Wetter winter? El Niño season threatens to bring 'above average' rain to Daytona area
Although many Volusia and Flagler residents are excited to see some cooler temperatures this winter, the area’s dry season might be wetter than normal.
Why? Because it’s El Niño season.
The phenomenon causes water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean to rise, which leads to the Pacific jet stream moving south of its neutral position, according to the National Weather Service.
“With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual,” according to the agency. “But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.”
'The house started shaking': Palm Coast tornado victims share story
El Niño occurs every two to seven years, but not on a regular schedule.
What are the effects of El Niño 2023?
According to Scott Kelly, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne, there is a 69% chance that the East Central Florida region will see “above average” precipitation numbers from December to February.
“El Niño, during the winter and spring time, typically does produce more rainfall for Central Florida,” Kelly said. “The tropical Pacific jet stream becomes stronger,” making storms track deeper to the South than usual, thus bringing more rain, he explained.
The average winter rainfall in the Daytona Beach area is around 7.4 inches, according to Kelly.
He said that lower temperatures do not necessarily follow the expected rise in rainfall, but it could happen.
Tornadoes in Florida: Though uncommon, some Florida tornadoes have proven deadly. Here are a few.
“The signal in an El Niño is stronger for higher rainfall. Temperature wise, the signal is less clear,” Kelly said. “You can have cooler conditions maybe because of the increased clouds and precipitation that occurs. It doesn’t mean that there will be more cold fronts.”
Will the cool weather continue in Daytona Beach?
Though it is likely that Volusia and Flagler counties are in for a wetter winter, it is still early to say precisely when the effects of the Pacific phenomenon will start.
What is clearer is that the past few days of cooler temperatures are almost over — at least for now.
“We are in a slow warming trend at the moment” Kelly said.
Temperatures are likely to climb back up to the mid-80s by the weekend, a jump from the 60- to 70-degree range seen at the beginning of the week.
But that’s not the end of the cooler weather stretches for the area, Kelly said.
“We’ll definitely see more cold fronts come through,” he said, though not in the immediate future.
Area residents should also be aware, Kelly added, of strong winds coming next week.
“After this weekend, we are going to get into a pattern of pretty brisk onshore winds next week,” Kelly said. “And that will be pretty prolonged for several days next week. It will produce some hazardous boating and surfing conditions.”
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Daytona Beach weather will see effects of El Niño 2023
