Florida Democrats will find a way to mess up their abortion advantage

It wouldn’t be a real Florida election without a wild card or two, so now the 2024 election features the surprising possibility of Democrats becoming overconfident.

This is a party in a 25-year slump. The party that holds no statewide office and, by the Nov. 5 election, will probably be outnumbered by 1 million voters in registration. The party that usually raises $1 for each $2 or $3 raised by Republicans.

But on April Fools’ Day, the Florida Supreme Court handed the Democrats not one but two political gifts.

By a 6-1 vote, the justices upheld a law forbidding abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy — which triggered a revised statute lowering the limit to six weeks. At the same time, justices voted 4-3 to allow a November referendum on a proposed constitutional amendment that would basically tell the state that abortion is a matter for women and their doctors to decide.

More on reproductive rights: Abortion rights, recreational pot to be on ballot

The high court also gave a green light to another proposed constitutional amendment, which would allow recreational use of marijuana. That might help Democrats more than the GOP at the polls. But abortion is the big referendum this year.

The situation uniquely illustrates what the U.S. Supreme Court said in 2022 when it struck down the 1973 Roe v. Wade precedent and allowed each state to make its own abortion laws. Legislators in many states did just that — and voters in several states told them, “Not so fast, fellas.”

And, yes, those were mostly men making those laws.

Voters in at least six states — including reliably red Kentucky and Kansas — have voted pro-choice in referendums on abortion. The anti-abortion forces have not won any ballot initiatives across the country.

It’s a political nightmare for Republicans, one that Democrats wasted no time exploiting.

More on reproductive rights: Trump: Abortion laws up to states. But where does he stand on Florida bans, amendment?

The morning after the Florida ruling, President Joe Biden’s campaign put out a video ad showing Donald Trump boasting of appointing the U.S. Supreme Court justices who junked the Roe decision — followed by Biden saying he’ll always support a woman’s right to choose. When DeSantis was running against him, Trump said the six-week ban was too “harsh,” but he and his party are stuck with the anti-abortion position that’s been a consistent loser in polls and ballot initiatives.

Best of all for the Democrats, voters will have been living with the six-week ban for half a year when they vote on the amendment that seeks to negate it. Cutting the limit from 15 to six weeks is literally doubling down, mathematically and politically.

“Reproductive rights initiatives have won on every ballot since Donald Trump paved the way for the fall of Roe v. Wade, because the majority of Americans agree that doctors should decide what’s best for their patients,” Nikki Fried, who chairs the Florida Democratic Party, said.

State GOP Chairman Evan Power claimed that the proposed amendment could permit abortion “even to (the) point of birth.” He said his party “will fight to inform voters on the dangers of this amendment.”

That argument has gone nowhere in other states. Biden and his party would certainly love to see the Republicans try it here.

After such a long losing streak, it’s understandable that Democrats see deliverance in the abortion ruling. But they shouldn’t get too giddy.

Constitutional amendments mostly backed by Democrats may be popular, but they don’t swing elections in Florida.

As Democratic consultant Steve Schale pointed out right after the state court ruling, we had a state minimum wage pass in 2004, yet Republican Mel Martinez was elected to the U.S. Senate. Medical marijuana was on the ballot in 2014, when Rick Scott was re-elected governor, and again in 2016, when Marco Rubio won re-election to the Senate. An initiative restoring voting rights for felons won in 2018, the same day DeSantis was elected governor and Scott beat former U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla.

And the Constitution isn’t easy to change. An amendment requires 60 percent of the statewide vote, meaning each “no” vote offsets 1.5 “yes” votes. Florida’s half-dozen proposed amendments this year will appear at the bottom of the ballot, so many people who care about the presidency, Congress or their city and county races could skip the referendums down there.

The Florida Democratic Party has often shown that, given time and careful planning, it could mess up an anvil. It may still blow this year’s opportunity, especially if Trump and the GOP scare enough voters on other stuff like the economy and immigration.

Still, having abortion on the ballot is the best thing Democrats have going for them — and the last thing Republicans wanted.

Bill Cotterell is a retired Capitol reporter for United Press International and the Tallahassee Democrat. He can be reached at wrcott43@aol.com 

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Democrats can't count on abortion measure for revival