Trump leads in five swing states as Biden support collapses among young, black and Latino voters
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Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in five battleground states that could decide the US election, as young, black and Latino voters desert the Democrats.
A new poll shows Mr Trump ahead of the US president in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania, while Mr Biden leads in Wisconsin.
The states are among the battleground areas that are likely to decide a close election, with national polls putting the two men almost neck-and-neck less than six months before polling day on Nov 5.
The poll, conducted by Siena College for The New York Times, suggests Mr Biden is struggling to retain voters who supported him at the last election. All six of the states surveyed voted for him in 2020.
The demographic groups where support for the Democrats is falling include young liberals and American Muslims, who are thought to have been discouraged by Mr Biden’s support for Israel during the war in Gaza.
Some Latino voters, who historically skew towards the Democrats, are also abandoning Mr Biden’s campaign in favour of Mr Trump’s.
The results of the poll show Mr Trump is leading by 10 points in Georgia – the closest state in the 2020 election, where Mr Biden won by just 0.2 percentage points.
Mr Trump’s lead comes despite his criminal trial in New York, where he is fighting charges that he falsified business records to disguise a “hush money” payment to Stormy Daniels, an adult actress.
On Saturday, The Telegraph’s own poll of the US swing states found that support for Mr Trump in several battlegrounds would increase if he was found guilty.
Monday’s Siena poll also shows a challenge for the Republican nominee on the issue of abortion, where voters are more aligned with the Democrat position of providing greater access to terminations for pregnant women.
Across the six states polled, almost two thirds of respondents said that abortion should be always or mostly legal, including 44 per cent of Republicans.
Facing calls from key figures in his own party to take a hardline stance on abortion, Mr Trump has defended the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the Roe v. Wade ruling in 2022, and said the rules on abortions should be decided by individual states.
Democrats are thought to be concerned about the impact of the war in Gaza on Mr Biden’s ratings, after weeks of demonstrations against the Israeli government from young liberal voters and Muslim Americans.
Mr Biden has paused some weapons shipments to Israel, but insists that the White House’s support for Israeli security is “iron clad”. He is facing opposition to that stance from some Americans who say the humanitarian cost of the war has been too high.
The latest poll found that about 13 per cent of 2020 Biden voters say they do not intend to support him again because of his foreign policy in the Middle East.
Strategists in both main parties previously told Axios, a news website, that they expect the result of the presidential election to be decided by about six per cent of voters in six states.
Mr Trump celebrated the results of the poll at his trial on Monday morning.
Speaking outside the Manhattan courthouse, he said: “The New York Times just came out with a poll that shows us leading everywhere by a lot.
“This is a cover story, and I think you all will find it very interesting. I’m sure you’ve all read it. Leading in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada. Nevada we’re leading actually by 12 points, which is generally a Democratic state.”
