

“I’m OK with that. My concern is when do you say it? What are you going to tell us to do? And when are you going to tell us to do it?” she told The Daily Beast.

The suit has attracted some powerful supporters. Last week, New Jersey Attorney General Matt Platkin (D)—who was appointed by Gov. Murphy—called the county line “unconstitutional” and said the state would not defend the system in court.

The governor’s office issued a scathing response to Platkin’s decision, claiming the AG had a “general obligation” to defend the statute regardless of his personal views.

“I hope it doesn’t cause chaos, right?” Murphy backer Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ) told The Daily Beast. “So I would stick with the same method that we had this year. We want to change it, send it to the legislature. That’s their job.”

In a statement this week, the four corners of New Jersey legislative leadership committed to initiating a public ballot design process.

For her part, Tammy Murphy did not respond directly to a question from The Daily Beast. about whether she believes the line is constitutional, instead reiterating that she will “follow whatever guidelines on process that the courts provide.”

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Even without electoral reform, Kim is well positioned to battle Murphy. A January Fairleigh-Dickinson University poll showed Kim with a commanding 12-point lead, and Kim has won nine county conventions.

“If the line still exists, it’s a very competitive race that could go either way,” a New Jersey operative told The Daily Beast. “And I think if the line doesn't exist, Kim is the clear favorite.”

In the meantime, Kim must navigate an awkward dynamic where that state’s political establishment is rooting against him. According to Murphy’s campaign, she has over 100 endorsements from elected officials, dozens from New Jersey labor unions, and national support from groups like EMILY’s List and the National Women’s Political Caucus.

Besides Watson Coleman and the current senator’s son, Rep. Robert Menendez, Jr. (D-NJ), every New Jersey House Democrat has endorsed Murphy. In fact, Kim has collected more support from neighboring Pennsylvania lawmakers than from colleagues in his home state.

“Tammy has been somebody that cares about some of the hardest issues,” said Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ)—who is widely expected to run to succeed Murphy’s husband as New Jersey governor in 2025.

“I work on child care, maternal health, Headstart programs,” she continued. “She’s been to my district numerous times as an advocate for those and to bring attention to the needs of the district.”

Asked about his dynamic with the rest of the New Jersey delegation, Kim hinted some relationships have been strained.

“It makes things a little…” he said, before trailing off. “What I’ll say is it hasn’t impacted my interactions with them. But if they feel awkward or uncomfortable, that’s on them.”

Kim has fierce support at the grassroots and local levels. For example, he touts endorsements from the national progressive advocacy group Move On as well as both the national and state chapter of College Democrats.

Kim and Murphy aside, there’s another player looming who could wreak havoc on the race: the person who currently holds the seat. Menendez has opted out of the Democratic party, revealing Thursday that he’s considering running as an “Independent Democrat” if he’s exonerated on federal bribery charges.

Kim said an independent Menendez run could play spoiler in the November general election, as the incumbent could siphon votes from the Democratic nominee.

But Kim is undeterred. “I think that having Menendez considering running as an independent only strengthens my case,” Kim said, calling himself the “best Democrat” for the challenge.

Murphy’s campaign would beg to differ that Kim is best suited to represent the state. But if the polls are any indication, her campaign seems to have struggled to make that case.

Her campaign manager, Max Glass, left last month after a rocky start to the campaign. She’s since hired longtime Democratic operative Maggie Moran to helm the campaign. Murphy did not respond directly when asked if there will be any changes to campaign strategy under Moran.

Instead, Murphy gushed about her new manager in a statement, saying she “brings a wealth of experience in helping elect Democrats up and down the ballot.”

In recent weeks, the campaign has tried to emphasize policy distinctions between the two frontrunners. Last month, Murphy announced support for a “Medicare for All” system and hit Kim for not signing on. Kim insists he supports universal health care, but while he’s open to a Medicare for All proposal, he said it’s not the only policy he could support.

Murphy has also played up her support for a bill forcing a sale of TikTok to a U.S.-based entity. Kim opposed the bill, though missed the vote last week—an absence Murphy has emphasized.

There’s also Murphy’s fundraising edge. According to January campaign filings, Murphy has outraised Kim, even though she launched her campaign six weeks after he did.

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That said, Kim has attracted significantly more small dollar donations through the Democratic online fundraising platform ActBlue. Murphy could draw on her wealth—her husband loaned his gubernatorial campaigns millions—but told the New Jersey Globe in November that she has “zero intention” of self-funding.

No matter the fundraising tallies, Kim’s lawsuit and messaging will guarantee that Murphy spends the remaining 10 weeks of the primary campaign navigating allegations that she is unjustly benefiting from a corrupt, outdated system.

“She has been in a really difficult spot. Because she’s become sort of the face of this status quo that people don’t like,” the New Jersey operative said. “I don’t know if that’s really totally deserved. But that’s just how it’s developed.”

With Menendez’s federal bribery charges, Kim’s aggressive campaign strategy and Murphy’s clear connections, Mayor Ventreese said that both a groundswell of support for Kim, and a structural change in New Jersey politics are on the way.

“I think that people felt that the line was abused and has been getting abused. But this was glaring,” she said of Murphy’s candidacy. “I think it was too much.”

Read more at The Daily Beast.

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