What's at Stake in Tonight's Tiebreaker
Mitt Romney won the first 2012 presidential debate decisively, while President Obama rebounded two weeks later with a narrow victory. That leaves Monday’s third and final faceoff — one set to focus on foreign policy — as the tiebreaker.
And in a razor-tight race, the winner could very well go on to claim the White House. Here are the stakes:
Large Audience, Last Chance. The third debate will be seen by tens of millions of people, the last chance for both candidates to make their appeal to so many Americans. The pressure to deliver a solid performance is high. There are no more do-overs.
Commander-in-Chief Credentials. Obama was able to erase a decades-long perception that Republicans were stronger on national security. But his administration was shaken by the terrorist attack in Libya and recent polls have shown Obama’s once-formidable edge on foreign policy slipping.
Libya, Round Two. The candidates’ tense exchange over the Libya attack, and the White House’s response, was probably the most important moment of the second presidential debate. And Obama clearly won the showdown. How both candidates handle the issue in the debate will offer a preview of how Libya will play in the remaining weeks of the race.
Vision. This is both candidates’ last, best chance to leave voters with forward-looking details about what a first Romney administration or a second Obama term would look like.
Be Nice. Romney and Obama didn’t win points for political decorum last week. Voters, especially coveted moderates and independents, didn’t like the tone. If either candidate can rise above the fray, the political gain could be significant. Their performances could determine which candidate heads toward Election Day as more likable — and since 1984, likability has been a key indicator of who will win.
—Naureen Khan and Alex Roarty
NATIONAL JOURNAL’S PRESIDENTIAL RACE REPORT
Why Obama is Relying More on the Rustbelt than the Sunbelt
[National Journal, 10/22/12] Contrary to what many observers expected when the race began, the Rustbelt states are more receptive to Obama’s attacks on Romney’s business experience, while the Sunbelt states are more responsive to Romney’s portrayal of Obama as a big-spending government liberal. NJ’s Ron Brownstein explains the economic circumstances surrounding the shift.
State Polls Show Edge for Obama in Electoral College NEW!
[New York Times, 10/22/12] The Times’s Nate Silver writes that while nationally Obama doesn’t seem to have gotten much of a bounce from his second debate performance last week, the president still maintains a slight lead in several crucial battleground state polls taken after the debate.
Romney Campaign Emphasizes Iranian Diplomacy Ahead of Debate
[National Journal, 10/22/12] Just hours ahead of Monday night’s debate on foreign policy – and just a day after The New York Times reported the U.S. and Iran had agreed to start negotiations over the country’s nuclear program -- the Romney camp is emphasizing diplomacy, rather than military strikes, on Iran.
Debate Moderating: A Thankless Job
[Associated Press, 10/21/12] Jim Lehrer was criticized for not doing enough, Candy Crowley for doing too much. Thanks to a bitter campaign rivalry, thriving partisan media outlets and the growth of social media, debate moderator is approaching baseball umpire on the scale of thankless jobs.
Republicans Assess the Foreign Policy Debate NEW!
[National Review, 10/22/12] As Republicans note how Obama’s foreign policy poll numbers have fallen of late, campaign sources tell NR’s Robert Costa that Romney is “eager to blast the president’s leadership.”
Determining Romney’s Official Stance on Abortion
[Washington Post, 10/22/12] The Post’s fact checkers try to get to the bottom of competing claims on Romney’s evolving stance on abortion and award "Three Pinocchios" to a new Obama ad on the issue.
The Voter-Fraud Myth
[New Yorker, 10/21/12] A lengthy profile by Jane Mayer of Hans von Spakovsky, a conservative lawyer behind much of the GOP’s recent efforts at instituting voter I.D. laws.
The Republican Response to Benghazi Was Just as Bad as Obama’s
[Slate, 10/22/12] Ahead of tonight’s debate, William Saletan writes that much of what you’ve heard about the attack on the diplomatic mission in Libya is mistaken: for instance, the idea that an anti-Muslim video did not prompt the attack? That's wrong.
Opinion: Presidential Mitt
[New York Times, 10/21/12] The Times’s Bill Keller has some advice for Romney on the eve of the third and final presidential debate, which will focus on foreign policy. Romney’s goal for Monday night, Keller writes, is to set a tone and an agenda that wins the respect of those who pay attention to the subject, while reassuring the broader electorate that he can be trusted with our security.
Romney’s Toughest Debate
[Politico, 10/21/12] It will be almost impossible for Romney to win Monday night’s debate, since the debate is focused exclusively on foreign policy, a strength for Obama. Still, the Romney campaign sees this debate as the last chance to move the needle in any significant way in crucial swing states.
Romney’s Big Chance With Jewish Voters
[Reuters, 10/22/12] Romney is not going to win the Jewish vote, but he can narrow the margin between himself and the president. During Monday night’s debate, Romney can use the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran, Egypt, and even Syria to make a case that Obama’s policies are wrong for the Jewish state.
Around the World, Perceptions of Obama-Romney Contest Lag Reality
[Washington Post, 10/21/12] From Europe to China to the Middle East, perceptions of the contest have lagged behind indications that the two men are in a virtual dead heat. Obama remains widely popular abroad, and there are signs that many leaders are unprepared for a Romney presidency.
First Weekend of Early Voting Favors Obama in Battleground Nevada
[National Journal, 10/22/12] Democrats across the country are pushing their supporters to lock in their votes as early as possible. And after two days of early voting in the battleground state of Nevada, Democrats boast that figures released by county elections officials show they hold a significant lead.
Pennsylvania: Last-Minute Game-Changer?
[Wall Street Journal, 10/21/12] While polls show the race tightening in several states that previously had dropped off the list of battlegrounds, Pennsylvania is an intriguing possibility for a late-in-the-game investment.
Campaigns Skirt Talk of Tough Choices in Afghanistan
[New York Times, 10/21/12] There has not been much substantive discussion all campaign season about how to manage the longest-running conflict in American history. But for either Obama or Romney, finding a satisfactory end to the war in Afghanistan and maintaining American influence in the continuing covert battle in Pakistan will be a challenge.
