Weather Blog: Alert Day for Severe Weather Potential Monday into Early Tuesday
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark., (KNWA/KFTA)— An Alert Day has been issued for this Monday because of our severe weather potential. This has the potential to be a significant severe weather event with all hazards possible including tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center has included a lot of the forecast area in a Day 2 enhanced risk for severe weather. This level 3 out of 5 enhanced risk means that many severe storms are likely with all hazards possible. The risk area you see below will be updated by the Storm Prediction Center early Monday morning.
The main concern is significant very large hail. In the hatched area below we could see hail above 2″ (hen egg) in diameter. The secondary threat is damaging winds. The best chance for winds of 60 MPH will be in the red shaded area. The tornado threat is low but definitely not zero. We have to stay alert all day Monday for severe weather potential.
The main update in the is article is the timing. The models have trended to have the main energy move in a little later Monday evening. Below is a look at the HRRR model. Notice how it shows cloud cover and some storm activity Monday morning. Those storms look to be elevated with a large hail threat. Chances for storms will increase Monday afternoon/evening ahead of a dryline/cold front. The front looks to push through Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. This is the best chance for severe weather will all modes including very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes possible.
Lets look at some reasoning behind this outlook. Remember the 4 ingredients needed for severe weather. They are outlined below.
The first ingredient we need is the moisture. It is on the increase with those gusty south winds. These winds will usher in some Gulf of Mexico moisture. Instability, especially surface based instability, is still in question considering the recent model trends. Most models show cloud cover with shower and storm chances in place Monday morning. This would make the surface based instability less for Monday afternoon and evening. However, if the atmosphere is capped through most of Monday and we stay dry with more sun the models could be underdoing the instability. To sum it up, if we see quiet weather with sunshine Monday morning the severe weather threat will be greater for Monday afternoon into Monday night. The source of lift is the dryline/cold front and low level wind shear will definitely be present. That being said we could see a prefrontal trough out ahead of the cold front. This would serve as another trigger for severe storms. Check out the Future Track dew points, cape, and the energy helicity index below. The cape is a measure of the instability, and the energy helicity index takes into account instability and wind shear.
We’ll continue to keep you updated in our newscasts and on social media as we get closer.
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