KY primaries are here. Which statehouse races to watch, how much campaigns are raising

Less than two weeks after this year’s legislative session adjourned, the eyes of Kentucky’s political class have shifted to this year’s primary races.

So have their wallets.

Candidates on both sides of the aisle have raised more than $6.9 million total in the lead up to the May 21 .

Between heated internecine battles over who the “real Republican” is, a surprising turn for a teachers union and Democratic showdowns in Louisville, much of the political drama in Kentucky has shifted to the primary elections.

So how will those stories play out?

Money is one piece of the puzzle, but as 2022’s trio of upsets over established Northern Kentucky House committee chairs showed, it’s not everything.

Here are some races to watch this May, along with their latest fundraising reports from the Kentucky Registry of Election Finance. And there’s a handful of notable fundraisers who don’t even have primaries.

Races to watch

Senate District 7 GOP primary: Sen. Adrienne Southworth, R-Lawrenceburg, has two well-funded and well-known Republicans, both former Navy SEALs, running against her in the Republican primary to hold her seat.

Ed Gallrein’s family runs a popular destination farm in Shelby County, the most populous county in the district. He has raised more than $169,000 in his effort, with much of it coming from state GOP stalwarts like former Republican Party of Kentucky chair Mac Brown, longtime donor Wayne Hunt and current Secretary of State Michael Adams.

Former Shelby County GOP senator Paul Hornback, also a farmer, has given Gallrein $2,000.

Aaron Reed has a combination sometimes difficult to come across in Kentucky Republican politics: money and “Liberty” Republican grassroots zeal. Though Reed had yet to file his fundraising report as of Wednesday morning, he’s been raising money for years — he became a candidate for Senate District 20 in 2021 before GOP mapmakers drew him out.

Candidates aligning under the loosely-organized banner of “Liberty” Republicanism are generally further right than the mainstream of the party on issues like gun control and the role of government.

Reed has built up a following on social media, prepping to run for something for multiple years. Recently, he scored the endorsement of Americans for Prosperity, the Koch Brothers-founded libertarian conservative group.

Despite the stiff competition, Southworth proved herself an able campaigner in 2020 when she navigated a crowded GOP primary and defeated sitting representative Joe Graviss in the general election when the district contained more Democratic-friendly counties.

On the Senate floor, she’s developed a reputation for reading every bill and sometimes voting against her own caucus — the latter of which has led to some conflict between her and Senate Republican leadership.

Earlier in her tenure, she drew harsh criticism from Adams for engaging in conspiracy theories about elections.

Since that election, the district’s map was redrawn almost completely, losing all of its counties except her home of Anderson and replacing it with Shelby, Henry and part of Jefferson County.

Southworth has cleared $48,000 in fundraising, netting contributions from Sen. Phillip Wheeler, R-Pikeville, and former lieutenant governor Jenean Hampton, her former boss under the administration of ex-GOP governor Matt Bevin.

Louisville Democratic showdowns: Though most of Kentucky’s state legislature is on the political right, there are plenty of active Democratic primaries in the state.

Leading them all in terms of funds raised is the battle between former representative Mary Lou Marzian and Rick Adams. Marzian has brought in about $77,000 while Adams has raised $59,000.

Marzian was a member of the House Democratic caucus for 28 years — most of it when Democrats served in the majority — before stepping aside when her district lines were redrawn in 2022. But with Rep. Josie Raymond, D-Louisville, leaving to run for Louisville Metro Council, Marzian is attempting to make a comeback.

Adams is a 32-year-old attorney who serves as deputy general counsel to the Kentucky Democratic Party.

Another Louisville race that’s drawn attention is Senate Democratic Floor Leader Gerald Neal’s tilt against former state representative Attica Scott. A 25-year veteran of the Senate, Neal is the longest serving member in Frankfort.

Scott says it’s time for a change. And she’s no stranger to Frankfort, either, having served in the House before falling short in a congressional run to Third Congressional District Rep. Morgan McGarvey, D-KY, in 2022.

Neal has raised $75,000 during the primary cycle and Scott has brought in just over $24,000.

“Liberty” GOP battles across the state: It’s not just Northern Kentucky. Stark conflicts between Republicans in the more traditional conservative mold and those running to their right are breaking out across the state.

The first punch has already been thrown in a GOP primary race between Rep. Michael Meredith, R-Oakland, and Bowling Green consultant Kelcey Rock.

Make Liberty Win, a national conservative group that spent over $100,000 last primary cycle on behalf of candidates in Kentucky’s “Liberty” wing sent out a mailer indicating that voting for Meredith would be voting “for Socialism.”

Meredith is raising money to rebuff the attacks.

