Why Trump loyalists in Carolinas are moving onto November — regardless of Nikki Haley

Despite Nikki Haley’s best efforts, the 2024 GOP presidential primary may be close to a conclusion just four states into the nominating process.

South Carolina Republicans went to the polls Saturday, and their North Carolina counterparts will do the same March 5, as the party officially decides whether to nominate Donald Trump or Haley as its candidate for president. For the thousands cheering his arrival at Winthrop Coliseum Friday, Trump’s nomination is inevitable.

“Honestly we’re not very worried about tomorrow. We want to aim for Nov. 5,” Trump said in the opening minutes of his almost two-hour speech at the Rock Hill rally.

Former President Trump has won every 2024 Republican nominating contest so far, including the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. Even in Nevada, where Trump was running in the state’s caucus while Haley ran in its primary, Haley lost to the “none of these candidates” option by a margin of 63.2% to 30.7%.

He won a decisive victory over Haley in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, with nearly 60% of 755,800 votes cast. And Trump holds a commanding lead in North Carolina, according to polling data.

Haley preempted her likely home state loss by vowing earlier this week to stay in the race — setting up a potentially protracted battle for the GOP nomination. She reiterated that commitment during a speech Saturday night.

Is Trump’s primary win inevitable?

Haley, the former U.N. ambassador and governor of South Carolina, trailed Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s final polling average for the state’s primary by a margin of 34.1% to 61.7%. The margins are worse in North Carolina and national polls: 21% to 74.8% and 15.6% to 76.7%, respectively.

At Friday’s rally, Trump and a fleet of surrogates took aim at Haley on that front.

“The beautiful thing about being in South Carolina tomorrow is that our state, South Carolina, we pick presidents. (Trump) will be the presumptive nominee when he wins big tomorrow night, and it’s a huge mistake for anyone within our party to continue to take shots at him … This will be a two man race come Sunday morning,” Rep. Nancy Mace, a Charleston Republican, told the Charlotte Observer.

Mace, a one-time Haley ally and Trump critic who boasted about Haley’s influential support when running for Congress, said Haley is making “an enormous mistake” by continuing to attack Trump “when he’s going to be the nominee.”

“The Republican primary voters in every single state in this country are voting overwhelmingly for Donald Trump,” she said.

In his speech to supporters Friday, Trump called himself the true arbiter of conservative values and accused Haley of aligning herself with Democratic fundraisers in the wake of a Politico analysis that found she’s received donations from thousands of donors who previously gave to President Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign.

Her camp tried to increase her chances by taking advantage of South Carolina’s open primary, Politico reported, though it wasn’t “openly courting Democrats.”

“She’s essentially a Democrat ... Probably she should switch parties,” Trump said.

Targeting Haley with direct, biting criticism became a Trump campaign tactic after the primary became a two-person race. Campaign advisors released a memo last week referring to Haley as a “wailing loser hell-bent on an alternative reality and refusing to come to grips with her imminent political mortality.” Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara later in the week called her continued campaign “embarrassing.”

“The people that know her best, hate her,” the former president’s eldest son, Donald Trump, Jr., said at a campaign event Friday.

But Haley has doubled-down on her candidacy, pledging this week in a “state of the race” speech to stay in despite high odds of losing. Her campaign touted a hefty fundraising haul in January, though she still trails Trump in cash on hand, and announced “a seven-figure ad buy across Super Tuesday states.”

“We know the odds here, but we also know the stakes,” Haley campaign manager Betsy Ankney told reporters Friday.

Trump supporters: Haley is harming party unity

Waiting in line for Friday’s Trump rally, voter Dawn Gartland said she doesn’t believe Haley’s campaign has any chance of success.

“I think it’s very selfish of her, and it’s disgusting,” the York County Republican said of Haley staying in the race. “She should drop out and let our party unite together.”

Gartland pushed back on Haley’s narrative that she’s a stronger general election candidate than Trump, saying she believes the former president can compete in November “if it’s a fair election.”

“She can’t tell us what state she’s going to win,” Gartland said about Haley.

Valerie McMillan, who came to Friday’s event from North Carolina, said she thinks Haley “is an idiot for staying in the race.”

“That’s just ridiculous,” she said.

Mitch McGregor — a Texan who has followed the Trump campaign from Iowa to New Hampshire and, now, South Carolina — offered a similar assessment of Haley’s chances.

“She’s going to get smoked,” he said.

Can Trump defeat Biden in general election?

A key tenet of Haley’s campaign has been claims she is a more viable candidate to take on Biden in November’s general election. She’s taken aim at both Trump and Biden for their ages — she’s 52, Trump is 77 and Biden is 81 — and accused Trump of leaving a trail of chaos in the GOP.

“We can go with the same old thing or we can move forward. The same old thing is not just Joe Biden, the same old thing is Donald Trump,” she said at a campaign event in Indian Land in early February. “... Are we really going to have a country in disarray while the world is on fire and choose from two 80-year-olds? Because we need somebody who can work eight years, focused, disciplined to get us back on track.”

The former governor, who served in the Trump administration as UN ambassador, has frequently pointed to polling data that show her faring better against Biden than Trump come November.

A Marquette Law School Poll released this week shows Trump with a narrow lead over Biden: 51% to 49% among registered voters and 52% to 48% among likely voters. The same poll showed Haley leading 58% to 42% among registered voters over Biden.

“Haley holds Republican support against Biden as well as Trump does, while attracting a substantial cross-over vote from Democrats. Independents support Haley by a substantial margin … Her strength with Republicans combined with an ability to attract more Democratic and independent voters than does Trump accounts for her stronger overall support against Biden than Trump’s,” Marquette poll director Charles Franklin said.

Other national polls have shown similar results, but Haley’s path to a nomination remains murky.

Asked by the Associated Press what primaries she can win, the candidate pivoted to Trump’s ongoing legal troubles.

“Instead of asking me what states I’m gonna win, why don’t we ask how he’s gonna win a general election after spending a full year in a courtroom?” she said.

At Friday’s Trump event, Mace predicted that Haley won’t be able to win over enough Republican support to win out, despite her focus on November.

“The problem with her data is that’s not where the base is … No matter what Haley’s math is, the math is right now that Republican voters want Donald Trump as their nominee. That’s basic math,” she said.

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