UNF poll says Trump could lose 9% of his voters if he is convicted on criminal charges

A poll released Thursday shows Donald Trump faces political as well as legal jeopardy if he is found guilty of criminal charges by a jury.

The nationwide survey by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab found that most respondents would not be swayed by the outcome of any the four felony cases — including the ongoing New York trial — but the 2024 presumptive GOP nominee risks losing nearly 10% of his supporters if he is convicted.

"A sizable majority said a criminal conviction for Trump wouldn’t affect their vote, which makes sense for folks who have their minds made up,” said Michael Binder, the director of UNF's Public Opinion Research Lab. “What could dramatically impact the election is the 9% of Trump voters who said they’d be less likely to vote for him if he’s convicted.”

That's a crucial electorate, Binder added, given that Trump led President Joe Biden in the poll by 2-percentage points, 47% to 45%, which was well within the four-point margin of error. In addition, 3% of those surveyed said they remained undecided.

“Trump is up by 2 percentage points among this sample, but with another 3% who aren’t sure, a four-point margin of error, and the importance of individual states in the Electoral College, it will likely be a very close race six months from now,” Binder added.

“Interestingly, 6% of respondents who said they voted for Biden in 2020 report switching to team Trump in 2024, with 4% going to another candidate. Conversely, only 2% of 2020 Trump voters said they’re making the jump to Biden, and another 2% said they’d vote for someone else.”

What the poll revealed about how a Trump conviction might sway, or not, voters

When asked how a Trump criminal conviction might impact their decision, 67% said it would have no influence, 24% said they would be less likely to vote for Trump, including the 9% who identified as Trump supporters, and 7% said they would then be more likely to cast a ballot for him.

The trial in New York is in its second week, and the prosecution began calling witnesses on Monday. Trump is under a gag order but continues to rail against the proceedings.

"This is a Political Witch Hunt — ELECTION INTERFERENCE," he posted again on his social media platform on Wednesday.

The poll also confirmed, again, that both major party presumptive nominees remain unpopular.

Biden registered only 39% with "either a strongly or somewhat favorable" and 57% unfavorable. Trump rated a little better at 43% favorable and 54% unfavorable.

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. broke even at 35%, but almost a third of respondents said they did not know enough about him to draw a conclusion.

The survey of 745 likely voters was conducted April 8-20, including the week in which a jury was seated for Trump's trial on charges of committing business fraud to cover a purported hush-money payment to an adult film actress, Stormy Daniels, in the weeks before the 2016 election. Trump has entered a not-guilty plea and has denied claims he had an affair with Daniels.

Trump said states rights should decide abortion policy. What voters said in the UNF poll.

The poll also found the country fairly split on the issue of abortion, particularly if it should be decided by Congress or state legislatures as is Trump's position now.

Just under half, 48% said it should be decided on Capitol Hill, with 30% saying it should be dealt with "entirely at the national level" and 18% saying "mostly at the national level." Only 38% called for the issue to be settled by the states, with 21% responding "entirely at the state level" and 17% choosing "mostly at the state level."

Half of respondents supported a national ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother, while 40% opposed it and 10% were unsure.

On Tuesday, Biden spoke in Tampa where he again made reproductive rights a centerpiece of his campaign, and took aim at the six-week abortion ban about to take hold in Florida next week.

"Look, next week, one of the nation’s most extreme anti-abortion laws will take affect here in Florida," the president said. "It’s criminalizing reproductive health care for — before women even know whether they’re pregnant."

UNF's Binder said the poll's results suggest that while the abortion issue remains a hot button, in Florida and elsewhere, it may not be as determinative in November.

“With the repeal of Roe and the passage of restrictive abortion laws in multiple states, it has beena top issue across the country,” said Binder. "Whether or not that issue alone is enough to propel Biden tovictory in November is another story.”

Antonio Fins is a politics and business editor at The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach him at afins@pbpost.com. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Poll says Trump could lose 9% of voters if convicted on criminal charges