Poll: Stein leads Robinson in closely watched NC governor's race

North Carolina Democrat Josh Stein is seeing his lead over Republican Mark Robinson grow in one of this year's most closely watched races for governor, which is being advertised as a pivotal bellwether in the 2024 presidential election.

A new Quinnipiac University Poll released Wednesday shows Stein, the state's attorney general, at 52% among registered voters and Robinson, who serves as lieutenant governor, behind with 44%.

That's far better than the 2% lead Stein held over Robinson in two previous surveys conducted in early March as the two candidates vie to replace term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat.

The Tar Heel State will be in the spotlight this year largely due to how competitive it has been in the past few election cycles.

Donald Trump, who has endorsed Robinson, beat Joe Biden by less than 1½ percent in the last presidential contest. And of the 11 gubernatorial races this year, North Carolina is one of just two (along with New Hamsphire) rated as a toss-up by political forecasters.

Since the Super Tuesday primary on March 5, both the Democrats and Republicans have telegraphed what they want the 2024 contest to be about.

Robinson is relentless in bringing up immigration, crime and Biden, who has a net negative 22% job approval rating in the state, according to the Quinnipiac poll.

Democrats have focused on Robinson for a mountain of inflammatory comments, including for referring to former first lady Michelle Obama as a man, calling Beyonce as a "skank" and saying victims in school shootings were "media prosti-tot" for supporting firearm regulations.

Even some GOP officials have warned Robinson's crude remarks and political style could alienate some voters. Among independents, for instance, Stein leads Robinson by 9% in a head-to-head match, according to the poll.

But as for now the Quinnipiac survey finds the Republican nominee is virtually tied with Stein when voters are asked to rate their honesty, shared values, leadership skills and if they care about average North Carolinians.

"In the governor's race, a stunning contrast in values, experience and messaging is on display in a race that sees the Democrat ahead, but only by single digits," Tim Malloy, a polling analyst for Quinnipiac University, said in a statement.

Trump, Biden virtually tied; RFK Jr. in double-digits

Democrats have been hungry to put North Carolina back in their column in a White House race since then-candidate Barack Obama last won the state for the party in 2008. In each presidential election since, the state been decided by less than 4 percentage points.

Quinnipiac has the race as too-close-to-call with Trump holding 48% and Biden holding 46%, which is a virtual tie within the poll's 2.6% margin of error.

As has been the pattern in other swing states, Biden's margin takes a ding when the presidential field expands to include third-party contenders.

Related: 'One person responsible': Biden campaign blames Trump after Arizona abortion ruling

Trump receives 41% support versus Biden's 38% among voters when independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein are on the ballot.

Kennedy performs the best out of that group, according to the poll, raking in 12% with West and Stein both getting garnering 3% support.

Most N.C. voters favor abortion access

Much like the rest of the country, North Carolina has grappled with the ramifications of the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade.

North Carolina's GOP supermajority in the legislature passed a 12-week abortion ban last summer with limited exceptions in the case of rape, incest or the life of the mother that the state's current Democratic governor unsuccessfully tried to resist with his veto pen.

Advocates on both sides of the reproductive health debate have told USA Today this will be a decisive factor in this year's election, and the Quinnipiac shows that could favor Stein and the Democrats.

The poll shows 63% of voters think abortion should be legal, including 36% who said the procedure should be in most cases. That's more than double the 30% who believe abortion should be prohibited, including 22% who said it should be outlawed in most cases.

In terms of what North Carolinians care about, the survey found the economy ranks highest among Tar Heel State voters at 27%, followed by preserving U.S. democracy with 16% and education at 13%.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump holds slight edge over Biden in NC, poll shows.