'Public doesn't want a new Tory leader - it wants change'

The latest Ipsos Political Monitor for the Evening Standard reflects another month of all the wrong records being broken from Rishi Sunak’s and the Conservative Party’s perspective.

The Conservative vote share now stands at 19%, the lowest ever recorded by Ipsos going back to 1978.

Net satisfaction with Sunak himself stands at -59, the joint worst for a Prime Minister in that time and similar to Jeremy Corbyn’s record low of -60 in the autumn of 2019.

Meanwhile, Reform UK appear to be on the up, registering a record high with Ipsos of 13% this month.

None of this reflects a Conservative Party on the comeback trail. If anything, the polls have moved against the party since the start of the year.

So what is the answer for the Conservatives? There isn’t an easy one.

What is striking from our data is how there is little public appetite for a change in Conservative Party leader, which might be expected to be the logical consequence of headline numbers like these.

Just 37% of the public want another leadership change before an election.

This in contrast to the 55% who said the Conservatives should change leader under Boris Johnson in May 2022.

What is more, none of the potential candidates who might replace Sunak poll much better in head to heads versus Keir Starmer than the current Prime Minister.

All of which points to a public that is making up its mind and wants the opportunity to vote to change the party in government.

Earlier this year, 7 in 10 told Ipsos it was time for change at the next General Election. And there is more support for an election this summer than for just another leadership shuffle in the Conservative Party.

Yet public confidence in Labour remains elusive too. Keir Starmer’s net satisfaction ratings are more Hague or Miliband than Cameron or Blair.

The public remain split on whether the party is ready for government.

We should expect to see Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives try to use this as part of their answer, although it will be more effective if they can also turn around public pessimism over the economy, immigration and public services first.

However, it is the government’s and Prime Minister’s unpopularity that is more significant.

There might be doubts about Labour but there appear to be few about the Conservatives – voters want a change.

Sunak’s job is to change their mind between now and polling day. Time is running out for him to do so.