Mike Johnson's days as House Speaker may be numbered, but his ouster would cause chaos

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the House of Representatives rushes to pass a massive spending bill shortly before the government would shut down. This frustrates a sizable portion of the Republican caucus. Angry at leadership, a member then files a motion that declares the speakership to be vacant.

This was the story that played out last fall, and it looks like it is happening again.

Following the vote on March 22 on a $1.2 trillion spending package, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Georgia, filed a motion to vacate. This was the same sort of motion that was filed by Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Florida, last fall.

Last time, the ensuing vote on the motion led to the historic removal of then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Oct. 3, followed by weeks of Republicans struggling to unite around a new leader. Finally, they managed to coalesce around Mike Johnson.

However, it may play out differently this time. Greene qualified her motion, stating that, “it’s more of a warning than a pink slip.” She also said that she did not want, “...to inflict pain on our caucus and throw the House in chaos,” but that it was time to, “go through the process, take our time and find a new speaker of the House that will stand with Republicans and our Republican majority, instead of standing with the Democrats." In other words, while a vote on this may not be imminent, it does appear that Greene may be serious about the motion.

But as of Friday, two other Republicans, Rep. Paul Gosar of Arizona and Thomas Massie of Kentucky have said they would support a motion to vacate.

More: Yep, Marjorie Taylor Greene is right about D.C., but she's wrong to target Mike Johnson

Slim Republican majority could throw House into chaos

If there is a vote on a motion to vacate, what would happen? Such a vote requires a simple majority, so if all Republicans sans Greene support Johnson, he will keep his position.

But it would not take many defections to sink his speakership. With Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colorado, recently leaving Congress, the Republican majority in the House shrank even further, which means just three defections would be enough to remove Johnson.

Also, there are even more frustrated Republicans right now than there were in October. Last fall, 90 Republicans opposed the continuing resolution that led to the motion to vacate; this last spending bill saw 112 Republicans vote against it.

Speaker Johnson will need Democrats to save his job

If Johnson is removed, it is far from clear who would be next to wield the gavel. Last fall, the caucus cycled through Reps. Steve Scalise, Jim Jordan, and Tom Emmer before settling on Johnson. The House Freedom Caucus appeared to play a crucial role in those contests, largely failing to back either Scalise or Emmer. Any candidate to emerge would likely need their support.

But there are several reasons to think that none of this will come to pass. Unlike last fall, there are several Democrats who say they would vote to keep Johnson in power. For example, Rep. Jared Moskowitz,, D-Florida, stated on social media that he would not let Greene “take over the people’s House.” Rep. Annie Kuster, D-New Hampshire, voiced a similar sentiment, saying, “If [Johnson] is a fair actor with us, we've got no reason to get rid of him.”

However, if a different speaker is ultimately elected, that new leader will face the same problems as both McCarthy and Johnson: narrow margins, and a fractious caucus. Many members may believe that the challenges in Congress go beyond leadership, so perhaps the best solution would be to wait until after the fall elections and then see where things stand. The legislative calendar currently shows the House will only be in session around 50 times for the rest of the year. It is easy to imagine that many in D.C. are already counting the days.

Michael E. Bednarczuk, Ph.D., is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science and Public Management at Austin Peay State University.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Speaker Mike Johnson faces ouster and chaos will consume House again