Timing of thunderstorms uncertain Monday, afternoon storms could turn severe on Tuesday

Rain falls over Whitefish Bay and northern suburbs along the lake to Milwaukee on Wednesday, July 5, 2023.
Rain falls over Whitefish Bay and northern suburbs along the lake to Milwaukee on Wednesday, July 5, 2023.

Rain and thunderstorms will move into Wisconsin Monday, but the timing is uncertain. A separate round of storms on Tuesday is more likely to hit in the late afternoon and could turn severe, according to the National Weather Service.

Storms developing in the Central Plains will move toward Wisconsin overnight Sunday. Those won't bring any strong, severe weather but will influence how storms develop on Monday, explained NWS meteorologist Andrew Quigley.

On Monday, showers and storms look most likely in the early- to mid-afternoon hours, with chances decreasing in the evening and closer to midnight.

"While that's the forecast for right now, we could see some timing differences," Quigley said. "That's all going to come down to how the overnight showers and thunderstorms that come across tonight evolve and how quickly they get out of here tomorrow."

Tuesday will bring a separate round of storms to southern Wisconsin. There's more certainty that those will come in the late afternoon and evening. NWS is also monitoring the potential for severe weather with those storms.

"Large hail, damaging winds on Tuesday afternoon would be the highest hazards, though there could be some isolated spin-up, tornado potential as well with the Tuesday activity," Quigley said.

Depending on how the storms develop Monday, there could also be some potential for large hail and wind damage. Because of that uncertainty, Quigley recommended checking the NWS or local weather broadcasts for updates.

"As we go into these potential severe weather days, it's important to just stay aware, but don't be scared," Quigley said. "Understand what's on the table and what's possible, but certainly no reason to be scared if you're prepared and in tune with what's going on."

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This spring has been the third-rainiest on record, according to NWS data dating back to the 1870s. It could even surpass that, depending on how much precipitation falls in the last couple weeks of this month.

This spring's rain totals stand in stark contrast to the past few years, which experienced prolonged drought conditions.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: What to know about the timing of Monday, Tuesday storms in Wisconsin