It’s a simple choice: Sunak or Starmer
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It’s on. On Wednesday, Rishi Sunak confounded expectations in Westminster that he would hang on until the autumn, and called a general election for July 4. For the leader of a party some 20 points behind in the polls, he might have hoped for a more auspicious start to the campaign than an unseasonal downpour and protesters blaring out the Blairite anthem Things Can Only Get Better. But he will have many more opportunities to repeat his central message: that voters must choose between whether to “build on the future you’ve made or risk going back to square one” under a Labour Party that has no plan for Britain.
The day had begun with much sunnier economic news. Inflation had fallen to its lowest rate in almost three years, allowing Mr Sunak to claim that not only had he achieved his pledge to halve price rises, but to have brought them almost back to normal. Earlier this month, GDP figures showed robust growth, with the economy now definitively out of recession. The Prime Minister insists that it has turned a corner and that brighter days lie ahead.
But he also intimated in his speech outside No 10 that this is the moment of maximum danger for the country, when the recovery has begun but could be crushed by an untrustworthy Labour government at a moment of enormous international uncertainty. History suggests that voters are more likely to shift Left when they feel that it is not a risky choice. While some pundits have questioned the wisdom of holding an election now, when the economic picture could well be brighter later in the year, there is strong logic to going early.
Indeed, Mr Sunak evidently felt that he had a window of opportunity that he could not afford to miss. Some in his party will think he has taken a gamble too far, and that nothing now can counteract Sir Keir Starmer’s simple mantra that it is “time for change”. But that ignores the deep scepticism that much of the electorate feels towards the Labour leader, whose plans – such that they exist – have not yet been exposed to the full scrutiny of a general election campaign.
Every day seems to bring further concerning signs of what a Labour government would bring. This week, the shadow foreign secretary David Lammy kowtowed to the International Criminal Court, in a betrayal of one of Britain’s closest allies, Israel. Sir Keir has refused to match the Government’s military spending plans, evidence of dangerous complacency at a time of global danger.
His party still does not seem to have lost its obsession for radical gender ideology or general wokery. Sir Keir has the instincts of an Islington human rights lawyer, despite his efforts to develop a more demotic appeal. His pledge to attack private schools is pure class envy.
The unarguable truth facing voters is that they face a straight choice between Sir Keir and Mr Sunak. It is similarly unarguable that a Labour government might well bring change, but it will not be of the good kind. Labour would tax more, regulate more, be weaker in defence of the national interest and be far more relaxed about mass migration and the excesses of green ideologues. The Tories can hardly claim that their own record is unblemished in any of these areas. But the party must now pull together behind the Prime Minister and hammer home the message that the situation will be much worse if Sir Keir enters No 10.
After 14 years in power, some Conservative voters will be tempted to punish their party, voting for Reform UK or staying at home. That has been their behaviour in recent by-elections, where Labour has struggled to increase its number of votes but has secured victory regardless because Tories have not turned out. At a general election, that would be a terrible mistake. It would guarantee that Britain would wake up on July 5 to one of the most Left-wing governments in decades, one that believes it has a mandate to impose permanent and damaging change on the country.
They should channel their energies instead into demanding of Mr Sunak what would be different if the Conservatives are returned to power. The Prime Minister has stabilised the economy since Liz Truss’s premiership, but he has often left voters guessing on what he would do with another term in office, beyond somewhat technical promises like reforming A-levels.
On Wednesday, he focused on economic stability, calling it the “bedrock of any success”. He now needs to show how he will build on that bedrock, crafting an unashamedly pro-prosperity agenda, focused on backing middle-class aspiration and increasing economic dynamism, while freeing people from the burden of an over-mighty and incompetent state. He has begun carving out dividing lines with Labour, but voters must be left in no doubt that there is clear blue water in policy terms between Mr Sunak and Sir Keir.
Above all, the Tories need to offer a conservative message of hope, justified by a solid and inspiring policy platform, to lift the spirits of voters who have come to think that Britain is on its last legs. That is certainly what this newspaper will be asking of the party. At its heart, this election comes down to a choice between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer, and our view is that Mr Sunak is by far the better option for Britain.
The Prime Minister has bravely defied the received wisdom in Westminster on the timing of the general election. He must show similar courage in elucidating a programme for five more years of Conservative government.
