I was sure Kenny Payne was a sure thing for Louisville. How did it all go so wrong?

I have been wrong before, but never as wrong as I was about Kenny Payne.

I was sure he was the perfect fit. When Louisville fired basketball coach Chris Mack in January of 2022, I quickly wrote there was no better choice for U of L than Payne, the former Cardinals forward who served as John Calipari’s trusted assistant before moving on to the NBA. I was wrong. Dead wrong.

Louisville parted ways with the 57-year-old Payne on Wednesday after two disastrous seasons — 4-28 in his 2022-23 debut and 8-24 this season, which ended with the Cards’ 94-85 loss to North Carolina State in the ACC Tournament on Tuesday in Washington, D.C.

You will not meet a nicer human than Kenny Payne. After nearly two decades as an assistant coach, he had paid his dues. To be sure, he didn’t inherit a great situation.

Still, there is no excuse for a program with so much support and with so much tradition as Louisville basketball to win 12 games over two seasons.

How did it all go so terribly wrong? Theories abound. Having never been a head coach, Payne was too inexperienced. He was too stubborn. He didn’t hire the right staff. He didn’t listen to the right advice. He didn’t put enough emphasis on NIL or didn’t receive enough NIL support. His old-school approach didn’t mesh with today’s players. Take your pick.

To be honest, Louisville was a hard watch these past two seasons. But when I did tune in to take in the Cardinals, I was struck by their shocking lack of fundamentals. Bad passes. Ill-advised shots. Defensive breakdowns. In Tuesday’s loss to the Wolfpack, the Cards committed 16 turnovers. Not once, but twice they were called for simple over-and-back violations.

That’s the kind of play that causes you to lose to the likes of Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Bellarmine, Chattanooga, Lipscomb, Wright State and a DePaul team that is 3-28 this season. It’s the kind of play that has the coach looking for another job after only two seasons.

It also continues a string of former Calipari assistants who have struggled as head coaches. The Kentucky coach is a force of nature. His brand and success have proven difficult to duplicate.

So where does Louisville turn now? It is still a marquee job in a basketball-crazed state in a metropolitan city with a fan base that will pack a first-class facility to support a winner.

Baylor’s Scott Drew is the fever dream. But would the 53-year-old coach leave the national championship program he has built in Waco? In January, the school opened a new $212 million arena and basketball facility. I doubt Drew departs.

Mick Cronin’s name among possibilities makes sense. The current UCLA coach was a Louisville assistant under Rick Pitino. He was the head coach at Cincinnati for 13 seasons before heading to Los Angeles. On the one hand, with the Bruins slipping to 15-16 this season, Cronin might be ready to return to this part of the country. On the other hand, his contract includes a substantial buyout.

Others? Florida Atlantic’s Dusty May is believed to be high on Ohio State’s list. Oklahoma’s Porter Moser was rumored to be headed to DePaul before releasing a statement he was happy in Norman. Arkansas has been a major disappointment this season, but Eric Musselman has an impressive NCAA Tournament track record and a history of job-hopping.

One thing is for certain: After the Payne debacle, Louisville needs a coach with significant head coaching experience, who can rally a demoralized Cardinal Nation, who can navigate the current landscape — NIL is not going away — and who can get Louisville back to being Louisville. The sooner the better.

As former Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim put it on the ACC Network telecast Tuesday, “You gotta win at Louisville.”

I was convinced Kenny Payne would be a winner there. Sadly, I couldn’t have been more wrong.

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