Trump cuts into Biden’s lead among young people, poll finds

Former President Donald Trump is cutting deeper into President Joe Biden's lead among young voters, according to a new poll.

Biden leads Trump, 45 percent to 37 percent, among people ages 18 to 29 in a Harvard Youth Poll released Thursday, with 16 percent undecided. That 8 percentage point margin is much smaller than at this point in the 2020 election. At that time, Biden was leading Trump by 23 percentage points among young people.

Biden’s margins widen when the pool is restricted to registered and likely voters. But, still, his 19-point lead over Trump among the voters under 30 who are considered likely to turn out is significantly smaller than his 30-point advantage this time four years ago.

Biden holds wide leads among likely voters who are non-white and women — up by 43 points and 33 points over Trump, respectively. He trounces Trump among the higher-educated set, leading the presumptive Republican nominee by 47 points among likely voters who are college graduates and 23 points among college students.

But Biden’s margins are far slimmer — or nonexistent — among other key demographics. He’s just 6 percentage points ahead of Trump among likely voters who are young men, according to the poll, and just 3 points ahead among white voters. When it comes to young people without college degrees, Biden and Trump are in a dead heat.

And though there are fewer of them, Trump’s younger voters are far more enthusiastic about the former president than their peers who are backing Biden, according to the poll. More than three-quarters of Trump voters said they enthusiastically support the Republican, while just 44 percent of Biden voters said the same.

The nationwide survey of 2,010 Americans aged 18 to 29 was conducted between March 14 and 21 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Respondents were surveyed online after being randomly recruited to join a panel maintained by Ipsos Public Affairs.

“Make no mistake, this is a different youth electorate than we saw in 2020 and 2022, and young voters are motivated by different things,” John Della Volpe, polling director for the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics and an expert on polling young voters, said in a statement.

“Economic issues are top of mind, housing is a major concern — and the gap between young men's and young women's political preferences is pronounced,” he said.

The Harvard youth survey is the latest to show Trump rising among the nation’s youngest voters, another potential warning sign for Democrats whose presidential candidates have long been able to successfully court that bloc.

Indeed, while Biden’s lead is 26 points among likely voters ages 25 to 29, it falls to 14 points among those ages 18 to 24.

Still, the survey shows some reasons for concern for Trump, too. Biden’s overall lead grows if the former president is convicted in any of his criminal trials, with the Democrat jumping up 10 points among all young adults, 8 points among registered voters and 9 points among likely voters.

But third-party candidates threaten to erode Biden’s margins, putting more data behind a scenario Democrats have long feared. Biden would still win the youth vote with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein on the ballot, the Harvard pollsters said, but potentially only by a handful of points.

And Biden’s job approval rating among younger adults is just 31 percent.

Meanwhile, Biden’s approach to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war could cost him at the ballot box. More than half of young adults, 51 percent, support a permanent cease-fire in Gaza — which Biden has stopped short of calling for — a viewpoint that cuts across party and demographic lines. Just 10 percent of young people oppose it.

Just a fifth of young Americans believe Israel’s response to Hamas’ Oct. 7 incursion is justified, while 32 percent believe it is not.