Voter turnout for Tuesday’s primary remains low in Modesto-area and statewide

Stanislaus County voter turnout now stands at nearly 20% in the most recent update from Tuesday’s primary election and mirrors statewide turnout.

The county’s final turnout could hit about 30% based on an estimate from the county Elections Office on the number of ballots that remain to be processed and counted. The office has 30 days after the election to finish its count and certify the results, according to state law.

“It sounds awful — one in three people voting,” said Dave Colnic, a political scientist at California State University, Stanislaus. “But primaries typically have lower turnout than general elections.”

He said voters may have stayed home because it’s a “foregone conclusion who will be the presidential nominees.” He said the other races on the ballot are important but did not generate as much excitement among voters.

Colnic said voters also may be fatigued. “We’ve been in such a hyper partisan, polarized environment for several years,” he said. Voters “can’t keep up that enthusiasm.”

Turnout in Stanislaus County was about 44% in the 2016 and 2020 primary elections.

The Election Office latest update, which was released Thursday afternoon, showed voter turnout at 19.6% among the county’s 285,977 registered voters. The California Secretary of State showed statewide voter turnout at 20.8% as of Thursday.

Modesto Mayor Sue Zwhalen continued to have a commanding lead in the latest update, with nearly 83% percent of the vote versus 9% for Sebastian Jones and 7% for Dewey Bedford Jr. Zwahlen who is seeking her second term won’t face a runoff election in November because she received at least a majority of the votes.

Turnout for the mayor’s race stood at 21.2% in the Election Office’s latest update.

Assemblyman Juan Alanis, R-Modesto, continued to lead Jessica Self in the race for the 22nd Assembly District, with 56.2% of the vote compared with 43.8% for Self. But the two will face each other in the Nov. 5 election.

The 22nd Assembly District takes in most of Stanislaus County, including Modesto and Turlock, and a small part of Merced County. Alanis is a former Stanislaus County sheriff’s sergeant and Self is an attorney who does health and human services work for the county. The two ran against each other in 2022.

Assemblyman Heath Flora, R-Ripon, continued his commanding lead over retired Lodi businesswoman Tami Nobriga with 73.9% of the vote compared with 26.1% for his opponent.

Flora represents the 9th District, a largely rural area including Oakdale, Riverbank, Escalon, Manteca and Lodi. Flora and Nobriga will face each other in November.

In a rematch between Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, and former Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, to represent California’s 13th Congressional District, the incumbent was leading with 54.4% of the vote in the most recent update to Gray’s 45.6%. The two will face off in November.

Longtime Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, continued his lead over two challengers for California’s 5th Congressional District with 57.5% of the vote compared with 33.7% for Democrat Michael Barkley of Manteca and 8.8% for Steve Wozniak of Modesto. Wozniak was listed as no party preference on the ballot. McClintock and Barkley will face each other in November.

This is the first time Modesto voters elected a mayor in a primary. If Zwahlen had failed to receive a majority of the vote she would have faced the second place finisher in November.

Modesto moved the election to increase voter turnout. The race for mayor typically features several candidates and a runoff because no one gets a majority of the vote.

That was the case when Zwahlen ran for mayor in November 2020. She was the top vote-getter with 23.8% of the vote among eight candidates. Turnout was 77.1% but it plummeted to 29.4% in the February 2021 runoff when she beat former Councilman Doug Ridenour.

Colnic said it’s too soon to judge the success of moving the mayoral election to the primary. Zwahlen’s two opponents were running for mayor for the first time and had never held elected office.