Trump shows ‘formidable lead’ over Biden among Florida voters, FAU poll says

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TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — Former President Donald Trump continues to hold a strong lead over President Joe Biden in the state of Florida, according to a poll published Thursday by Florida Atlantic University.

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The poll, which was conducted by the FAU Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab and Mainstreet Research, showed that 50% of Florida’s registered voters supported Trump while Joe Biden had 42% of the vote. The remaining 8% preferred alternate candidates.

Even though this was still a strong lead for the former president, Biden appeared to have closed the gap from a previous poll by two percentage points. In a November 2023 poll, Trump had 49% of voter support while Biden had 39%.

“Despite this very marginal improvement for Biden, it seems that Florida is going to be a safe state for Trump in this election cycle,” said Dr. Dukhong Kim, associate professor of political science at FAU.

The poll showed that women leaned more toward Biden, with him getting 46% of female voter support. Fifty-four percent of male voters expressed their support for Trump.

As for generational divides, Biden appealed more to older votes while Trump had stronger support among middle-aged voters. Younger voters showed more openness to third-party candidates.

According to the poll, Trump had stronger retention from his 2020 voters and had more support from Republicans and independent voters. Biden, however, had more of an appeal to Black voters than Hispanics and white voters who did not attend college.

“If Biden wants to increase his chance of winning in Florida, he has to improve his campaign activities with the traditional Democratic party support base of women, Black, Hispanic, and younger cohorts,” Kim said.

Marijuana legalization

The FAU poll also showed that voters were split on Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational marijuana for people 21 and older.

The results showed 47% of voters supported the measure while 35% were against it, with the remaining 18% staying undecided. Younger voters showed more support for the amendment than younger voters by a large margin.

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There was also an apparent difference between Republicans and Democrats. Fifty-eight percent of Democrats supported marijuana legalization while only 39% of Republicans showed support.

Along racial lines, 55% of Black voters supported legalizing marijuana while 50% of white voters also supported the amendment. However, only 30% of Hispanics voiced support for the ballot initiative

Abortion Rights

The poll also asked voters about ballot initiative for Amendment 4, which would allow women to seek abortions up to 24 or before fetal viability.

Forty-nine percent of the respondents said they supported the Amendment while 19% were in opposition. The remaining 32% were undecided.

Out of the women who were surveyed in the poll, 49% supported expanding abortion rights, 12 opposed Amendment 4, and 39 were undecided.

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For a ballot initiative to pass in the state of Florida, it must have 60% of the vote.

“Since almost a third of respondents do not know how they would vote if faced with the ballot initiative, this means that it could go either way come November,” said Dr. Luzmarina Garcia, assistant professor of political science at FAU.

To read more about the poll’s findings, click here.

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