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Elon Musk's Next Move Could Bring Tesla Plant to Mexico

Photo:  Suzanne Cordeiro/AFP (Getty Images)
Photo: Suzanne Cordeiro/AFP (Getty Images)

Tesla is very interested in Northern Mexico, General Motors has some good news, and Kia amazingly has not left Russia yet, apparently. All that and more in this edition of The Morning Shift for Tuesday, October 25, 2022.

1st Gear: Making Moves in Mexico

Tesla CEO Elon Musk was spotted in Nuevo León, Mexico over the weekend, fueling rumors that he’ll choose the region for Tesla’s next North American plant. You may recall that the Colombia border crossing in Nuevo León got its very own Tesla lane in July, so the company’s cargo could enjoy easy ingress and egress. In retrospect, maybe that should have been a more obvious tell.

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Reuters cited two people with knowledge of the matter that Musk is considering investing in the region in some capacity, having discussed these matters with local officials. Whether that’s a full factory or an effort to bolster suppliers in northern Mexico remains to be seen. Maybe both! From Reuters:

Musk recently held a meeting in the state with Nuevo Leon Governor Samuel Garcia along with other local officials and Ken Salazar, the U.S. ambassador to Mexico, one of the sources said.

Musk is looking in particular at Santa Catarina, a municipality on the outskirts of state capital Monterrey, one of Mexico’s biggest and wealthiest cities, the person added. The sources did not detail what Musk’s potential investment may entail.

A spokesperson for the Nuevo Leon government declined to comment. Neither Tesla, the U.S. embassy, nor a representative for Santa Catarina immediately responded to requests for comment.

Musk’s visit to Nuevo Leon was originally reported by Mexican media. Several outlets published photos of Musk apparently from the visit, including one in which he appears with Garcia’s wife, Mariana Rodriguez.

Garcia posted several of the media articles on his Instagram account, in one case tagging Rodriguez’s account and writing, “Look, look,” without further comment.

This is not the first time Musk has chatted business with Nuevo León Governor Samuel Garcia. In April, just before the border crossing deal was struck, Garcia paid Musk a visit at the Austin Gigafactory, according to Mexican newspaper La Verdad. The prior August, the then-Governor-elect had a Zoom call with Musk and company. This has been a long time coming, and it’s happening at a time when auto manufacturing investments in Mexico happen to be soaring, with an eye toward — you guessed it — EVs. From Automotive News:

The Texas-Mexico border area is home to hundreds of auto parts manufacturers, along with a major General Motors plant in Ramos Arizpe, Coahuila, and a sprawling Kia Corp. plant just outside Monterrey. The GM plant is retooling to make its first electric vehicles.

[...]

Last year, Mexico exported just over 2.7 million vehicles, mostly to the U.S.

As the North American auto industry shifts from combustion vehicles to EVs, Mexico is seeking to draw more EV assembly and parts investment. Ford currently makes the electric Mustang Mach-E at a factory near Mexico City.

Chinese battery supplier CATL has also been considering opening a plant in Mexico since earlier in the year, but Reuters has reported that the company has slowed its investment plan more recently on concerns over how new U.S. rules on battery sourcing will increase costs.

EV batteries will have to be composed of at least 50 percent North American-origin content by 2024 and 100 percent by 2028, so CATL will probably follow through with that plant one way or another. Tesla, too.

2nd Gear: General Motors

GM had good news to share on Tuesday, reporting a 37 percent boost to net income in the third quarter, thanks to selling many more cars over the financial period. Courtesy Automotive News:

GM’s global revenue rose 56 percent to $41.9 billion in the quarter ended Sept. 30. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes rose 47 percent to $4.3 billion.

The automaker’s net margin slid to 7.9 percent from 9 percent a year earlier.

GM earned $3.9 billion in North America before interest and taxes, an 83 percent increase. Its North American adjusted margin rose to 11.2 percent from 10.3 percent.

“We’re delivering on our commitments and affirming our full-year guidance despite a challenging environment because demand continues to be strong for GM products and we are actively managing the headwinds we face,” GM CEO Mary Barra said in a letter to shareholders Tuesday.

GM shares rose 3.4 percent to $36.95 in premarket trading.

GM confirmed its previous full-year guidance of $9.6 billion to $11.2 billion in net income and adjusted EBIT of $13 billion to $15 billion.

GM said its U.S. dealers had 359,000 vehicles in inventory at the end of the third quarter, nearly triple the number they had a year ago.

That last point is also a good indicator that the ongoing supply chain snags have started to ease up, so you’ll see plenty more Silverados and Blazers on dealer lots. Of course, whether you’re able to afford them is another story entirely.

3rd Gear: Nio

Nio is one of the leading forces in China’s EV boom, and probably the best startup poised to make a global splash. That’s not news, exactly, but if you ever suspected CEO William Li might be concerned about all that domestic competition, he’s not. From a recent interview with Automobilwoche, syndicated by Automotive News Europe:

Nio founder William Li said the number of Chinese automakers with “a real product” is between 20 and 30. Li said these include companies such as Geely and SAIC, which he says have established electric brands.

“All this competition is good because it moves the industry forward,” Li said in an interview with Automotive News Europe sister publication Automobilwoche.

“You have a lot of great automakers in Europe. Even in China, Mercedes, BMW, Audi, and the others are tough competitors. We still have a long way to go to be that strong,” Li said.

The automotive industry is currently one of the “most open markets” there is and if Nio can survive in China, it has the chance to be competitive in other markets, he said.

Also, Nio’s moving very, very fast: