Will this summer be the hottest on record? Here’s what Northern California can expect

Summertime is about to seep into Northern California — and you can already feel it.

Warm temperatures are popping up in the region, with inland areas reaching highs in the 90s.

Summer officially starts on Thursday, June 20. How much warmer will it get during the season?

Here are some early predictions for what residents in the northern part of the state can expect.

Could 2024 be the hottest summer on record?

This summer could bring the hottest temperatures in recorded history, according to the Farmers’ Almanac.

The almanac has been publishing long-range weather predictions for the United States and gardening information since 1818.

Its prediction isn’t far off base, said Paul Ullrich, professor of regional and global climate modeling at UC Davis.

“I also expect that this summer will be probably the hottest on record,” said Ullrich, who is also the climate adaptation leader at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. “If it’s not one of the hottest on record, it’s definitely going to be in the top five.”

Ullrich said there has been an upward trend in temperatures over the past 15 years.

Additionally, the Pacific Ocean is transitioning out of an El Niño state into a more neutral state.

El Niño refers to the warming of the ocean surface. When the ocean’s surface cools and dips below average, the climate pattern is called La Niña.

Typically, during these neutral states, Ullrich said, there’s a push towards warmer inland temperatures, particularly in Northern California.

Farmer’s Almanac predicts hot, dry weather for California?

For its 2024 summer outlook, the almanac states that California will see hot and dry conditions.

The almanac forecasts that it will likely be “warm, hot, and muggy” for most of the country. In the Northwest region, as “more seasonable summer temperatures are expected,” it said.

“The Southwest will see hot, dry conditions for most of the summer,” the almanac said. “The Pacific Northwest will also be dry, but temperatures won’t be as extreme.”

Above-normal temperatures forecast for summer

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center publishes three-month weather outlooks, forecasting seasonal temperature and precipitation.

On April 18, the center issued its predictions for June, July and August.

During these months, most of California — including the entire Northern California region — has a 40% to 50% chance of leaning above normal temperatures, the center predicted.

There’s a 33% to $40% chance that temperatures in parts of the Central Coast and Southern California will lean above normal.

There are equal chances of seasonal precipitation being above or below normal, the center said.

For July, August and September, the center’s predictions remain fairly the same with temperatures throughout California expected to lean above normal.

Will Northern California see heat waves?

The Northern California region is no stranger to heat waves, and residents should likely expect them this summer.

“There’s going to be an enhanced risk of heat waves this year, again, related to transitioning out of that El Niño state,” Ullrich said about the northern area of the state.

Typically in a neutral state, there is a wavier mid-latitudinal jet stream, he said.

Jet streams blow bands of wind around the Earth, according to Yale, and the “waviness” of its movement can dramatically affect weather in mid-latitude regions, including Northern California.

“Under those conditions, there’s more opportunity for these high-pressure heat domes to set up, which can then trigger heat wave events,” Ullrich said.

It’s hard to say how many heat waves Northern California can expect and how high temperatures will get.

“When it comes to seasonal predictions, all we can really talk about is whether or not our current indicators are enhancing the probability of something occurring or decreasing the probability,” Ullrich said. “We’re still beholden to the chaotic nature of weather.”

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