Is Florida in play for Biden? 3 takeaways for 2024 election from court's abortion rulings

WASHINGTON ― Florida is the new ground zero in the nation's battle over abortion access following a pair of decisions by the Florida Supreme Court that have major ramifications for the 2024 election.

The state's Supreme Court on Monday upheld Florida's strict abortion laws − allowing a ban on abortion after six weeks of pregnancy to go in effect in May − but in a separate decision ruled that a constitutional amendment to guarantee the right to an abortion can go before voters on the November ballot.

It marked an initial win for abortion opponents but opened the door for abortion rights advocates and Democrats to eye their biggest election victory yet since the 2022 Supreme Court decision overturning Roe. v. Wade.

Here are three key takeaways for the 2024 election from the Florida Supreme Court's abortion decisions:

Biden campaign says Florida now 'winnable'

With abortion on the November ballot in Florida, the Biden campaign immediately made the case that Florida − a state that's become increasingly elusive for Democrats − is in play for Biden in the 2024 election against presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Florida last voted Democratic in a presidential election in 2012, when Barack Obama edged Republican Mitt Romney by less than 1 percentage point. It's shifted red in the two elections since. Trump, the former president, carried Florida over Hillary Clinton 48.6%-47.4% in 2016, and he expanded the margin of victory to 3.3 percentage points over Biden in 2020.

"Our agenda, our coalition, and the unique dynamics this election presents make it clear: President Biden is in a stronger position to win Florida this cycle than he was in 2020," Biden campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodriguez wrote in a campaign memo Monday. "Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden."

The Biden campaign has worked to make restoring abortion rights a defining issue in the 2024 campaign. The abortion issue is widely credited with energizing Democrats in the 2022 midterms to help the party exceed expectations. And it has also been a winner for Democrats in several state referendums since Roe's collapse.

Biden has sought to remind voters that Trump's three Supreme Court appointments stacked the court with enough conservatives to produce the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision. The court ruling overturned Roe's 50-year precedent that established a constitutional right to an abortion.

"Donald Trump doesn't trust women. I do," Biden says in a campaign ad released Tuesday, warning that the former president wants to enact a nationwide abortion ban if elected again.

Rodriguez also pointed to other factors besides abortion for the campaign's optimism about Florida, which she called "ground zero for Trump’s MAGA blueprint." They include the state's lax gun laws and efforts by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis to ban books and restrict the education of Black history taught in schools.

Trump campaign walks fine line after Florida abortion rulings

Although Trump has previously touted his role in overturning Roe v. Wade, he notably did not claim victory after the Florida Supreme Court's decision to uphold a 15-week ban on abortion and allow the six-week ban to take effect in 30 days.

His response underscored the fine line the Trump campaign is trying to walk on an issue that favors Biden and Democrats.

"President Trump supports preserving life but has also made clear that he supports states' rights because he supports the voters' right to make decisions for themselves," Trump campaign spokesman Brian Hughes said.

A poll from the University of North Florida last November found overwhelming support, 62%-29%, in the state for Florida's proposed ballot initiative, which would effectively overturn the six-week abortion ban.

Florida and North Carolina are the only states the Biden campaign is playing offense in that Trump won in the 2020 election. Instead, the battleground field is made up mostly of states Biden carried in 2020 and is now defending: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

A win for Biden in Florida would no doubt severely hamper Trump's ability to win the 2024 election, but the Trump campaign expressed confidence it won't happen.

“Florida is Trump Country!" Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said in a statement.

More abortion referendums to come?

With the conservative-leaning Florida State Supreme Court upholding one of the strictest abortion bans in the nation, access to abortion has been cut off or greatly restricted across most of the South.

Every state in the southeast − each with either Republican governors or GOP-backed state legislatures − has passed laws outright banning abortion or enacting similar bans as Florida since the 2022 decision to end Roe v. Wade, with Virginia being the noticeable exception.

The Biden campaign seized on that point following the court's decisions. "This new, extreme abortion ban − one that Donald Trump personally paved the way for − will now amount to a ban for the entire Southeast," Rodriguez wrote in the Biden campaign memo.

New York and Maryland are the only other states where ballot initiatives on abortion have officially been approved for the November ballot − but more could be on the way.

That includes Arizona and Nevada, two critical battleground states in the presidential election.

Organizers of Arizona for Abortion Access have told USA TODAY their group is on track to collect the 384,000 signatures needed by the state's July deadline to get abortion on the ballot. Abortion advocates in Nevada announced Tuesday that have cleared the 102,000-signature threshold for a ballot initiative in their state.

Twenty-four states do not allow citizen-led ballot measures, meaning the power to decide abortion law in these states rests instead with the state legislature.

Arkansas is the only other state in the South where ballot measures on abortion have been proposed. Other states where voters are collecting signatures to put abortion on the ballot include: Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Florida Supreme Court abortion rulings: 3 takeaways for 2024 election