China-Philippines tensions grow in South China Sea
Semafor Signals
Insights from The Washington Post, Foreign Policy, and The Wall Street Journal
The News
The Philippines accused China of damaging one of its vessels in the South China Sea on Tuesday, as the two nations face off over a shoal they both claim as their own.
The Philippine coast guard said that one of its ships was damaged by a water cannon used by the Chinese coast guard, while Beijing said that it was expelling Philippine vessels from the disputed waters.
Tensions have been rising in the South China Sea, waters that China claims most of as its sovereign territory, an argument international courts have rejected.
SIGNALS
Rusting WWII-era ship at center of conflict
Source: The Washington Post
In 1999, the Philippines deliberately ran aground a World War II-era ship on the half-submerged Second Thomas Shoal, part of an effort to stake its claim to the South China Sea. The ship has ever since operated as something of a naval outpost for the Philippines — but Beijing in recent years has stepped up attempts, including the use of water cannons, to prevent Manila from bringing supplies to the vessel, The Washington Post reported. The long-running dispute between the two nations is the most dangerous of several maritime arguments between Beijing and Southeast Asian nations and the waterway, the outlet said, could be the site of “Asia’s next war.”
Philippines forging new alliances, upping risk of broader conflict
Source: Foreign Policy
Tensions in the South China Sea — parts of which are also referred to as the West Philippine Sea by Manila — have been heating up for years, with China refusing to recognize a UN tribunal that ruled in the Philippines’ favor in 2016. Bolstered by the Beijing-friendly former Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, China staked further claims to the region. That is now unraveling, as current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has forged alliances with the US, as well as Australia, Vietnam, and Japan, Foreign Policy noted earlier this month. The “possibility of fatalities, or even the sinking of a vessel, remains real,” wrote Foreign Policy deputy editor James Palmer. “It would create a major crisis that would necessitate rapid de-escalation efforts between China and the United States.”
US ‘charm offensive’ helped renew ties with Philippines
Source: The Wall Street Journal
The Biden administration has focused on wooing possible allies in Asia as its relationship with China continues to sour. As a result, ties between Manila and Washington are stronger than they have been in decades, The Wall Street Journal reported. China’s own posturing may be leading its neighbors to rely on the US, one expert noted: “China continues to overplay its hand and drive Manila right into the arms of Washington,” Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told the outlet. As a result, the US has been able to bolster its military capacity in the region, bringing its total number of marine outposts up to nine. Many of the sites would be crucial for Washington if a war broke out in the region, though they are controlled by the Philippines.
