Will Wichita see another scorching summer? See latest outlook, from temps to El Niño

You might need to start wearing your jacket in the Wichita area this week.

While temperatures have been sitting comfortably between the 70s to 80s the last few days, you can expect a 10- to 20-degree drop for the next few days.

The latest forecast shows highs in the 60s Thursday through Sunday. However, the National Weather Service said in a social media post there’s a high chance Wichita will continue to see warmer-than-average temperatures in the next eight to 14 days.

So, what does the warmer weather indicate about late spring and summer in Wichita? That’s hard to say, Eric Metzger, a forecaster from the National Weather Service told The Eagle.

The one-month outlook for Kansas from the federal Climate Prediction Center shows the state has equal chances of temperatures being below normal or above normal for the month of May. Looking at the three-month outlook for June, July and August, south-central Kansas has a 40 to 50% chance of experiencing warmer-than-normal temperatures.

There is one major factor that could affect the weather this summer, however. Here’s what you can expect for the coming months.

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What weather pattern is Kansas experiencing?

Much of the U.S. is transitioning to a neutral weather pattern, which is what happens when we are between El Niño and La Niña. We are expected to be under a La Niña weather pattern starting in mid to late summer, according to longterm weather models.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says El Niño occurs when warm water is pushed east, making the Pacific jet stream move south of its normal position due to warmer waters.

Meanwhile, La Niña happens when winds push warm water to Asia, which then brings cold water to the surface. The cold water pushes the Pacific jet stream north.

While El Niño usually favors cooler summers for Kansas, La Niña typically offers the opposite. For Kansas specifically, this could mean drier weather.

“In general La Niñas tend to provide drier periods for the Kansas area in general. It doesn’t mean that we can’t have a wet period, because there are other factors that come into play,” Metzger said. “It just depends on what happens to be the primary force at the time. So while it tends to do that, we can’t guarantee it.”

Last summer, extreme heat amid an El Niño pattern led to record-breaking temperatures.

What can Wichita expect from the weather?

The Old Farmer’s Almanac 12-month precipitation and temperature prediction for Wichita foresees normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for June and July, then higher-than-normal temperatures and precipitation for August.

The almanac’s predictions come from an under-wraps formula that looks at things like planetary positioning, sunspot activity and the moon’s tidal action.

Here’s the latest data-driven forecast in Wichita from the National Weather Service:

• Friday: High around 60 degrees, chance of showers in the evening with a low of 44.

• Saturday: Chance of showers and a high around 56. Chance of showers in the evening with a low of 42.

• Sunday: A high near 62 and a low around 43.

• Monday: High near 73 and a low 52, chances of thunderstorms in the evening.

• Tuesday: High near 72 and low near 40 with a chance of thunderstorms all day.