Inside the fight for top Trump national security roles

A furious sweepstakes for senior national security posts in a new Donald Trump administration is well underway, with everyone from MAGA acolytes to mainstream Republicans vying to serve the former president in a second term.

The jockeying at this early stage is mainly for the roles of national security adviser and secretary of State, four people familiar with Donald Trump’s thinking and conversations told POLITICO. It’s early days and who’s up now could be down later, especially if Trump perceives individuals fighting too hard for jobs or drawing the spotlight.

Among the names are Richard Grenell, a former ambassador to Germany whom Trump has called his “envoy” to the world and is known for fiercely fighting with the media; Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), a former ambassador to Japan who is comfortable in Trump world and traditional Republican circles; Elbridge Colby, the former senior Pentagon official pushing American officials to invest more in countering China; and Robert O’Brien, Trump’s fourth national security adviser and a self-described Reagan Republican.

Trump could name all, some, or none to top positions as he’s known to often change his mind about people. Who’s a front-runner today could be off the shortlist tomorrow. But a typically murky picture so many months from the election has grown clearer in recent weeks, as planning for the former president’s possible return to power moves at a fast clip and Trump mulls who would carry out his agenda.

If personnel is policy, then the most bandied-about names offer a glimpse into what global issues Trump will prioritize should he settle back into the Oval Office.

The prospective choices would all make China the centerpiece of a Trump foreign policy, just like it was in the first term, and consider ways to bend allies’ actions to America’s will. Anyone serving in Trump’s Cabinet would have to turn those and other “America First” ideas into a coherent doctrine.

Steven Cheung, a spokesperson for the Trump campaign, said “there has been no discussion of who will serve in a second Trump administration. President Trump will choose the best people for his Cabinet to undo all the damage Crooked Joe Biden has done to our country.”

But the competition for national security adviser, one of the most influential roles in all of government, is already down to two men, the four people said: Grenell and Colby.

Grenell, the former ambassador to Germany and acting national intelligence director during Trump’s first term, is already traversing the world as Trump’s envoy. He and Trump maintain a close relationship and the former president rates Grenell highly for his ceaseless pushback on the media and government bureaucracy, over which he would have immense influence atop the national security chain.

His pugnacious style appeals to Trump and would be trusted to carry out the president’s wishes and not abide by what career public servants recommend.

“Trump absolutely loves that about him,” said one of the people, like others granted anonymity to discuss private considerations by Trump, members of his campaign and the former president’s allies.

The other front-runner, Colby, made a name for himself after leaving the Trump administration as a senior Pentagon official. For years, he has advocated for the United States to have a near-total focus on China’s challenge to the world order and a great military buildup, minimizing — but not ignoring — American involvement in other regional crises. That thinking has taken hold in certain elements of Trump world and the MAGA movement, with Colby seeing many of his talking points blasted on social media by Republican senators like Missouri’s Josh Hawley or Ohio’s J.D. Vance.

“Military forces exist in space and time and obey the laws of physics. If we tie down or expend forces in Europe, they will be unavailable for the first island chain, inviting a Chinese assault. That’s just the reality,” he posted to X on Wednesday.

With either man in the West Wing, a Trump administration would almost certainly elevate confronting China to the single highest priority on the national security agenda — and likely focus less on U.S. commitments to Europe, particularly Ukraine’s defense against Russia.

Grenell and Colby didn’t respond to repeated requests for comment.

The race to be America’s top diplomat is much more open, the same four people and another person said.

Grenell remains a leading candidate for that post. But his years of fighting with Democrats has many in Trump’s orbit fearful that a Senate confirmation bid would fail. Grenell’s backers note he was confirmed as the U.S. envoy to Germany and could get the green light if Republicans control the Senate.

A slew of lawmakers are also in the mix, but none more prominently than Hagerty, the Tennessee Republican and former ambassador to Japan.

Hagerty hired multiple former Trump administration officials when he joined the Senate in 2021 and has maintained good relationships with key players in Trump world ever since. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee member is comfortable with mainstream Republican and MAGA foreign policy talking points, showing he can appeal to key factions of the party.

“He fits Trump’s profile and Trump has always had a good rapport with him going back to 2016,” a second of the four people said.

Hagerty’s deep Rolodex of Japanese and other regional officials are viewed as an asset as tough-on-China policies get developed and executed. In March, Hagerty told Japanese media outlets that Trump wasn’t an isolationist. “Trump has been clear that he wants to see our partner nations as strong as they possibly can be and as supportive as they possibly can be,” he said.

Three of the people also floated O’Brien, Trump’s last national security adviser, for the State post. He would bring more mainstream Republican foreign policy thinking to Foggy Bottom, potentially alleviating some GOP concerns that Trump would pursue an historically aberrant American internationalism and instead see his instincts tempered, though that rarely panned out during Trump’s first term.

O’Brien, whose name has also come up for Defense secretary, earned the former president’s trust during his 16 months in the White House. He oversaw a drawdown of U.S. troops from Afghanistan and the swift signings of the Abraham Accords that normalized relations between Israel and some Arab states. A potential problem for him is that he has occasionally praised members of Biden’s administration and the current president’s handling of foreign policy, namely coalescing the West to Ukraine’s side.

“Once Putin went into Ukraine the Biden administration has done a good job of rallying the allies to support Ukraine. And certainly, the expansion of NATO has been a big part of that,” he told an audience at the Council on Foreign Relations in 2022. O’Brien then urged Biden to convince Europeans to spend more for their defense and send more weapons to the Ukrainians so that Kyiv wasn’t mainly reliant on Washington.

O’Brien and a spokesperson for Hagerty declined to comment.

All five people cautioned, again and again, that there’s a long way to go before the election and that Trump will waffle back and forth before settling on his Cabinet selections — should voters give him the chance. Those vying for spots have to do a delicate dance, expressing interest in a role without seeming to want it too much and keeping their names out of the press.

Trump often strikes candidates’ names from shortlists after seeing them pop up in the news.

Meridith McGraw contributed to this report.