My Fearless Emmy Predictions: Jon Hamm, 'Veep,' Taraji P. Henson...

I used to make Emmy predictions with a combination of variables: who I think will win (based on previous Emmy awards shows) and who I hope will win (based on my personal taste and affection for a show or actor), with a little there’s-always-a-surprise mindfulness tossed in there. This year, I’m going out on a limb and, in these 10 most-important categories, I’m sticking with the shows and performers I really want to see holding an Emmy and making an acceptance speech on Sunday night. I’ll come back on Monday morning to let you know one of two things: That I was a brilliant success at predicting, or a dismal failure. Make sure you pick your own winners so we can compare notes.

Drama Series: Better Call Saul, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, Homeland, House of Cards, Mad Men, Orange Is the New Black

It was the final season of Mad Men, and I think it’s the year it will dominate the awards. Yes, maybe Game of Thrones has a shot, but I don’t think Emmy voters can resist giving Mad Men’s final season — especially its very good final half-season — an Emmy send-off.

Comedy Series: Louie, Modern Family, Parks and Recreation, Silicon Valley, Transparent, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, Veep

Modern Family usually wins this category, and unlike a lot of critics, I still think Family is very good. But to my funnybone, Veep was more funny this season, its portrayal of former-Veep, now President Selina Meyer exciting and tumultuous, giving the entire cast great stand-out moments.

Lead Actor in a Drama Series: Kyle Chandler, Bloodline; Jeff Daniels, Newsroom; Jon Hamm, Mad Men; Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul; Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan; Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

Can you believe that Jon Hamm has never won an Emmy for portraying Don Draper? Do you doubt that he won’t win this time around, coming off a finale whose climax was all about Draper’s moment of blissed-out inspiration?

Lead Actress in a Drama Series: Claire Danes, Homeland; Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder; Taraji P. Henson, Empire; Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black; Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men; Robin Wright, House of Cards

I would love to see Taraji P. Henson win for Empire, so that’s who I’ll go with in my prediction — no performance this year was as passionate within the context of a groundbreaking network drama. But two other performances will give Henson very strong challenges: Viola Davis, the odds-on favorite for another freshman drama, How To Get Away With Murder, and Tatiana Maslany in Orphan Black — the kind of multiple-role performance that Emmy voters like to reward.

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series: Anthony Anderson, Black-ish; Louis C.K., Louie; Don Cheadle, House of Lies; Will Forte, The Last Man on Earth; Matt LeBlanc, Episodes; William H. Macy, Shameless; Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Although I really enjoyed Anthony Anderson in the underrated-by-critics Black-ish, I have to hand my support to Jeffrey Tambor in Transparent. I wasn’t as high on the series as many of my colleagues — I found it frequently self-satisfied — but I was tremendously impressed at the way Tambor gave a performance that was hilarious, serious, moving, and utterly unlike any he’s given in a long, excellent TV career.

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series: Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie; Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep; Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation; Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer; Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie

I have a sentimental feeling for Amy Poehler pulling off a surprise win for the final season of Parks and Recreation, but for bravura acting ability, no one matched Julia Louis-Dreyfus’s powerhouse portrayal of a President under siege in Veep. Does that sentence make it sound as though Louis-Dreyfus was starring in a drama? Well, that’s the kind of ferocious intensity she brought to her work — while also being exceptionally funny.

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series: Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul; Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline; Jim Carter, Downton Abbey; Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones; Alan Cumming, The Good Wife; Michael Kelly, House of Cards

Yes, Jonathan Banks was very good and offered a fine, bigger showcase in Better Call Saul than he had in Breaking Bad, and yes, Ben Mendelsohn was superbly subtle and elusive in his Bloodline role, but Peter Dinklage gave the best performance in Game of Thrones: sly and subtle, full of grand gestures and genuine poignance. He deserves the win.

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey; Lena Headey, Game of Thrones; Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones; Christine Baranski, The Good Wife; Christina Hendricks, Mad Men; Uzo Aduba, Orange Is the New Black

After so many seasons spent doing good work in a role that required her to fight against her character’s sex-symbol stereotyping, Christina Hendricks was really able to make Joan a rich, three-dimensional character in the final season of Mad Men. Credit must go to creator Matthew Weiner and his writers in this area, of course, but it was Hendricks’ increasingly nuanced performance that gave it life.

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series: Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine; Adam Driver, Girls; Keegan-Michael Key, Key & Peele; Ty Burrell, Modern Family; Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt; Tony Hale, Veep

As I said earlier, I am more of a Modern Family fan than most critics, and therefore watched Ty Burrell’s performance this past season with great interest and pleasure. Given many stand-out opportunities to shine as a physical comic, I was also struck by the layers of poignance Burrell brings to playing a man who loves his family to a nearly absurd degree — without going over-the-top. The wild-card potential winner here is Tituss Burgess in Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, and never count out the fine Tony Hale in Veep.

But I’m going with Burrell.

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series: Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory; Niecy Nash, Getting On; Julie Bowen, Modern Family; Allison Janney, Mom; Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live; Gaby Hoffmann, Transparent; Jane Krakowski, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt; Anna Chlumsky, Veep

I’m really taking a risk here. The smart money is on Allison Janney to repeat last year’s win for Mom, and she was certainly given chances to show both comic and serious sides of her character in scenes that might manipulate voters. But I have to go with the performance I enjoyed the most: Anna Chlumsky as Amy Brookheimer, who left her Chief of Staff job, underwent a hilariously neurotic transition back into civilian life, only to make a not-so-triumphant return to the Meyer cabinet. It was a terrific journey Chlumsky took us on.

Who do you think will win?

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The Emmy Awards air Sept. 20 at 8 p.m. ET on Fox. Be sure to tune into Yahoo’s 67th Emmy Awards red carpet, live at 3:30 p.m. PT/ 6:30 p.m. ET.