Repeal of Arizona's abortion bill will dominate Legislature for weeks. What's the holdup?

Abortion will be the dominant topic at the Arizona Legislature for weeks to come, thanks to Wednesday's action by state lawmakers.

House Republicans again rebuffed attempts to repeal a near-total abortion ban, while Democrats promised to keep trying. Three hours later, state senators on a bipartisan vote started the process to consider a repeal bill. Back in the House, a conservative lawmaker promised Republicans will soon unveil a plan to give voters a choice on abortion laws in November.

The state Supreme Court ruling that revived the 1864 law takes effect next Tuesday. But a ruling from a related court case stays enforcement for 45 days. That has led state GOP legislative leaders, as well as Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes, to argue the bill won't have any legal teeth until early June.

Meanwhile, legislative developments will happen on a once-a-week basis, given the House and Senate plan to meet only on Wednesdays while negotiations on the state budget continue.

How can Arizona abortion ban repeal advance in the state Senate?

When the Senate returns April 24, it could take action on Senate Bill 1734, introduced by Sen. Anna Hernandez, D-Phoenix. It's identical to the bill the House Democrats have been trying to get to a vote. That action, called a "second read," could advance the bill to a definitive vote in the following weeks.

Republican Sens. Shawnna Bolick of Phoenix and T.J. Shope of Coolidge joined with the 14 Senate Democrats to support Hernandez's bill. Sen. Ken Bennett, R-Prescott, voted with Bolick and Shope to oppose a motion to quash Hernandez's bill, but said he does not support the repeal.

He said the pro-abortion measure likely to appear on November’s ballot “goes too far.” Bennett added repealing the 1864 law, which would leave intact a law that bans abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, is “the best chance as pro-lifers to defeat” the proposed ballot measure.

AZ abortions: Women can now get abortions in Flagstaff despite looming statewide ban

Will enough House Republicans join Democrats to repeal Arizona abortion ban?

In the House, Speaker Ben Toma, R-Glendale, has maintained an issue as "heavy, as complicated, as emotionally and morally complex" as abortion takes time to work out.

Besides, there is no rush to address a repeal, he added. That's because any bill passed by the Legislature would not take effect until 90 days after the session adjourns for the year. Adjournment does not appear to be on the near horizon.

Despite those admonishments, the 29 House Democrats, as well as the one Republican who sided with them Wednesday, said they'll keep pushing for a repeal.

"We'll bring it back to the floor again," House Minority Leader Lupe Contreras, D-Avondale, said after Wednesday's failed attempts. "This is not going away."

Rep. Matt Gress was the only Republican supporting a repeal vote. Democrats had expected Rep. David Cook, R-Globe, to join with them, which would have given them the 31 votes needed to override Republican objections. But Cook said he felt the rules weren't followed and he refused to "roll the speaker," meaning provide the final vote to neutralize Toma's objections.

Republicans could do a late introduction of their own bill, or the speaker can grant permission for a committee to hear a bill, Cook said, adding: “If we start doing away with all the rules, then why even have them to begin with?”

Gress later praised the Senate for its initial support of a repeal bill and reiterated his belief that there are enough GOP votes to pass a repeal out of the House, maybe as soon as next week.

"Make no mistake about it, we will repeal," the Phoenix Republican said. "It will happen; it’s just a matter of time...The people of Arizona expect us to take action and we will.”

Looming election complicates GOP reprisals aimed at pro-repeal Republicans

Gress, Bolick and Shope are from swing districts where Democrats are working to score wins, which could potentially give the Democrats control of the Legislature.

GOP leaders, who want to keep control of the Legislature, will have to weigh how hard to press renegade members to get in line with abortion policy, for fear of them losing their elections. A single seat loss would evenly split the Legislature, so it's in leadership's interest to help these lawmakers keep their seats.

Rep. Alexander Kolodin, R-Scottsdale, announced that "tomorrow, or soon after," Republicans will present a plan that he said would give voters in November, choices at the ballot.

That would make good on Republican plans, revealed earlier this week, to counter the Arizona for Abortion Access initiative to enshrine abortion rights in the state Constitution.

For example, a GOP strategy document suggested lawmakers could refer up to three abortion measures that would dilute the dominance of the initiative, which already has gathered more than enough voter signatures to qualify for the Nov. 5 ballot.

Those referrals would have the advantage of going straight to the ballot without needing approval from Gov. Katie Hobbs, a supporter of abortion rights. However, finding the votes for such plans might be difficult given a number of Republican lawmakers support the 1864 law and have applauded the Supreme Court's ruling.

Hobbs, for her part, has said she would be open to calling a special legislative session to focus on the abortion issue, as long as there are the votes to pass a repeal bill. A special session would speed up the time until the bill could become law.

On Wednesday, she reiterated her intent to see the law repealed.

“I will continue to call on the Legislature to do its job and repeal this law," she said in a statement. "In the meantime, I remain committed to protecting the freedoms of every single Arizonan, and I am working to make sure women are able to access the care they need.

“A law from 1864 written by 27 men cannot be allowed to govern the lives of millions of Arizona women. It’s time to put politics aside and do the right thing."

Reach the reporter at maryjo.pitzl@arizonarepublic.com or at 602-228-7566 and follow her on Threads as well as on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter @maryjpitzl.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona abortion ban: What comes next after House GOP again rejects repeal?