Can the shorthanded (and tired) KU Jayhawks beat Gonzaga? Prediction & betting odds

Shreyas Laddha
·3 min read

The No. 4-seeded Kansas men’s basketball team will face No. 5 Gonzaga in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday.

The Jayhawks (23-10) escaped with a first round win over Samford on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs dominated McNeese State.

Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.

No. 4 seed Kansas vs. No. 5 Gonzaga

When/where: 2:15 p.m. Central, Delta Center

TV/Streaming: CBS

Opponent’s record: 26-7

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 12

Betting line: Gonzaga is a 4.5-point favorite

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.

Gonzaga Team Strengths

  • Quality offense: The Bulldogs rank No. 7 in effective field goal percentage (56.8%). Meanwhile, Kansas ranks No. in 48 the same category.

  • Cautious with the ball: Gonzaga ranks No. 19 in turnover percentage (14.1)

  • Efficient inside the arc: The Bulldogs rank No. 7 in 2-point percentage (58.1%)

  • Hit the offensive glass hard: Gonzaga ranks No. 51 in offensive rebounding percentage (33.4)

Gonzaga Team Weaknesses

  • Issues defending the long ball: Gonzaga ranks No. 159 in opponent 3-point percentage (33.6%)

  • Little depth: The Bulldogs rank No. 343 in bench-minutes percentage (21.5).

  • Struggle to draw fouls: Gonzaga ranks No. 224 in foul rate (31.4%)

  • Don’t take many 3s: Like Kansas, the Bulldogs don’t shoot a lot of 3-pointers, ranking No. 310 in 3-point rate.

Gonzaga Name to Know

6–foot-9 redshirt junior forward Graham Ike (No. 13)

Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Graham Ike (13) drives against McNeese State forward Christian Shumate (24) during the first half of an NCAA Tournament game at Vivint Smart Home Arena-Delta Center on March 21, 2024.
Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Graham Ike (13) drives against McNeese State forward Christian Shumate (24) during the first half of an NCAA Tournament game at Vivint Smart Home Arena-Delta Center on March 21, 2024.

+ Leading scorer (16.5 ppg)

+ Good rebounder (7.2 rebounds per game)

+ 10-straight games with double-digit points

+ Solid big-man free throw shooter (78%)

- Turnover prone (1.6 turnovers per game)

- Not much of a passer (1 APG)

- Not a stretch-5 (15 3-point attempts this season)

Tale of the Tape

The duo of Ike and Ryan Nembhard is incredibly difficult to stop in the pick-and-roll — and otherwise.

Nembhard is capable of forcing help and drawing multiple defenders. In a game against Saint Mary’s, he did just that and dished a behind-the-back bounce pass to Ike for an easy bucket.

For the Jayhawks, ensuring this duo doesn’t get going is pivotal. That means the Jayhawks need to fight through screens, communicate in defending their pick-and-rolls and pack the paint against Ike.

Game prediction

In a lot of ways, these teams mirror each other. And that’s what makes the matchup so fascinating.

For the Jayhawks, the keys will be to lock down the paint and make at least a handful of 3-pointers against a Gonzaga team that struggles to defend the arc.

The biggest question coming into this game is how tired Kansas will be after the short turnaround. I think the tired legs will play a factor in KU’s shooting, which already isn’t great.

I like the Zags in this one — to win and cover.

Gonzaga 73, Kansas 67

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Gonzaga (-4.5)

Shreyas’ season record: 24-7

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 15-16

KU player to watch: Nick Timberlake

After a spectacular outing on Thursday, in which Nick Timberlake dropped 19 points against Samford, KU hopes he can replicate that vs. the Bulldogs.

Timberlake played a pivotal role for the Jayhawks vs. Samford, including a clutch 3-pointer and making free throws following a controversial foul call.

That’s the version of Timberlake the Jayhawks need to beat Gonzaga, especially without leading scorer Kevin McCullar.

If he can step up again, they’ll have a shot.