In 12 years Texas will be hotter than any year to date, see deadlier wildfires, study says

A new report on the future of extreme weather in Texas says the state is in store for hotter temperatures, increased severity of droughts and growing wildfire risks.

The report from John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist at Texas A&M University, is an updated 2024 version from his original 2021 report titled, “Assessment of Historic and Future Trends of Extreme Weather in Texas, 1900-2036.”

Nielsen-Gammon crafted the report in collaboration with Texas 2036, a non-partisan nonprofit focusing on the future of the state. In 2036, Texas will turn 200 and the group aims to provide long-term, data-driven strategies for the state to prosper for another few centuries.

“These trends represent climatological expectations,” Nielsen-Gammon said in the report. “The actual weather from year to year and decade to decade will be heavily influenced by natural variability which at this point is largely unpredictable.”

The extreme weather report takes aim at everything from hotter temperatures, to increased wildfire risks. These are climate factors that Texans dread — combining unbearable heat with sparking deadly fires. An earlier study even found that Texas is on track to see 125-degree days within 30 years. In 2022, MedStar reported a 115.6% increase in emergency calls because of the heat compared to the previous year.

Since Texas cities placed protections on workers during extremely hot days, instances of heat illnesses have dropped across the stare.

Here’s what we know:

Warmer temperatures are on the horizon for Texas

The average annual surface temperature in Texas by 2036 is expected to be several degrees warmer than in years past.

Temperatures in 2036 are expected to be 3 degrees warmer than the average from 1950-1999, and 1.6 degrees warmer than the average from 1991-2020.

“This would make a typical year around 2036 warmer than all but the absolute warmest year experienced in Texas during 1895-2020,” Nielsen-Gammon wrote.

Average temperatures themselves don’t amount to weather or climate extremes.

However, changes in average temperatures could lead to changes in frequency of extreme temperatures, whether that be increasing warmer or decreasing colder weather, Nielsen-Gammon wrote.

Since 1950, the rate of temperature increase in Texas has been 0.29 per decade, and since 1975, the rate has been 0.62 degrees per decade. Historical data and climate models lead to a similar conclusion.

“If recent trends continue, as expected, a middle-of-the-road estimate of the overall rate of temperature increase in Texas would be about 0.6 °F per decade,” Nielsen-Gammon wrote.

Triple digit days more common by 2036

Texans are already used to dozens of days over 100 degrees every year, but it could be even more in the future.

The projected changes in average temperatures, implies changes in high or low temperatures as well, Nielsen-Gammon wrote. With that, extreme summer heat is likely to surpass past years by 2036.

“Triple-digit days are well on their way to being about four times as common by 2036 than they were in the 1970s and 1980s,” Nielsen-Gammon wrote.

Wildfire risk increasing after past events

Texas annual wildfire season during the late winter months was particularly dangerous this year.

The Smokehouse Creek Fire in Hutchinson County burned for nearly three weeks earlier this year, killing two people and torching over 1 million acres. The Windy Deuce Fire burned through more than 144,000 acres in Moore, Hutchinson, Potter and Carson counties.

Rising temperatures and vapor pressure deficiency could lead to both lower humidity and increased surface dryness in the future, Nielsen-Gammon wrote.

While parts of Texas already face increased wildfire risks, such as the Panhandle, increased dryness statewide could expand the threat eastward.

“At the same time, increased temperatures should allow very dry conditions to develop earlier in the year, lengthening both the spring and summer wildfire seasons,” Nielsen-Gammon wrote.

Droughts expected to intensify in Texas

Drought conditions affect most Texas counties throughout the year. Fears of losing groundwater is a concern each year as the state breaks heat records. Water is a resource that farmers, ranchers and the state’s sprawling suburbia consume thirstily.

According to Nielsen-Gammon’s report, droughts in the state are likely to become more severe due to rising temperatures and greater variability of rainfall. By 2036, a 7% increase in summertime evaporative losses is expected to exacerbate drought conditions as surface water dries up faster.

“The majority of factors point toward increased drought severity, including more erratic runoff into reservoirs,” Nielsen-Gammon wrote.