After Trump sought challengers to Laurel Lee, a conservative endorsement battle rages

With nearly three months until the primary election, the endorsement battle is already building in the U.S. House District 15 Republican race.

First-term incumbent Rep. Laurel Lee, R-Brandon, faces two Republican challengers, James Judge of Dade City and Jennifer Barbosa of Plant City. While 94.5% of U.S. House incumbents won re-election in 2022, according to Open Secrets, the dynamics of the District 15 election are unusual this year.

Lee, a former Florida Secretary of State, was the only member of Florida’s Republican House delegation to endorse Gov. Ron DeSantis during his ill-fated campaign for president. Lee issued an endorsement for former President Donald Trump, now the presumptive nominee, soon after DeSantis suspended his campaign in late January.

But Trump seemingly took offense at Lee’s earlier support for DeSantis. In March, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform: “Any great MAGA Republicans looking to run against Laurel Lee in Florida’s 15th Congressional District? IF SO, PLEASE STEP FORWARD!”

MAGA refers to Trump’s 2016 campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again.”

Judge, who had filed to challenge another Republican incumbent, Rep. Gus Bilirakis of New Port Richey, shifted his candidacy from District 12 to District 15 in April. He has portrayed himself as a Trumpian candidate answering the call of the former president, still the dominant figure in the Republican Party.

Challenger draws support

Judge has already collected endorsements from a range of conservative figures. Roger Stone, a Trump associate and a brash political operative, issued his support, declaring that Judge is “on board with the MAGA agenda.”

Two former House members have also endorsed Judge: Steve King, who represented Iowa from 2003 to 2011, and Ted Yoho, who served in Florida’s District 3 from 2013 to 2021.

“James is a committed Constitutional conservative who understands the forces that seek to take down our America,” King said in an endorsement statement.

King, among the most conservative members of Congress, lost a primary election in 2020 after Republican leaders criticized comments he made in an interview, questioning why the terms “white nationalist” and “white supremacist” are considered offensive.

Yoho, a former Tea Party Caucus member, declined to seek re-election in 2020, citing his commitment to term limits.

Judge is also touting endorsements from the Republican Liberty Caucus, a national organization that says its goal is “to return the Republican Party to its ideological roots of limited government, free enterprise, and personal liberty and responsibility.”

Last week, Judge announced an endorsement from Lake Wales Mayor Jack Hilligoss, who is pastor at HighPoint Church. Though Lake Wales is not in District 15, Hilligoss wrote that Judge “is a man of principle and is driven by a Biblical worldview.”

Born To Ride for 45, a national motorcycle club that lists 2,300 members on its private Facebook page, has also endorsed Judge.

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Lee received two prominent Republican endorsements last week, as Florida’s two U.S. senators, Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, expressed their backing.

“Since being elected to Congress, Laurel Lee has shown that she is a powerful conservative voice and an effective advocate for families and the people of Florida,” Rubio said in a statement. “Day in and day out in Washington, she’s working to hold those who have failed Floridians accountable and pushing for Republican policies to ensure the safety of our country. I’m proud to call her a partner in Congress and endorse her re-election campaign.”

Scott, who is running for re-election this year, called Lee “a great conservative partner in Washington.”

Scott, then Florida’s governor, appointed Lee in 2013 as a Circuit Court Judge in Hillsborough County. Before that, Lee served as a federal prosecutor for the United States Attorney’s Office in the Middle District of Florida, based in Tampa.

“I am honored to have earned the support of our Republican Florida Senators Rick Scott and Marco Rubio,” Lee said in a news release. “They are true conservative warriors for Florida in Washington, and it has been an honor to fight alongside them to protect our state and country from the failures of the Biden administration.”

Further endorsements from elected officials might be coming.

“Endorsement announcements and the schedule we will roll them out, like with all campaigns, are a key part of our political strategy,” Grace Bartinski, a campaign spokesperson, said by email.

Do endorsements matter?

Susan MacManus, a professor emerita of political science at the University of South Florida, questioned how much impact endorsements might have in the race. She said endorsements from Trump buoyed two candidates in Tuesday’s primary elections in other states, but the losing candidates lacked Lee’s credentials, she noted.

“Advertising is going to mean more than endorsements, perhaps, in that race,” MacManus said. “Who's got the most compelling (ads), and where do they advertise, social media versus traditional media? A lot of different considerations there.”

She added that turnout rates are generally much lower in primary elections than in general elections.

“Primaries are the most unpredictable of races for a lot of different reasons,” MacManus said. “It's such a smaller universe of people that actually vote, it makes it really hard to calculate. And that's why these personal interactions are critical.”

As of Tuesday, Lee had reported more than $992,000 in campaign contributions. That total includes $330,000 from political committees, among them the Republican Mainstreet Partnership, the House Conservatives Fund; and PACs associated with DeSantis; Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio; Rep. Steve Scalise, R-Louisiana; and DeSantis.

Lee’s corporate donors include Publix Super Markets, the Mosaic Company and Koch Industries.

Judge has reported nearly $68,000 in campaign contributions. His financial supporters include Steve Maxwell, co-founder and national chairman of Citizens Defending Freedom, a conservative group based in Polk County.

As of Tuesday, Judge had not reported any donations from party or political committees. Barbosa, who filed to run in April, has not yet reported any campaign contributions.

The primary election will take place Aug. 20.

Gary White can be reached at gary.white@theledger.com or 863-802-7518. Follow on X @garywhite13.

This article originally appeared on The Ledger: Endorsement battle rages in Laurel Lee's US House Republican primary