Spain Asks ‘What Just Happened?’ After Prime Minister’s Timeout

Rodrigo Orihuela
·4 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Electoral gambit, the pressures of office or a sincere show of love for his wife. Though Spaniards still can’t agree on what was behind their prime minister’s recent wobble, they’re beginning to unite around the idea that this time, he might have pushed his luck too far.

Most Read from Bloomberg

When Pedro Sanchez published an open letter on Wednesday excoriating attacks on his family and saying he would take five days off to consider whether to stay in the job, he was expected to get some sympathy from the public, according to an official with knowledge of his thinking.

Sanchez took the decision to expose his human side, understanding he’s too often been seen as aloof, the official said, asking not to be named discussing private matters. Yet as the days wore on, that sympathy started to fade.

Many Spaniards grew frustrated over a wait during which the country didn’t know whether it was heading for fresh elections, for a new leader nominated by Sanchez’s Socialist group or perhaps some other surprise from a politician who’s made a career out of shock moves that wrong-foot his opponents.

In the end, he offered nothing new to justify the extraordinary timeout.

“To be honest, it was all quite ridiculous” said Federico Santi, an analyst at Eurasia Group. “It’s hard to know at this time what it means, the whole thing was strange.”

Now, both Sanchez’s critics and those who’ve admired the high-wire acts that have kept him in office for almost six years are starting to suspect that this might not have been yet another calculated move.

One theory had been that Sanchez was seeking to rally support from Socialist voters ahead of a crucial regional election in Catalonia on May 12, when the party is expected to beat its separatist rivals, albeit without securing an outright majority. Socialist lawmakers and aides who were in parliament Monday broke out in loud cheers when their leader announced he would stay.

In an interview Monday night the premier signaled there may have been more to his actions than the exercise of an angry impulse. Speaking to state television he said “I was also seeking — indirectly, because I didn’t think about it — a response from citizens.”

Yet if he aimed to bolster support, analysts say, it’s unlikely to have worked.

“There is no winner,” said Jaime Miquel, a pollster who’s worked for the prime minister’s office. “This isn’t going to create a better electoral position for the Socialist party.”

In his announcement, Sanchez said he wants to lead a “regeneration” of Spain’s democracy, but offered scant detail on what that might mean. He also sought to stress that he and his wife had concluded that they can withstand unfair attacks that prompted last week’s letter. He did not address the substance of the allegations that a union with far-right links had the previous week made against her, which had prompted a legal investigation.

For all the public celebration of his decision from Socialist officials, behind the scenes party members were also critical of Sanchez’s moves, which seemed to disregard normal political logic — he received widespread support only to leave his backers clueless for days.

A columnist in the pro-government newspaper El Pais said Sanchez had “ghosted” Spain. “Nobody knows anything,” said its lead story ahead of the announcement on Monday.

Over the course of his long hiatus, the speculation among Spain’s political class shifted noticeably. On Thursday, most people who spoke in private were convinced that there would be a political rationale behind his move that would seek to strengthen his hand. After five days of silence, the consensus was that he really was going to quit.

When Sanchez finally announced his decision, there was a sense that there hadn’t, in fact, been an attempt to manipulate voters and the media, but something altogether stranger.

“Everybody was amazed by the decision on Wednesday, and everybody was expecting a different type of announcement today,” said Jose Pablo Ferrandiz of pollster Ipsos, speaking Monday.

--With assistance from Clara Hernanz Lizarraga.

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.