How Trump could turn a guilty verdict into a win

• Closing arguments in Trump's Manhattan criminal trial are expected this week.

• The jury will then consider whether to render a historic verdict.

• Polls show that the proceedings may change few votes, but there's potential peril ahead for Trump.

Former President Donald Trump has turned his legal woes into a conservative cause celebre.

The greatest test of that strategy could arrive as soon as later this week. Closing arguments in Trump's Manhattan hush money criminal trial are expected to occur on Tuesday. Twelve New Yorkers will then weigh the possibility of a historic verdict: finding the first-ever former president guilty in a criminal trial.

Polling shows that a guilty verdict has some potential peril. But the strongest possibility is that voters will tune it out entirely in favor of economic issues, on which Trump scores far higher than President Joe Biden.

Voters are paying attention to the trial but have thus far largely discounted it.

Trump and his allies might not have to spin much.

In a recent Quinnipiac University nationwide poll, 62% of voters said a guilty verdict would not affect their vote in November. In comparison, just 21% said it would change their minds.

A Cook Political Report polling partnership that surveyed seven battleground states found that 40% of voters said Trump's legal woes had no impact on their support or were unsure. Interestingly, the same survey found voters were broadly aware of Trump's problems when asked about the hush money trial, a previous civil fraud trial, and a separate civil trial that found the former president liable for sexually assaulting columnist E. Jean Carroll decades ago.

Voters were also asked by the Cook partnership whether they were more concerned about Biden's age or Trump's temperament and legal issues. Narrowly (53% to 47%), they said Biden's age was more concerning.

Trump has rallied Republicans, but the broader public isn't entirely convinced.

Trump has repeatedly shown he can rally Republicans to his side when his legal problems mount. But the average voter is not a GOP member of Congress nor responding to Trump's fundraising appeals.

Despite Trump's and allies' efforts to cast doubt on the entire prosecution, some polls have found that Americans see legitimacy in the process. A Yahoo News/YouGov poll found that since last month, the hush money trial's approval has increased slightly; there's now a 12-point margin of approval (49%-37%).

That's not to say many voters are sympathetic to some of Trump's claims. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll of voters in key battleground states found that among registered voters, slightly more (49%) thought that the former president would not get a fair trial than those who did (45%).

And if there is one clear takeaway from recent polling it's that the American people do think the former president did something wrong, even if he may not have broken the law. The same Yahoo poll found that a majority of Americans (52%) believe Trump falsified business records " to conceal a hush money payment to a porn star" — the charge at the center of the Manhattan case. The Quinnipiac survey that showed voters may not be motivated by the trial also found that 46% of voters believe Trump did something illegal — another 27% believe he did something unethical but not illegal.

Those responses are in stark contrast to the GOP officials, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, who have slammed the trial as a sham.

Trump's reaction will loom over the verdict.

Trump has never been one to take setbacks lightly. He's under a gag order that does not allow him to criticize witnesses, the jury, or Merchan's daughter. Once the verdict is in, Trump can unleash whatever criticism he desires.

It's not hard to imagine that in responding to a potential guilty verdict Trump lashes out in a way that causes him more problems. His attacks on judges have historically triggered some of the rare instances when Republicans speak out more broadly against him. It was then-Speaker Paul Ryan who called Trump's suggestion that a federal judge couldn't fairly adjudicate a case because of his Mexican heritage the "textbook definition" of racism.

But Trump has constantly been able to count on almost all of his fellow Republicans. The FBI's decision to search Mar-a-Lago marked another point of vulnerability for Trump. Almost immediately, top GOP officials rallied to his side.

Then-House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy proclaimed that the Justice Department had reached an "intolerable state of weaponized politicization." Even former Vice President Mike Pence, who had been harshly critical of Trump, expressed concern about the FBI's search of Mar-a-Lago.

The repeated shows of unity in the face of a new Trump indictment became so common that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis later complained that they "distorted the primary."

The easiest prediction is that Trump's verdict will likely spawn a wave of donations. According to a Politico analysis, Trump's legal woes are among his most effective fundraising appeals. Trump had one of his best fundraising days since launching his presidential campaign on March 22 when the former president warned his followers that New York Attorney General Tish James might try to seize his assets in connection with a civil fraud verdict.

During the Manhattan criminal trial, Trump has sent repeated fundraising appeals, including when Justice Juan Merchan found Trump in contempt for violating his gag order.

There are obvious costs to such efforts. Trump has relied on his network of political groups to help pay his legal bills. President Joe Biden mounted a significant early cash advantage. While other parts of Trump's orbit have been forced to come to the aid of Save America, the main outfit that has paid Trump's legal fees. According to its most recent filing, the leadership PAC owes over $1.1 million to Trump's lawyers. If the former president is found guilty, his almost certain appeal would likely further draw on this fund for support.

Still, there may never be another day in American history like the one about to unfold.

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