He’s raised close to $134,000 for the race, a little less than half coming from previous campaign accounts and more than $40,000 from political action committees representing business and special interest groups in the state. The veteran legislator has more than $100,000 on hand.

Kentucky Right to Life is also taking part in the race, endorsing Rock over Meredith. The organization said Meredith did not respond to its questionnaire, though he has a “100% pro-life” voting record.

Due west of Bowling Green, the state’s leading anti-abortion organization is making another pick over longtime incumbent Sen. Jason Howell, R-Murray, for similar reasons.

The group is endorsing Lynn Bechler, a former state representative who was drawn out of his district in 2022.

Howell has been one of the strongest fundraisers this cycle, bringing in more than ten times as much as his competitor – $122,000 to Bechler’s $12,000.

Interesting House GOP races in Central and Northern Kentucky are falling along similar battle lines.

In the race to replace Rep. Steve Rawlings, R-Burlington, former representative Ed Massey has raised and spent a tremendous amount of money. His campaign has brought in $90,000 but has spent more than $73,000 so far.

His opponent TJ Roberts, a former Republican political operative running to his right, has topped $53,000 raised and has spent $28,000 of it.

Sparks have been flying in the race, already, as Massey has criticized Roberts past use of antisemitic lingo and social media posts. Roberts, on the other hand, has hit Massey for his previous political donations to Democrats and support from teachers’ groups.

The Boone County Republican Party has issued a censure of Massey for his alleged “support for left-wing politics,” and the party is also controversially prepping to spend money on primary candidates, a move being appealed to the state party.

Two Central Kentucky showdowns to watch out for: Rep. Killian Timoney, R-Nicholasville, versus Thomas Jefferson; and Rep. Bill Wesley, R-Ravenna, versus Darrell Billings.

Jefferson, who shares a name with an American Founding Father, has the endorsement of the Jessamine County Republican Party; the district is split between Jessamine and Fayette counties.

Timoney, meanwhile, has drawn fire from some conservatives for being one of the most socially moderate GOP House members and voting against Senate Bill 150 in 2023, which LGBTQ rights advocates said was one of the most “anti-trans,” bills in the nation.

Further, when Timoney was carrying a bill to ban so-called “gray machines” — the slot-like games that popped up in convenience stores around the state — from Kentucky, a mysterious group ran anti-trans television ads against him highly critical of his vote against a ban on transgender girls from girls school sports.

Jefferson has raised close to $14,000 during this cycle while Timoney has yet to file his fundraising report.

To the Southeast of Lexington, Billings has raised $70,000 in his race against Wesley, buoyed by support from U.S. Congressmen Andy Barr and James Comer as well as Commissioner of Agriculture Jonathan Shell and Treasurer Mark Metcalf.

Wesley has brought in $19,000, much of it from current and former colleagues in the House.

Teachers union backs Republicans: Years ago, it would have shocked the political world for teachers’ unions to be all-in on certain Republican candidates. But that’s the case with Better Schools Kentucky, a political action committee funded by the largest local teachers union in the state, the Jefferson County Teachers Association.

As Better Schools Kentucky president Cassie Lyles told Louisville Public Radio, the group typically supports Democrats but has come to terms with the fact that Republicans hold 80% majorities in both chambers.

“We’ve got to find a way to build relationships in our current reality,” Lyles said. “All of the Republicans (supported) in these primaries are ones that we think will be or have been supportive of public schools in the past.”

The group has spent $90,000 on advertising for Massey and $75,000 for Timoney.

It’s also playing offense, backing challengers Chris Pavese in Northern Kentucky against Rep. Marianne Proctor, R-Union; Andy Stone of Bardstown against Rep. Candi Massaroni, R-Bardstown; and Diane Brown against Rep. Steve Doan, R-Erlanger; and Debbie Peden in a crowded primary race to replace outgoing Rep. Kevin Bratcher, R-Louisville.

Who else has raised a lot of money?

Senate President Robert Stivers, R-Manchester, has no competition for his primary or general race.

Yet, he has brought in a haul of more than $400,000 as of earlier this year, leading all fundraisers.

The same goes for fellow Eastern Kentucky Republican Phillip Wheeler, R-Pikeville, who’s raised $223,000 this cycle. According to his most recent report, Wheeler has spent a large chunk of it donating to other Republican candidates.

Senate Appropriations & Revenue Chair Chris McDaniel, R-Ryland Heights, and Senate President Pro Tempore David Givens, R-Greensburg, have raised around $196,000 and $194,000 each. Both have Democratic challengers but no primaries.

In the House, members of GOP leadership are also bringing in serious cash.

House GOP Floor Leader Steven Rudy, R-Paducah, has raised close to $148,000. House Speaker Pro Tempore David Meade, R-Stanford, posted around $96,000. House Speaker David Osborne, R-Prospect, brought in around $87,000.