Macron Runs Into Trouble Around the World Before Tricky EU Vote

(Bloomberg) -- Emmanuel Macron started the week in his comfort zone, boasting to the international business elite at the Château de Versailles about how he has transformed France into a magnet for their investment.

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He ends it engulfed in swirling, unrelated crises, from riots in New Caledonia to a prison break and shooting nearer home, with unemployment data showing the grim economic challenges he faces.

Read More: Why French Territory of New Caledonia Is in Chaos: QuickTake

Fighting fires on multiple fronts is a major handicap for the French leader as he struggles to find a reset to improve his prospects in European Parliament elections in three weeks. The vote was already set to reflect a losing battle to contain the rise of his erstwhile far-right nemesis, Marine Le Pen.

As well as framing the poll as a precursor to 2027, when France will pick a new president, she has defied Macron to call legislative elections if his party is significantly defeated.

With less than one month to go, surveys show the National Rally, led by Le Pen’s protégé, Jordan Bardella, will win the EU parliament vote with around double the score of Macron’s Renaissance group.

Macron’s government was forced to impose a state of emergency in New Caledonia, a French archipelago in the Pacific Ocean, on Wednesday after deadly pro-independence protests. That came the day after two prison guards were killed and three injured by heavily armed attackers freeing a prisoner in transit in northern France. Overnight into Friday, police shot dead a man trying to set fire to a synagogue in Rouen.

“We now know that public order is a precious asset that is no longer assured, and that French society can slide into widespread and uncontrollable violence,” Bardella said at a news conference on Thursday.

A poll of 1,005 adults by Odoxa-Backbone for Le Figaro on May 15 and 16 showed security jumping three places since September to third in a ranking of the most important concerns for French voters. While few consider other parties would do much better, 70% said they are not confident in Macron and his team to tackle insecurity.

Still, concerns about inflation and spending power continue to trump those about law and order. Economic issues would usually be a strong suit for Macron, but Le Pen has also effectively seized on the surge in living costs over the last year to say the government’s pro-business reforms aren’t paying dividends for workers.

Sluggish growth has further played into her hands as it undermines Macron’s plans both to repair public finances and keep bringing down unemployment. The situation forced his government to announce further spending cuts earlier this year, with the threat of credit-rating downgrades on the horizon.

Macron had planned to unveil more labor-market reforms this week to try get back on track. The security situation has delayed the announcements.

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