‘If you see an Atacm coming, all you can do is duck’
Long-range missiles from the West will allow Ukraine to shape the war “in much stronger ways”, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the head of Britain’s Armed Forces, has said.
For almost a year, the British Storm Shadow and its French twin, Scalp-EG, have been the favoured weapon for a campaign of Ukrainian deep strikes.
When the air-launched cruise missiles started arriving on the battlefield in May 2023, Kyiv unlocked a whole new set of Russian targets deep behind enemy lines.
Positions including those of warships, bridges and ammunition dumps that were once considered safely out of reach of Ukrainian fire were suddenly vulnerable.
But like after the introduction of any new hi-tech weapon, the systems slowly become less effective as Ukrainian stockpiles dwindle and Russia adapts its tactics.
Such donations of the hi-tech, long-range weapons desired by Kyiv were once left as the sole responsibility of the British and French.
That is until the United States secretly shipped long-range versions of the Army Tactical Missile Systems (Atacms) with a range of 190 miles last week.
The Ukrainian military almost immediately used the system to strike an airfield in Crimea and a Russian troop position.
Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, had long sought the weapons system, which nearly doubles the striking distance of the existing mid-range, cluster munition Atacms already donated by Washington.
Russia’s foreign ministry spokesman said their arrival in Ukraine was proof that the US wanted to “ramp up Zelensky’s terrorist potential”.
Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, insisted the shipments were not deemed to be escalatory, as he announced the secretive deliveries.
But he also acknowledged that Atacms would not immediately change the course of war on their own.
“There is no silver bullet in this conflict,” he said.
“One capability is not going to be the ultimate solution; it is an amalgam of capabilities that come together and combine with the bravery and skill of Ukraine’s fighters that’s going to make the difference in this conflict.”
Atacms are a ground-launched ballistic missile fired from either the Himars or M270 multiple launch rocket systems.
‘It’s not an easy target’
Unlike a more conventional cruise missile (600mph), Atacms can accelerate to three times the speed of sound (2,300 MPH), making them more difficult for air defence systems to intercept. Their speed is the missile’s main strength.
Once launched, Russia’s web of radars and missile detection systems will be up almost instantly.
“But a ballistic missile you might see it coming but you’ve got about three minutes,” said Justin Crump, the chief executive of the strategic intelligence company Sibylline.
“It’s only in your engagement area for maybe 30 seconds, and you’ve got to fire something very fast back at it, not an easy target.”
He added: “You know once it’s been fired, it takes a while to work out exactly the missile’s trajectory and where it’s going to impact. Basically, all you can do is warn everyone to duck.”
This will put a significant strain on Russia’s air defence units.
“There’s nowhere safe. It’s not just an attack you need to be able to intercept within 60 miles of the front line, right in front of Russian tanks. Broadly, they had to protect 60 miles from the front line and behind that they were safer except from things like Storm Shadow, which they had warnings of launch indicators for,” Mr Crump said.
“Now there’s this unpredictability again, anywhere within say 190 miles from the front line could be targeted.”
It would take just 10 Atacms for Ukraine’s forces to cover the entire front line and some 155 miles behind it.
‘It’ll keep Moscow’s teeth gnashing’
Washington has not publicly announced how many of the ballistic missiles it has supplied to Ukraine, other than Mr Sullivan claiming it is a “significant” number.
“It’s not going to win the war on its own,” Mr Crump said.
“It’s all part of shaping the battlefield. But it’s an important part and it’ll keep adding to the gnashing of teeth we’ve been hearing from Moscow.”
But the ability to carry out mass strikes using Atacms, combined with drones and cruise missiles, will serve as a boost to Ukrainian forces.
While there is no indication that Ukraine will mount a similar attack, it was only the handful of ballistic missiles fired by Iran, out of some 300 munitions, that reached Israel.
“It’s mass and range really,” Mr Crump added.
“It’s using all of these tools together to confuse and overwhelm the enemy’s defences.
“What Ukraine really wants to do is have a strategic effect by making sure Russia don’t have any supplies, or can’t offload their equipment because railway offloading is destroyed, killing Russians assembled in a rest area, destroying a Russian headquarters so it can’t carrying on issuing orders down, therefore offensive momentum stalls.”
The ability to target Russian airfields, such as Saki and Dzhankoi, in occupied Crimea is seen as a vital usage of Atacms.
For months, Russia has enjoyed air superiority along the front lines because of Ukrainian shortages of surface-to-air missiles.
Moscow’s VKS air force has almost freely been able to drop glide bombs on targets – a tactic that was considered defining in the recent battle for Avdiivka, which was captured by Russian forces in February.
“Additionally, although the US seems to prefer that US supplied weapons be used on Ukrainian soil by their very presence these weapons also force the Russians to reconsider the safety of aircraft in other airbases,” Dr Sidharth Kaushal, of the Rusi think tank in London, said.
“If the VKS has to operate from air bases further back it limits the Russian air forces operational tempo and thus its overall effect on events on the ground.”
And while US president Joe Biden has insisted the Atacms are only for use on targets inside Ukraine’s sovereign territory, Russia will have to consider that Kyiv may one day breach that red line and potentially bring defences back from the front line to protect its mainland territory, only adding to the Russian headache.
