President Biden faces pivotal 2024 State of the Union, chance to reset race against Trump

WASHINGTON ― President Joe Biden faces a pivotal State of the Union address Thursday as he looks to silence skeptics about his ability to keep serving, convince restless Americans of a strong economy and reestablish the stakes of a likely rematch against Donald Trump.

In what could be his final State of the Union address, the moment could not be much bigger for Biden, who is saddled with challenges at home and abroad.

Biden hears heckling regularly from pro-Palestinian protesters as he tries to navigate the U.S. role in the Israel-Hamas war without further alienating his liberal base. He's been unable to assuage concerns about his age and ability to effectively serve another four years. Despite a booming stock market and historically low unemployment, Biden isn't getting credit for an economic rebound. His approval rating, already hovering in the low 40s for two years, dipped even lower in recent weeks.

And stirring anxieties among Democrats, Biden's fundamental reelection message − that the "battle for the soul of America" isn't over − hasn't clicked yet for the majority of voters: Trump leads Biden in most polls nationally and in battleground states that will decide the election.

"What he needs to try to do is begin to shape a narrative about the upcoming election because right now he's on his heels. This is an opportunity to push back," said William Howell, a political scientist at the University of Chicago.

Speech to set tone for general election against Trump

The outcome on Super Tuesday − and subsequent withdrawal of Nikki Haley from the Republican primary − all but guarantees a Biden-Trump November rematch, making this week the unofficial start of the general election.

Speaking to what will be his largest television audience until the party convention in August, Biden has a prime opportunity at the State of the Union to set the stage for the next eight months of the campaign, fleshing out contrasts with Trump that haven't crystallized among voters.

Biden spent a long weekend at the Camp David presidential retreat preparing for his State of the Union address, which will be the first with House Republican Speaker Mike Johnson presiding over a joint session of Congress. Biden worked on the speech with top White House aides Anita Dunn, Steve Ricchetti, his speechwriter Vinay Reddy and Bruce Reed, deputy chief of staff.

Biden left for Camp David last Friday holding a book that seemed to reflect the tests he faces: “Possible: How We Survive (and Thrive) in an Age of Conflict," written by William Ury and released last month. The book is billed as a guide of "time-tested practices that will help readers unlock their power to constructively engage and transform conflict."

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Biden "will outline an agenda that is about continuing to build on the progress that we've made over the last three years."

"The president has always been an optimistic person, as you all know, and even in the face of challenges that we have in front of us, he will share why he is hopeful about this country's future," Jean-Pierre said.

Not surprisingly, Biden will make protecting American democracy and restoring women's reproductive rights major themes of his remarks, according to the White House. Biden has blamed Trump's three Supreme Court nominees for overturning Roe v. Wade's constitutional right to an abortion and cast Trump, who tried to overturn the 2020 election, as a continued threat to democracy.

Biden will have a chance to renew his call for Congress to pass bipartisan border legislation that congressional Republicans killed at the urging of Trump. Last week during a visit to the U.S.-Mexico border in Texas, Biden challenged Trump to "join me" in pushing for the bill, which includes some of the strongest border enforcement measures intact in a generation.

Biden looks to unite a frayed Democratic coalition

Biden is expected to tout historic job growth under his watch and frame his record in bold terms −"accomplishing more in three years than most presidents have in two terms," the White House has started saying.

Biden will discuss the need to "protect" his agenda on infrastructure, lowering prescription drug prices and domestic manufacturing, the White House said. And he will position himself on the side of the working class by emphasizing efforts to take on so-called "junk fees," lower health care premiums and making corporations "pay their fair share" of taxes.

"I think it's a huge moment and even more so than a run-of-the-mill State of the Union," said Barbara Perry, director of presidential studies at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center. "This is sort of the kickoff of the real campaign. And he's got the whole world looking, and he's on national television, and he needs to hit it out of the park."

To win in November, Biden must unite a fraying Democratic coalition, with polling showing softening support from core constituencies such as Black, Latino and young voters.

A poll released Saturday by the New York Times/Siena College, which had Trump ahead of Biden 48%-43% among registered voters, underscored Biden's base struggles: 97% of Americans who voted for Trump in 2020 said they will vote for him again in 2024, but only 83% of Biden voters from 2020 say they will vote for Biden this fall.

Even though the State of the Union isn't a campaign event, Perry said Biden should not shy away from engaging with Trump directly.

"What's he got to lose? He's already lost the votes of the people who are bound and determined to vote for Donald Trump," Perry said. "He needs to enthuse those in his party who are clearly unenthusiastic about him to some degree and are concerned about his age."

Silencing concerns about age

For all the policy talk in the speech, Biden's first order of businesses is much more fundamental: convincing a public wary of his age that he's up for the job for another four years.

Concerns about Biden's octogenarian status amplified last month after a report from Justice Department Special Counsel Robert Hur into Biden's handling of classified documents portrayed the 81-year-old president as "a well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory."

"Most important will be him," Julian Zelizer, a history professor at Princeton University, said of Biden's speech, pointing to voters' concerns about his age and performance and Democrats' anxieties about Biden's ability to "withstand the Trump onslaught" of the campaign.

"The State of the Union is his best opportunity to just show by speaking and show through his presence that he can handle this," Zelizer said. "If there's a kind of doubt about that that comes out in the speech, it will clearly be a problem."

The Biden campaign downplayed national polling against Trump in a memo the day after the Super Tuesday, saying it "confirms what we know to be true: this will be a very close general election contest."

The memo, written by campaign chair Jen O'Malley Dillon and campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez, also said "upwards of 10% of voters" remain undecided, a share of the electorate "much larger than the current margin between Trump and Biden in polling." They said these voters overwhelmingly support Biden's policies and the Biden campaign plans to "aggressively engage" them.

Biden plans to make a post-State of the Union travel blitz to the Philadelphia area on Friday and the Atlanta area on Saturday, taking him to two battleground states, Pennsylvania and Georgia, that could decide the election.

The Biden administration is also dispatching Cabinet members and other top officials across the country to amplify the message.

The Biden campaign has long maintained Biden's struggling poll numbers don't accurately reflect where things will stand in November when voters have a clear choice − and consider the consequences of a second Trump presidency.

"If he can shape the terms of the debate, if he can shape this public sense about what's at stake in this upcoming election, he'll be able to recover some advantage that right now is slipping," Howell said.

But it's up to Biden to make the case − beginning Thursday night.

Reach Joey Garrison on X, formerly Twitter, @joeygarrison.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2024 State of the Union: Biden faces massive stakes during address