GOP consultant: The math looks bleak for Trump - until you factor in Joe Biden | Opinion

Republicans should be bracing for historic losses.

Electorally, our nominee for president is a weak candidate. Voters already rejected Trump and his endorsed candidates in 2018, 2020 and 2022 and history is not on our side. It’s difficult to beat an incumbent and only one time has a president served two non-consecutive terms. The salacious details of Trump’s hush money trial, along with the $454 million civil fraud judgment, are a constant reminder of why suburban women in swing states may never vote for him — making the electoral math very difficult.

Republicans in Washington are the poster child for dysfunction. Instead of passing meaningful legislation to help Americans or fix the border crisis, Republicans seem more interested in scoring political points. Despite holding a slim majority in the House, fringe Republican members with no moral base are ready to plunge the government into chaos in order to be on TV and boost their fundraising.

Last week, a Republican governor once considered to be on the shortlist for vice president, recounted shooting her 14-month-old wirehaired pointer. While the intention of the story may have been to show her willingness to make tough decisions, instead it made her a punchline for late-night comics.

By all measures, it should be a lopsided election — unless you run against Joe Biden.

Right now, the world feels out of control and filled with chaos. Biden seems more of a spectator to history than the leader of the free world. Between gaffs and the shuffling walk, he looks old, out of touch, somewhat aloof, and completely disconnected from the realities of America today.

Rising prices caused by inflation are taking their toll as Americans have lost faith in the economy. According to Gallup, 76% of Americans say the current economic conditions are “only fair” or “poor.”

Reports of crimes committed by migrants are a reminder that Biden systematically dismantled immigration policies and created one of the worst border crises in American history.

Then there are the campus protests. It took Biden three days to break his silence on the antisemitic lawlessness on college campuses. I suspect this is because Biden has a Michigan problem and pro-Palestinian advocates like Rep. Rashida Tlaib) have made it clear he is at risk of losing this critical battleground state. Meanwhile, Americans cringe at the lawlessness and the weakness of Joe Biden on the world stage, but this is what happens when you are more concerned with electoral math than actual leadership.

It’s not that Donald Trump is widely popular. It’s that Joe Biden is a disaster and is talking about the wrong things.

While Trump is talking about lowering energy costs, Biden talks about electric vehicles.

While Trump is talking about making Americans safer against crime and restoring law and order, Biden talks about gun violence.

While Trump is talking about bringing new manufacturing jobs to America, Biden is busy buying votes by forgiving upwards of $160 billion in student loan debt.

The truth is both Biden and Trump are disliked. In this race to the bottom, it will be difficult to attract new voters. The Biden campaign will attempt to use abortion and Trump’s legal woes to motivate the base and depress swing voters who might otherwise vote Republican. Trump will continue to use the lawsuits as a rallying cry against an overreaching government and focus on Biden as a weak candidate.

The reality is Donald Trump only won in 2016 because he ran against Hillary Clinton — a weak candidate that voters did not trust because she ignored the issues important to Americans. Right now, history appears to be repeating itself.

Matt Wylie is a Republican political strategist and analyst who lives on Hilton Head Island. He has worked on federal, state and local campaigns.