Cardinals have their share of injuries, but Burleson is proving to be a durable option

People plan, and the deity of their choosing laughs. That, more than anything else, is the annual underlying reality of spring training.

The St. Louis Cardinals entered camp in Florida more than a month ago without many obvious roster battles and with a clear aim of how the spring should go, and less than 10 days from opening day, they’re enduring more than a fair share of upheaval which could be politely dressed up as opportunity.

“Almost nonsensical” is how president of baseball operations John Mozeliak described a question about Alec Burleson’s place on the team in the aftermath of signing Brandon Crawford. His point, once the haughtiness was shaved away, was that a great deal of time remained on the calendar, and making roster proclamations at the end of February doesn’t do anyone much good.

Indeed, the one the team did make – anointing Sonny Gray to start opening day – has already been walked back in the face of Gray’s minor hamstring injury. The Cardinals continue to maintain that he may start at some point on the seven-game season-opening trip to southern California, but even if he doesn’t make his debut until the home opener, there’s little to no expectation that he’ll be faced with an extended absence.

The absence will however be long enough that Miles Mikolas was instead pegged for his third opening day start. In the grand scheme of the calendar, that amounts to only a minor scheduling change. By the 101st start of the season, the first will barely be a memory. But even that minor alteration demonstrates the difficulty in chiseling even the most obvious outcome into stone.

That shifting landscape is ultimately what will create an opportunity for Burleson, along with his own strong play.

In his first 40 spring training plate appearances, his .353 batting average is fourth on the team among players who have appeared in at least 10 games, trailing César Prieto, Victor Scott II and Thomas Saggese. His on base (.425) and slugging (.500) percentages are tied with Saggese atop those categories, and he looks every bit the hitter whose results in 2023 significantly lagged behind what his batted ball data suggested.

Rather than a difficult ticket punched to Memphis, injuries to Tommy Edman and Lars Nootbaar now seem certain to see Burleson in Los Angeles on opening day, perhaps even in the starting lineup. What look like roster blockages are often indeed problems which resolve themselves, and a reminder of the virtues of patience.

That same logic applies to the bullpen, where Keynan Middleton’s forearm strain will also see him on the injured list to start the season. This is the fourth time in the last four seasons that Middleton will ride out a placement on the IL, each time with a designated injury to a different part of his arm. It’s as of yet unclear how much time he’s expected to miss, but it’s a safe bet that the bullpen to which he returns will not be the same one he left.

The three open spots in that bullpen at the start of camp seemed to break down into a choice between either Matthew Liberatore or Zack Thompson, either John King or Andre Pallante, and one from the bevy of high velocity, high spin arms which were added over the winter.

Now, Pallante has more than earned his spot, both Liberatore and Thompson seem likely to make the club with one taking Gray’s temporary place in the rotation, and two of Ryan Fernandez, Riley O’Brien and Nick Robertson are staring at an open bullpen gate through which they’ll be able to jog. What’s settled becomes unsettled once the recurring reality of pitching catches up to a team.

Anything that seems like finality heading into the final week of spring games carries its own expiration date, sure to go sour if anything else goes wrong. Crawford, who at the time appeared to have swiped the spot that might otherwise have been Burleson’s, is now dealing with his own injury, working through a bruised wrist after being hit by a pitch over the weekend.

Concern around Crawford is low, though he was not at shortstop in either of Tuesday’s split squad lineups. Center and left field should be sussed out in the coming days, pending a miracle recovery by Nootbaar and sorting through the various opinions around Scott’s best placement.

Tuesday’s daytime lineup against the Miami Marlins featured Brendan Donovan leading off and playing second, Paul Goldschmidt batting second and playing first, Nolan Gorman batting third as the designated hitter, Nolan Arenado hitting cleanup at third, and Willson Contreras batting fifth and catching. Those names can be written in heavy pencil in that order on the first lineup card of the season.

Not yet the positions, though.

Donovan could yet be in left field and Gorman at second. A lot of what the Cardinals thought they knew has not been nearly as durable as Burleson’s performance, and the comfort they can take in knowing they’re able to lean on their acquired depth.

Many more changes, though, and the pool will be frighteningly shallow. There’s not a lot of sense in trying to predict what those might be.