What’s in store for Bradenton’s hurricane season? ‘Extraordinary’ forecast, experts say

Bradenton and Manatee County should be prepared for an “extraordinary” hurricane season in 2024, weather experts say.

On Thursday, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shared its predictions for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

With a hurricane-friendly La Niña weather pattern expected to form this summer and record-warm ocean waters, forecasters predict the busiest Atlantic hurricane season ever.

The forecast calls for 17 to 25 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes that are Category 3 of higher.

Conditions will also be right to see more of the rapidly intensifying storms that have become common in recent years.

From national weather experts to local emergency managers, the message for residents is to start preparing now.

“This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways based on our data and models,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said at a press conference in Washington D.C. Thursday.

Manatee County prepares for busy hurricane season

“Make your emergency plans. Beef up your emergency kit,” said Matthew Myers, Manatee County’s chief of Emergency Management.

Myers served as deputy chief before his recent promotion to the top role. He has responded to multiple hurricanes, including Ian and Idalia, since he started at the county in 2017 as an emergency management coordinator.

Myers said residents should make sure they are signed up for Alert Manatee, the county’s emergency notification system.

“It keeps you updated before, during and after the storm,” Myers said.

He also stressed the importance of paying attention to local news as hurricanes approach to anticipate local impacts — even for hurricanes that look far away on the map.

“Be knowledgeable about what’s happening, and watch the weather daily to make sure,” Myers said. “Given how big these storms are getting, you’re going to feel the effects far outside of where the storm makes landfall.”

He pointed to the coastal flooding that Hurricane Idalia brought to the Bradenton area last year despite the storm’s distance from shore.

Myers said the prediction for a very active season doesn’t change how the county prepares.

“We are always preparing, regardless of what the season predictions are,” Myers said.

In April, Myers said emergency staff had its annual hurricane simulation.

“We kind of do a mock hurricane. We’re testing our system and looking at any issues that we can foresee,” Myers said.

Emergency staff have taken part in training sessions and hosting hurricane awareness events.

Myers said other efforts have focused on speeding up emergency response times and expanding resources for more remote areas of the county that have been impacted by recent storms, like Rubonia and Myakka City.

“We’re shoring up our response for any kind of flood-prone area to be able to get to them faster,” Myers said.

Get ready for hurricane season in Manatee County

• Know your evacuation zone

• Prepare your emergency kit

• Watch for sandbags to become available as needed

• Watch for emergency shelters to open as needed

• Sign up for Alert Manatee emergency alerts

Know the dangers of hurricanes, experts say

Hurricanes can be dangerous regardless of their category, and impacts can reach far outside of the cone that forecasts a storm’s possible path, government officials stressed at Thursday’s press conference.

“Remember it’s about the impacts, not the category,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service.

This year, the National Hurricane Center will provide a new experimental hurricane tracker that highlights the widespread hazards outside of the traditional cone.

“Remember, the cone itself is a cone of error,” Graham said. “It’s where we think the center of the storm is going to be two-thirds of the time. What about the other one-third? Outside of the cone.”

Officials also reiterated that many of the worst dangers happen after the storm has passed.

Hurricane Ian in 2022 was responsible for at least 156 deaths, including five in Manatee County. Many of them occurred in the days after the storm.

Graham said the biggest threat is water, which is responsible for about 90% of hurricane-related fatalities.

Are busy hurricane seasons the new normal?

The 2024 season is forecast to be extra busy because of a unique mix of factors, so it’s not necessarily the new normal.

“You have warm energy in the oceans. You have an active African Monsoon. We don’t expect a whole lot of shear. It takes all these ingredients to come up with a forecast like this,” NWS’s Graham said Thursday.

Research suggests that human-caused climate change is creating conditions that will allow future hurricanes to intensify faster and become stronger than before. Throughout the rest of this century, climate change is also expected to fuel an increase in hurricane rainfall amounts and storm surge threats.

But while storm intensity is expected to increase, the average number of hurricanes won’t necessarily increase. In fact, it could go down, according to NOAA. But the stronger storms could be more devastating.

With storms that strengthen faster, government officials say it’s increasingly important for people to pay close attention to the weather as hurricanes approach.

“With intensifying storms, we may have less time to warn communities,” said Erik Hooks, deputy administrator of FEMA, at Thursday’s conference.