UNF national poll: Trump up by 2% among likely voters, Biden supporters unenthusiastic about voting

A new national poll from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) asked likely voters across the country about various national policy issues, the 2024 vote choice and select candidate favorability.

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Respondents were asked who they would vote for in the upcoming presidential election if the candidates were Joe Biden and Donald Trump. In the results, 47% said they would vote for Trump, 45% indicated a vote for Biden, 4% said another candidate and 2% said they wouldn’t vote. The last 3% said they didn’t know or refused to answer.

“Trump is up by 2 percentage points among this sample, but with another 3% who aren’t sure, a 4-point margin of error and the importance of individual states in the Electoral College, it will likely be a very close race 6 months from now,” commented Michael Binder, the UNF professor in charge of the study. “Interestingly, 6% of respondents who said they voted for Biden in 2020 report switching to team Trump in 2024 with 4% going to another candidate. Conversely, only 2% of 2020 Trump voters said they’re making the jump to Biden, and another 2% said they’d vote for someone else.”

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All respondents were then asked how it would affect their vote choice if Donald Trump were convicted of a crime in any of his pending criminal cases, to which 67% of the overall sample said it would not change their vote, 24% said they’d be less likely to vote for Trump and 7% more likely.

“A sizable majority said a criminal conviction for Trump wouldn’t affect their vote, which makes sense for folks who have their minds made up,” Binder stated. “What could dramatically impact the election is the 9% of Trump voters who said they’d be less likely to vote for him if he’s convicted.”

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Both President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump had a majority of respondents report unfavorable opinions rather than favorable ones. Biden had the lowest overall favorability with just 39% reporting either a strongly or somewhat favorable opinion and 57% unfavorable. Donald Trump fared only slightly better with 43% favorable and 54% unfavorable. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was the only one of the 3 candidates with a net neutral favorability at 35% each; however, a substantial 31% said they don’t know or refused to answer.

“Voters across the board don’t seem to be huge fans of any of these candidates even within their own parties,” said Binder. “In fact, a substantial portion — 15% — said they have an unfavorable opinion of both Biden and Trump, and 5% don’t like any of the 3. It’s worth noting that only 11% of these double-haters said they were voting for a third candidate with 43% indicating they would vote for Biden and 30% going to Trump.”

When asked about their enthusiasm for the November election, 32% of respondents said they were not at all enthusiastic, 33% said somewhat enthusiastic and just 33% said they were very enthusiastic. About 2% said they didn’t know or refused.

“It’s no surprise that people aren’t particularly excited about the election, given the low favorability of the candidates,” Binder said. “Enthusiasm is highest among 2024 Trump voters and, unsurprisingly, lowest among third-party and undecided voters. A whopping 40% of self-reported Biden voters in 2024 are not at all enthusiastic about voting for him – which could lead to a turnout problem for Democrats in the fall.”

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Respondents were also asked the most important issue in making their 2024 presidential vote choice. The most popular response was the economy with 27%, followed by immigration and border control with 11% and in third place, abortion and women’s rights issues with 10%.

When asked whether they think more immigrants enter the United States legally or illegally, 53% of respondents said they think a lot more enter illegally. About 13% said slightly more enter illegally, 10% said slightly more enter legally and another 10% said a lot more enter legally. About 3% said that about the same number enter illegally and legally.

“Immigration is complicated and can be measured many different ways — both legal and illegal — which makes it very difficult for the country to rationally discuss this issue with a common set of facts,” said Binder. “One thing is clear: it’s a big issue for voters this election, especially among Trump voters.”

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In another set of questions, respondents were asked their opinions on abortion policy. When asked whether they think policies surrounding abortion access should be decided at the national or state level, 30% said entirely at the national level, 18% said mostly at the national level, 17% said mostly at the state level and 21% said entirely at the state level. Respondents were also asked if they would support or oppose a national ban on abortion after 15 weeks, except in cases of rape, incest or to save the life of the mother. About 50% said they would support such a ban, either strongly or somewhat, while 40% opposed it. About 10% said they didn’t know or refused to answer. In a third question, respondents were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with the Alabama Supreme Court’s recent decision defining frozen human embryos as people, to which 59% said they disagreed, either strongly or somewhat, and 26% said they agreed.

“With the repeal of Roe and the passage of restrictive abortion laws in multiple states, it has been a top issue across the country,” said Binder, “whether or not that issue alone is enough to propel Biden to victory in November is another story.”

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Methodology

The UNF PORL Florida National Survey of 745 likely voters was conducted from April 8 through 20, 2024, by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida. A random sample was sourced from the L2 voter file, stratified into 9 geographies by Census Bureau division.

Respondents were contacted by live callers via telephone between 4:30 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. Monday through Friday and 12:30 to 5:00 p.m. on weekends with up to 4 callbacks attempted. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Data collection took place at the PORL facility with its 27-station Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching an individual by phone, asked for the listed respondent by name. If the respondent was not available, the call was terminated. The response rate for this study was 2.9%, using the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Response Rate 3 (RR3) calculation.

The survey was weighted in multiple steps. First, respondents 25 years of age or older were weighted by educational attainment, with those under 25 receiving an initial weight of one. Second, all data were weighted by partisan registration, age, race and ethnicity, sex and geographic strata to match the population of registered voters in the United States. Population demographic parameters were derived from the L2 voter file. Respondents with one or more missing demographic variables were assigned a weight of one. Next, the sample was weighted by the probability of voting in the 2024 election (a number between 0 and 1) using a logistic regression model of 2020 turnout. Finally, the vote probability weight was adjusted to account for the self-reported likelihood of voting in the 2024 election. Weights were calculated and applied using base R and the SPSS version 27 rake weighting function. The overall margin of sampling error is +/- 4.2 percentage points, including the estimated design effect. Margins of error are higher within subgroups.

PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client’s individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. As members of AAPOR, PORL’s goal is to support sound and ethical practices in the conduct of survey and public opinion research. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Michael Binder at porl@unf.edu or 904-620-2784. A copy of this report and crosstabulations can be found at www.unf.edu/coas/porl.

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