Emmy Predictions The Morning After: Where I Went Wrong

I promised to come back the morning after the Emmys to discuss my “fearless” Emmy predictions, so here I am, my head held semi-high: I went five for 10 in divining who won on Sunday night.

Of the categories I speculated upon, I correctly called winners for Veep in the comedy series and actress categories, Jon Hamm as best drama actor, Jeffrey Tambor as best comedy actor, and Peter Dinklage as supporting actor in a drama series. That’s five out of ten, and — let me be honest here — the worst year I’ve had predicting the Emmys in a long time.

A couple of things tripped me up. I did not foresee the surge of support for Game of Thrones; I thought the bulk of Emmy voters would continue to look at the show as a grand-spectacle genre piece in which special effects and costumes took precedence over writing and acting skills. Also, by even hardcore fans’ estimation, this was not GoT’s finest season, as it got mired down in some murky subplots and a few controversies (the notorious rape scene; the Cersei nude shaming scene — the latter was spoofed by Jane Lynch and Emmy host Andy Samberg). But when Emmy voters decide a show has reached critical mass — that is, when its audience becomes so big it can no longer be denied — the prizes come showering down upon it.

RELATED: Emmys Show Review: ‘Game of Thrones,’ ‘Veep,’ 'Kitteridge’ Sweep, and Everyone Got What They Deserved

My miscalculation was in assuming that Emmy voters would want to send Mad Men off into the sunset with a raft of trophies, and I apparently miscalculated the degree to which Hollywood finds show creator Matthew Weiner an irritating, self-overrating artiste as much as I do.

I also said in my “fearless predictions” piece that I usually make Emmy predictions “with a combination of variables: who I think will win (based on previous Emmy awards shows) and who I hope will win (based on my personal taste and affection for a show or actor),” but that this year I was leading with my heart, going for shows and actors I really liked. What a sentimental sap I proved to be!

Thus, I chose to turn a blind eye to the clear momentum Allison Janney has for her ongoing role in Mom, a sitcom with serious subtexts that appeals to voters and enabled her to snatch the Emmy for the second consecutive year (beating the sole Veep acting nominee I hoped would win and didn’t, Anna Chlumsky).

And thus, while I enjoyed Taraji P. Henson’s performance as Cookie in Empire more than any other actress nominee’s, I ignored the weight that Oscar-nominated Viola Davis brought to her role in How To Get Away With Murder. Hers was truly a wonderful win in a couple of senses. As the first black actress to win the Emmy for best lead drama actress, her acceptance speech was moving and pointed. Also, I was glad to see that Davis won for a role in a Shonda Rhimes-produced potboiler — like the Game of Thrones win, this was a victory for genres too often left ignored by the Emmys.

But do not think I am complacent in my paltry Emmy predictions. Mustering only a 50 percent accuracy rate does not sit well with me — next year, I plan to bring all my heart, mind, cynicism, and possibly a session with a psychic to bear upon my predictions for next year. I did a great job in my living room predicting all those Olive Kitteridge wins, though…